Two O’Clock Scholars

Just a few quick notes on some positions.   A lot of our shiny friends either gapped and faded, or dropped a bit today.    Lately, a lot of the PM’s have been gaining strength towards the end of the day.   Here’s what I’m looking at right now:

[[ANV]] Gapped up on Friday’s over Thursday’s $7.29 close, went all the way to $7.96 and then came screaming back to earth when people started abandoning the precious plays for more “frapjous day” picks today.   I alerted The PPT about the gap fill potential, but it never got lower than $7.32, and is now at $7.40.   I’d wait and see for the fill, but that may be as close as we get.

[[EGO]] did fill it’s gap from Friday morning — to the penny at $9.75, and now looks to be coiling for another move.  Again, alerted The PPT, thanks to the easy to read (and write!) “User Notes” page over there.    At $9.87, this looks like it’s still following the liquidity here.

[[MON]] actually gapped up THIS morning, with the big market move, and then proceeded to give it all away and then some.   I’m not ready to give up on my MONGO’s quite yet, but I want to see MON hold this $81.00 level here or I going to think we’ve got a failure to communicate ovah heah.  MON did not fill that gap to $85, this morning (it got to $84.35), which gives me some comfort as I believe it will do so before deciding where to go next.

People on The PPT have been asking me for an entry on [[SLW]], and I said that “nine out of ten times” SLW will fill that gap you saw on Friday morning.    Trouble is, you may have to wait a long time, and then there’s always that “tenth time.”   Right now SLW looks more like it want to test this morning’s highs than fill last week’s gap.  We’ll see.

As expected, the $HUI — our “Gold Bug’s Index” — has rattled about in the $400 resistance range, and has been turned back for at least a brief rest.    I expect this may be a good week to accumlate if you haven’t yet availed yourself of the riches of General Jackson.  

Keep a close eye on [[TBT]] as well, as it was up strongly yet again (I did away with half of my hedged call position there this morning).    If rates continue to rise, inflation and it’s hedges will have the day.

Happy hunting and gathering, Jacksonians.

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It’s been a very special first month.   What’s important to recognize is that there’s a bull out there, you just need to understand where it is, and stick with it.  I have not highlighted the week of the 15th here, but that was a down week for the portfolio.   And yet, look how we ended it– up almost 25%  for the month.

Not every month will be like this, and especially not when we start to hit the skids again.  However, I believe firmly that the JCHP will continue to outperform it’s comparable indexes through the coming weeks and months, and therefore preserve your capital.    That’s what it’s all about in the end, anyway– banking your coin, and enjoying the freedom and independence that act brings you.   My best to you all.

Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio Performance
Name	5/1/2009	5/29/2009		Weekly ∆		Monthly ∆
ANDE	$       16.56	$     25.10		7.54%		51.57%
EGO	8.00	$       9.92		5.53%		24.00%
GDX	33.04	$     44.16		5.02%		33.66%
GLD	86.95	$     96.20		1.85%		10.64%
IAG	8.11	$     11.27		3.78%		38.96%
MON	85.25	$     82.15		-5.15%		-3.64%
NRP	24.09	$     23.66		6.53%		-1.78%
PAAS	16.65	$     23.42		9.34%		40.66%
RGLD	36.19	$     46.57		5.22%		28.68%
SLV	12.31	$     15.47		6.69%		25.67%
SLW	7.72	$     10.52		12.63%		36.27%
SSRI	17.19	$     23.89		9.94%		38.98%
TBT	50.20	$     52.64		-1.74%		4.86%
TC	7.11	$       9.60		11.11%		35.02%
TSO	16.01	$     16.94		4.37%		5.81%
			AVG	5.51%	AVG	24.62%
Comparable Indexes
Name	5/1/2009	5/29/2009		Weekly ∆		Monthly ∆
SPY	$       87.89	$     92.53		3.94%		5.28%
QQQQ	34.37	35.38		5.49%		2.94%
DIA	81.92	85.39		3.04%		4.24%
NDX	1,396.62	1,435.57		5.31%		2.79%
RUT	486.98	501.58		5.02%		3.00%
			AVG	4.56%	AVG	3.65%

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Serious, would you rather I go on about the egregious wins of the Jacksonian Core?  Like that’s a surprise? 

No,  aesthetics take the fore tonight.  It’s Friday, after all.   And let me finish with a bit of comedy:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=166L3cE3zyk 450 300]

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	29-May	% Change
ANDE	$    25.10	2.74%
EGO	9.92	1.43%
GDX	44.16	2.67%
GLD	96.20	2.08%
IAG	11.27	3.58%
MON	82.15	3.99%
NRP	23.66	2.96%
PAAS	23.42	1.21%
RGLD	46.57	1.46%
SLV	15.47	3.62%
SLW	10.52	5.73%
SSRI	23.89	2.93%
TBT	52.64	-5.61%
TC	9.60	6.79%
TSO	16.94	-0.35%
Avg %		2.52%

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Ho hum, another glorious day in the world of General Jackson, loather of all that is bankish.  The precious metal picks continue to rip higher with very little rest in between growth spurts.   Soon I shall have to confine them to their rooms.

And yes, our MONstrous friend continues to vex, but I’m happy about my Alex Karras  (MONGO call) purchases today, and shall contrive to buy more upon additional weakness.   Five down days in a row for MON is quite unusual, and as you can see from yesterday’s chart, such stretching of the rubber band often leads to a quick snap back, where I am prepared to harvest my MONGO wins.   We shall see.

TBT also finally retreated, to the great relief of my increasingly expensive sold calls.   This retreat may be a good thing, all things considered, as it takes some pressure off  the “total collapse” scenario which could take other pieces of our worthy Jacksonian Portfolio with it, in thoughtless abandon.

But we’re here tonight to attend to some unfinished business — specifically the long delayed admission of [[EGO]] into the Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio.   It narrowly beat out it’s more elder candidates [[GG]] and [[AUY]] who remain readying in the Triple A leagues, batting for huge average whilst simultaneously stomping on Treasury officials of the twisted moustaches (sic) variety.

I’ve owned EGO for a while (as I have GG and AUY), and it’s been a PPT favorite for quite some time.  However, I wanted it to show the same “imminent breakout” characteristics that my other JCHP picks had before I added it to that worthy fold.   I believe today that sign came.  

 As much as I hate to roll out a pick on a large gaining day (7.28%!), I would feel remiss to hide this one’s light under a bushel any longer.  If you look at EGO’s daily chart, I think you’ll see why:

And the weekly chart shows an even lengthier breakout from a long term consolidation zone.  

 

Today’s move was significant, and while we will have to monitor it’s continuation (as it may break below the breakout area again), I think we’re going north from here.     So let us raise a toast to our new Jacksonian, which I hope will make EGO-maniacs of us all.     Best to you all.

Caveat: If you insist on following the Jacksonian path into EGO, it’s dollars to doughnuts you’ll be trapped on the N-train to Atlantic Avenue with three unemployed psych majors who will ply you with the failed dreams of a liberal arts major until you fork a sawbuck at them.   And you might lose other moneys as well.

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	28-May	% Change
ANDE	$    24.43	-0.65%
EGO	9.78	7.24%
GDX	43.01	4.34%
GLD	94.24	0.85%
IAG	10.88	4.11%
MON	79.00	-1.10%
NRP	22.98	0.22%
PAAS	23.14	5.71%
RGLD	45.90	4.22%
SLV	14.93	2.40%
SLW	9.95	5.85%
SSRI	23.21	11.75%
TBT	55.77	-2.40%
TC	8.99	3.21%
TSO	17.00	0.53%
Avg %		3.31%

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General Jackson Takes on Timmah Geithner and the Members of the First Federal Reserve Expeditionary Forces

I will be purchasing some Mongo’s (July 75 MON calls) after I finish this up, but first I wanted to trill the trumpet a bit on the key metals component of the Jacksonian Core.   That SSRI additional purchase two days back well below $21 is proving fortuitous as that Jacksonian worthy is pushing 11%  up today and over $23 per share upon most recent check.

In addition, the other JCHP silvers [[SLW]], [[PAAS]] are all above 5%, and tiny [[EXK]] has — as predicted — jumped back to it’s downtrend line again at $2.10 (to my chagrin, I wasn’t quick enough to get more this morning).   Again, I think it will be safer to purchase EXK when it’s well past the downtrend line, and perhaps after a retouch of that $2.10 barrier.   These minors can move quite quickly.  

Keep in mind also that [[AGQ]] is the double silver ETF that I recommended back at the $43 mark.   I continue to add to it on pullbacks.

On other fronts, it looks like our ever-so-brief retrace is about done, and we are ready to commence with this summer’s precious metal bull.    Enjoy the sun, friends.

Caveat:  If you purchase the JCHP holdings, it’s quite likely the Ghost Of General Jackson will visit the foot of your bed every fortnight, and lecture you windily about states rights and other such ephemera.    You may also lose risk capital in such an adventure.

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Update:  I bot 20 MONGO’s at $7.60.   Will likely add to this position.

Update:  I bot another 20 MONGO’s at $7.80.   Mongo LIKE Sherriff!

CDE breaking out @ $14.45 (I already have a small position).

Update:  I bot another 5,000 EXK at $2.11.   (See Caveat above)  

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Update:  Jacksonian Spokesman LL Cool J with a special message from SSRI:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7l250E5uM4 450 300]

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Forgive the silly allusion, but I needed a snappy entry to counter a depressing day for one of our Jacksonian Stalwarts: [[MON]].  I figured Mr. Smiling Rastaman can offer some surcease to our collective agita.    MON got some bad news today, courtesy of it’s own management.  I’ll boil it down to this piece from the release:

For the quarter ending May 31, the St. Louis-based agricultural products provider (MON 79.88, -5.37, -6.30%) said it now expects to earn $1.15 a share, down sharply from its prior target range of $1.60 to $1.62 a share.   The reduction caught investors off guard.  Analysts polled by FactSet Research were looking for earnings of $1.61 a share, on average.

Yeah, that’s a pretty big reduction in earnings, but it turns out it’s all about some extra competition in it’s herbacide business, which is frankly, the ass-end of it’s value proposition, providing less than a third of overall gross margin.  

Seeds and traits are where it’s at, ladies and germs — that’s what garners the high end of MON’s 60+% gross margins and almost 30% net margins.   You think you can make that kinda coin selling weedkiller?

No sir, it’s the intellectual property that make this market leader a Jacksonian Core Holding, and why I will continue to trade around my position rather than part with it.   Here’s the IP driver update from that same press release:

The company’s seed and traits business, however, continues to show strength. The company now forecasts the segment to deliver gross profit toward the upper end of it’s the range of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion it forecast for the year.

“The projected increase of more than 15% year over year reflects the combination of greater value, growth in the company’s branded seed businesses and expanded use of Monsanto’s trait technologies,” the company said in a release.

So granted, I was a little late in not selling some calls when MON banged against it’s 61.8% fib line (daily) last week (although I did mention it to you, readers).   Thanks goodness, I did part with the “booster” calls I had bot in the high seventies around their second quarter earnings announcement.   Here’s the good news, I will be buying “booster calls” again here, soon, and most likely tomorrow.  I will alert you, but here’s what I’m seeing:

You can see where my target is on the daily, which is showing pretty seriously oversold conditions (thought i can always get more oversold, can’t it?) — right at the retest of that old downtrend line.    Now, the weekly is relatively coincidental, with the long term 61.8% fibonacci line looking like nice resistance at a little over $78.35 or so.  

I will be watching these levels tomorrow, and likely buying July $75 calls to take advantage of a bounce to at least $84-$85.

One last update… the precious metals continue to consolidate here, and I think I shall be taking a strong look at adding some junior silver [[EXK]] tomorrow, and perhaps adding [[EGO]] to the Jacksonian Core, as well.    Best to everyone.

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	27-May	% Change
ANDE	$   24.59	-1.44%
GDX	41.22	-1.48%
GLD	93.45	-0.33%
IAG	10.45	-1.04%
MON	79.88	-6.30%
NRP	22.93	0.79%
PAAS	21.89	1.16%
RGLD	44.04	-2.95%
SLV	14.58	1.11%
SLW	9.40	-0.95%
SSRI	20.77	-0.24%
TBT	57.14	3.76%
TC	8.71	-0.23%
TSO	16.91	1.08%
Avg %		-0.51%

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