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Owsley Brown II, a pillar of the city of Louisville in the truest sense of the word, passed last evening, at age 69.  It was quite sudden and unexpected and most of us who knew him are in shock, as he was a very vigorous and youthful man who was intimately involved with many charitable and cultural organizations throughout the city.

If you know me, you know that I am not overly impressed by those types we referred to at school as “born on third base.”   In the case of Mr. Brown however, I make a significant exception.  We were not close, not even “friends,” but I had enough interaction with the man in social and work situations to note both his grace and his almost anachronistic humility.   He had a smile for everyone, and never seemed out of sorts.

Some of the obituaries already printed (like this one in the Wapo) make mention of his charitable activities, but in truth these reports only scratch the surface.  The man truly embodied the aphorism “to whom much is given, much is expected.”  I believe his generosity will be his lasting legacy in the city.

I excerpt the beginning of the Washington Post obituary below:

Former Brown-Forman CEO Owsley Brown II dies at age of 69 after

brief illness

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Former Brown-Forman Corp. chairman and CEO Owsley Brown II, who took the company founded by his great-grandfather and spread its reach to liquor stores, bars and restaurants worldwide, died late Monday after a brief illness. He was 69.

Brown’s sudden passing drew an outpouring of reaction from political leaders who praised his business skills and philanthropic spirit.

“Louisville lost a great friend today; he will be missed,” said Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who praised Brown’s “pioneering career” and “generous philanthropic efforts.”

Brown oversaw the Louisville-based company’s transformation into a formidable player in spirits markets worldwide. Late in his career, Brown-Forman shed its Lenox fine china and Hartmann luggage divisions to focus on its core beverage business.

Brown-Forman is one of the largest American-owned spirits companies. Its long lineup of brands includes Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Southern Comfort and Finlandia vodka.

“Owsley was a truly remarkable man with a brilliant mind,” said current Brown-Forman CEO Paul Varga. “His combined analytical and creative talents enabled him to be both a visionary and a practical steward of the company’s business.”

In its last full fiscal year, Brown-Forman reported net income of $571.6 million, or $3.90 per share, on revenue of $3.4 billion. The company has nearly 4,000 employees worldwide.

Brown, a Yale graduate who earned a master’s in business administration from Stanford University, served as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Army at the Pentagon, according to a Brown-Forman release.

He began his Brown-Forman career in 1968, continuing a family legacy that began with the company’s founding in 1870.

Brown rose to become the company’s CEO in 1993 and added the title of chairman two years later. During his tenure, Brown-Forman dramatically boosted its international presence and modernized its marketing efforts.

When he took over as CEO, less than one-fourth of Brown-Forman’s net sales came from outside the U.S. By the time he stepped down as chief executive officer in 2005, nearly half of Brown-Forman’s revenues were generated from international markets. That trend has continued, and the company now gets about 55 percent of its total net sales from non-U.S. markets.

Brown retired as company chairman in 2007 and from its board of directors in 2008.

He was also a prominent philanthropist and preservationist known for his support for art, music and environmental protection.

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I have done nothing different with my portfolio today, save that I took out a large TZA insurance policy to augment my SKF-lles position.  I still maintain my already noted position in AGQ and my other small gold and silver positions.  I am still about 40% cash.

I am again traveling this evening and all day tomorrow, but will check in as I may.

Best to you all.

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Sometimes I don’t know what’s wrong with you people.   Hootin’ and hollerin’ like a bunch of purple Kool-Aid grape apes, rooting on a man’s demise in slo-mo barely contained rage.

I speak, of course, of last night, when there were more than a few on these boards who were ready to spit on a broken wheelchair in their haste to condemn we beknighted silver bulls in our darkest hour (that dark hour being about 3 am last night).   What an ugly display… and most ungentlemanly.

But these ungainly thugs were left grasping at phantoms by an hour or so before the market open this morning, when silver had fought it’s way back to just under $30 and ounce.   More important, the silver trend line held today in AGQ.   Not, as I had thought, at first support, but rather exactly at the long term trend line.

Sometimes when these things work so perfectly, it’s almost like a thing of magick (sic).  This morning, right around 10:00 am, I stood in awe as the candle bottom stopped right at the rising trend line that’s marked this bull since the ’09 Recovery, hovered there for about fifteen minutes, and then slowly — inexorably — made it’s climb through second support, all the way to that first support line.   Note the change from yesterday’s AGQ weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The bounce off that uptrend line is very strong ju-ju, especially given that we are still extremely oversold in the PM and silver sectors specifically.  We might get some “stall” at that first support line we stopped at today, or we may not.  Silver is up this evening again, although we know from last night how great the overnight swings can be in this sport.

I do think that uptrend line will be tested at least once more, unless the dollar begins to break here significantly.   If it does, I will likely supplement by adding more EXK, SLW and AG to the port.   One thing is for sure… you have your line in the sand for all major stops, whether mental or fixed.

Best to you all, and try not to let the hatahs hate too much on you.  It’s hateful.  😉

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u69VNU4pJ4I&feature=player_embedded 450 300]

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Some said we were crazy on Friday when we began “buying the blood” late in the afternoon like a bunch of crepuscular vampyres banging our fists at the front desk of the Red Cross Depository.

And maybe we were.

But there was a plan in mind, and one part of it was taking into account the massively oversold status of the metal in the near term.   The other was the support levels we were beginning to hit.  I thought we were ready for a bounce of some velocity.

That doesn’t mean I think this down-stroke is over.  Not altogether, at least.   Just like I don’t think this overall market bear cycle is over, and that we’ll get further down action there as well.  What I do believe is that we’ll get that nice rebound here, and then have to be out again for the next drop when we whack near-term resistance.    Note the following markup of the AGQ (double silver) weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you will note, the party should be over by $150 or so, and I’ll be out of much of that AGQ by then, if not sooner.  Because the weekly is showing that while the RSI is near-term oversold, the remaining stochs are pointing to further ruination.  What’s more, that long term trend line is beckoning (as per the chart above), and it’s very likely that we will see it one more time (at sub $100) before we see new highs again.

What I don’t think, however, is that we get another deflationary event like we did in 2008.  Not for a while now, at least.

Of course, this is a play fraught with risk, and I will have stops in place that will respect the volatilty of the double-ETF, while also accomodating my overall risk profile.   I implore you to do the same, and perhaps consider SLV as a replacement vehicle for this trade if you lean to the more risk averse.

My best to all of you this weekend.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Uxc9eFcZyM 450 300]

Save That Schit For the Morning After

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A funny thing happened whilst I was away from the office today (for the second day)... I got murdered.   Usually when I’m out and about the market is pretty accommodating, like an Edwardian butler in white gloves and tails.   He  may give me a light workout, just enough to suffuse my brow with a light patina of salty perspiration, nothing more.   Even then, he’s there to hand me my plush towel and smoking jacket at the bell.

But today I was accosted by a gang of wiry Cockney longshoremen in baggy jodhpurs and nail-soled leather jackboots.   Reviewing my 50% position in gold stocks like ANV and silver stocks like — you name it, but SLW was down almost 15% today — they proceeded to bash me about the shoulder and ribs with brickbats and lengthy cords of hard salami.  They said something about leaving my face “intact” so there’d be no questions at work tomorrow.

Nevertheless, I speak to you from traction after suffering a near 7% bullshit beating today (don’t believe me? Check out XRA’s action today, and GFYS!), and am lying here in my linament-soaked bandages, waiting for a bounce to get out of some of these damaged names, as per the plan of yesterday.

A bounce, you say?  Jake, you addled fucker, you were thrown down one too many escalators today! How say you “bounce,” pray tell?  Well, here’s clue # 1 on the $SILVER commodity chart.  It’s been almost 15 months since we last hit the 200-day EMA, and yet we hit it today.  The RSI is oversold egregiously as well:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for the $HUI today… well, you know the sad sad end of that story.  Like Brad Pitt’s relocated Northern Irish Provisional Army man, Frankie McGuire, said to Harrison Ford’s NYPD sergeant, Tom O’Meara  in the 1997  IRA potboiler, The Devil’s Own —

“Don’t expect no hoppy endin’, Tom.  It’s not an American story, it’s an Oirish one.”

Yes, and it appear’s our Baby $HUI ended up just as perforated as young Frankie did at the end of that movie.   What’s more, it looks like there’s still some room to travel even closer to Hell:

But don’t cry for me, Argentinians.   I am getting up and hitting back twice as hard, Chicago Politician-style.  In fact, I swung a haymaker at a bunch of AGQ this afternoon a little too early, at $175 and got stopped out.   I may grab some more on the open tomorrow though.   Also, respecting The PPT and it’s historically oversold levels, I dumped out of half of my TZA hedge and loaded up on a very large dollop of TNA at the close.   I may even add to that if we have a last blow off tomorrow morning.

Don’t let the Man get you down, folks.   Let’s hang together, as we sure don’t want to hang separately.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L12072ZZP4&feature=related 450 300]

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Geez, a guy goes road trippin’ for one day and lookee here-–  the market melts down like a fat guy at a Bette Midler Film Festival.   I’m going to be honest here… I don’t really give a cut quid about the overall market.  I’m heavily invested in the dread instruments SKF and TZA, so I’m well protected against the whims Mr. Dow and his Standard and increasingly Poor friend.

What I’m not protected against is the whims of the $HUI, gash damnit to the hezzy.

So I took some egregious blow to the head after all today, my “bad ETF’s” not withstanding, especially at the end of the day when the whole market dove for the subterranean depths.  That said, it wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been, and the $HUI remains in that channel we described yesterday.     Check it:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note, we haven’t even broken through the 20-day EMA here, which has been recent support.  I guess I’ll just have to eat some sammitches and wait to see what kind of follow-through we get tomorrow.   My major problem, as always, is the dollar, which is breaking up back to those fib levels we talked about last time.  Look at how damn close we are again:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow will probably be do or die for both the dollar and the $HUI, so let’s try to pay some attention.    I’m going to be out again tomorrow morning, but I’ll check in and make sure the markets are behaving– and you are too.  If the coast is clear, I’d say the hot silvers are your best bet — AG and EXK and even MVG.  Otherwise, you can chill and have your girlfriend make you a sammitch.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dzpTFQR0Tg&feature=related 450 300]

Whatever happened to gay rap anyway?

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Today was kind of interesting, no? False alarm breakouts all over, and almost none of them held…

Save for the PM miners of course. Sort of like a… a… PM Dawn, no? I took my cue off the Baby $HUI earlier today, as it had gracefully touched the bottom of it’s trading channel and then sprung up like a coked out stallion loose in the mare barn.  True, it sold off some at the end of the day after that initial hop up.. but I still like the pin action.  Note:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Despite the long wick in that last candle, I like how there’s still lots of room to run on the RSI and the other stochs.   This puts me in the mind that we are seeing a genuine handle breakout here.   On this action, I doubled up on my XRA and BAA positions, as noted in The PPT today, right before lunch.  I also added to EXK, AG, GDXJ and SIL.   I even bought some more RGLD, just to add to that pile.

Some other nice movers today that I own, but did not add too (much to my chagrin) included AXU, ANV, AUQ, AUY,GSS, NUGT, IAG, NXG, etc.  Keep an eye on these for further developments tomorrow.

As I type, the dollar is below $77, Gold is well over $1,810 and silver is over $40, indicating the $HUI is steering us in the right direction.   Enjoy tomorrow, as I will be “road-bound” again, and checking in from remote airport locations & scruffy hotel bar rooms.

My best to you all.

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