Smite Me With Thine Silver Sceptre, Oh Lawd

One of these days I’ll shut the hell up about moving you into real money assets as quickly as your penny stock-spindling portfolio will allow.

But that day is not this day.   Not when the latest news clacking over the Jesse Livermore-era news ticker  in my offices reveals how Kommandant Barack is now going to nationalize GM — but “only temporarily.”   Turns out Dear Leader wants just enough time for Rahm Emmanual and Lanny Davis to wheel that aging aerophin-appended Caddy into his airplane hangar chop shop so to whack it up for distribution to loyal U.A.W. gummint cheese recipients.  

Tanks you veddy much, Kommandant, and dont’ forget to save the steering wheel, the white wall tires and the chrome ashtrays for the bond holders!    I said leave those white wall tires, you! 

So if the good fellahs in charge of everything  — and damn, they really seem like they are in charge of everything these days, don’t they? — are that cavalier about the big buck bondholders (some of whom were stupid enough to give them campaign money just months ago) , doesn’t that make you just a wee bit nervous about how well they are going to treat that other little U.S. bond obligation: The Federal Reserve Note?

So have fun, and be a silly piebald carnival piker if you’re so compelled.   By all means, stuff yourself into the clown car with all the other PPT nutjobs .  Throw some funny money at chip stocks that have been moribund since Bill Gates was still a virgin, if you feel that exercise will further your spiritual growth.   Go nuts. 

Hell, you’ll probably find me in that same Yugo  from time to time, playing Parcheesi with Ragin Cajun  whilst simultaneously sword fighting  The Chart Addict.    I’m human, after all, and enjoy an OTB rocket ride for greasy coin and bed bugged comfort as much as the next guy. 

Just don’t get too homey in that clown car, Homey.  Five will get you ten it will soon be remandered by the EPA for egregious CAFE standard violations, environmentally malevolant tailpipe emanations,  and toxic silly string abuse.    Then it’ll be medical experiments for the lot of us.

Well, not those who have been prudent about tendering some savings to the Jacksonian Core Holding Portfolio, whose hard money and hard asset plays will serve to keep some of us cosy with hot buttered rums and chedder toasties , whilst the OTB pikers scrape at our doors.  No luck for them I’m afraid.   They shall be turned out with a stern warning from Cuddy, our trusty footman.

But Cuddy welcomes the purchase of silver this day, as the Three Musketeers SSRI,  PAAS and  SLW scored again, with wins of 7.64%, 5.39% and 3.75%, respectively.   Do you get the feeling the market is trying to tell you something, Jacksonians?  

Beating even silver today was coveted (but not precious) metal molybdenum, as  JCHP member TC rang the bell with gains of 9.36% today.   All in all, the Portfolio only had two slight losses, and both in the red hot agricultural sector.  I expect MON (-0.69) and ANDE’s (-1.09)  small losses to be more like rests than ultimate pullbacks.   Still, this is why we’ve diversified even within this stable grouping, up 2.85% for the day.   Now quickly, onto our daily review:

ANDE — $22.62  (-1.09%)

GDX — $38.43 (+2.51%)

GLD — $90.96 (+0.66)

IAG – $9.88 (+1.23%) 

PAAS — $19.74 (+5.39%)

RGLD – $40.66 (+2.16%)

SLV — $13.98  (+2.95%)

SLW — $9.13  (+3.75%)

SSRI — $20.86  (+7.64%)

TBT — $51.04 (+1.07%)

TC — $9.00 (+9.36%)

TSO — $17.22 (+3.11%)

Daily Average:  +2.85 %

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A great day for Jackson, the posthumously mentioned President to whose name  I’ve appended the Core Holdings.   This other Jackson, I’m not so sure, as I haven’t heard much from him recently.  It’s quite possible he’s retired now,  having achieved the final goal of his career — having an African American pro-abortionist receive an honorary degree from Notre Dame!

Er,  I mean seeing an African American elected U.S. President of course! 

Oh who knows, anyway?  He’s smiling about something at least, which, as Aunt Martha will tell you,  is a good thing.

Today was surprising, to say the least, especially as I had been worrying my fingernails  all weekend contemplating the words of my oft-prescient asset manager friend Chivas on the Rocks.   To be specific Mr. Peanut Butter Jelly Time told us Friday — “Hit the deck, it’s (likley a) Gap down Monday!” 

Luckily for me and mine, I weighed that sage advice against the lowing of the PermaTard community also gibbering and capering all last week about the End Times and the Death of the Sun, like some primitive bushmen frightened by the eclipse.   Volcano fodder, I claim these pagans be, and so good contrarain indicators as well.  I held my ground, by Jupiter’s Stone, Mars’ gall bladder and Juno’s clavicle.

So whether it was donkey dumb luck or Irish stubborness (some might say those’re the same) that kept me long –save for the small position in SRS (which I won’t sell) and the hedges I’ve mentioned previously — I really can’t tell you.  However, that stance has served me well these last nine weeks, and I shant turn agin’ it until I see the curl o’ the wave. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not seeking to get measured for a clown coffin, complete with “Bozo holes” in the base for shoe accomodation.   We are building the Jacksonian Portfolio for uglier days, after all.  But for now the ship sails in Carribean sun and we shall bask on her decks alongside the complimentary Hooter’s girls and chilled Dos Equis. 

Heck, we may even keep this [[SONS]]  and [[QSII]] position a couple of more days just for shizzles and the gizzles.

In the meantime, your Jacksonian Core Holding Portfolio is as substantial as the enameled decks of our sun bathing clipper ship.   Mind, it will serve you well when it’s time to batten down the hatches.  Today’s readings: 

ANDE — $22.87  (+7.32%)

GDX — $37.49 (-0.42%)

GLD — $90.36 (-1.30)

IAG — $9.76 (-0.71%) 

PAAS — $18.73 (+0.38%)

RGLD — $39.80 (-0.43%)

SLV — $13.58  (-1.38%)

SLW — $8.80 (+2.56%)

SSRI — $19.38 (+1.68%)

TBT — $50.50(+2.79%)

TC — $8.23 (+7.58%)

TSO — $16.70 (+0.60%)

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UPDATE: The Jacksonian Silver Plays are leaving the station (SSRI, SLW, PAAS).  I also bot 5k more of EXK for giggles (ie, NOT a Jacksonian stock by a long shot).

Caveat:  If you decide to purchase EXK your family will be kidnapped by gypsy werewolves one day after the Lone Ranger stops by to borrow your last silver bullet cartridge.   And you could lose your investment.

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Great news for those of us on the Jacksonian Sound Money Bus.    Mega –“Correctumundo” mortgage backed bond-shorting hedgie  John Paulson of Paulson & Co. has been piling into gold and gold miners in the first quarter of the year.   Propitious for us, no?

From the Bloomberg article:

May 15 (Bloomberg) — Paulson & Co., the hedge-fund firm run by billionaire John Paulson, increased its investment in gold and gold-mining shares in the first quarter, according to a regulatory filing.

As of the end of the first quarter, Paulson was the largest holder of SPDR Gold Trust [[GLD]], an investment fund that buys gold bullion. The New York-based firm owned 8.7 percent of the fund, valued at $2.8 billion as of March 31, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

That position was established as a hedge, the company said in a statement, because its funds have a share class that is denominated in gold rather than in dollars or euros.

Paulson bought or added to several gold companies in the quarter as well. He purchased a 15 percent stake in Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF  [[GDX]], a fund that mirrors the move in the Amex Gold Miners Index. That stake was worth $638 million at the end of the quarter.

Paulson also bought a 2.6 percent of Gold Fields Ltd. [[GFI]], becoming the fourth-largest holder of the Johannesburg-based gold miner.

The investment firm, which manages $26 billion, also bought an additional 2.4 million shares of Kinross Gold Corp  [[KGC]]. Paulson owned 4.4 percent of the Toronto-based gold producer and was its third-largest holder at the end of the quarter.

Paulson reported owning an 11.3 percent stake in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. [[AU]], also based in Johannesburg, in March.

Rejoice Jacksonians, you are in the company of “the smartest guys in the room” since 2005.  

A hat tip to my friend and fellow Precious aficionado Gary Savage at The Smart Money Trader  for sending me the good news.

Ciao for now.

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Updated translation of the above for my hardened Gaelic friends:  Latha math dhut!

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No, not that Rachel Alexander, this one!

The 2009 Kentucky Oaks and now 2009 Preakness Winner!  Would that she’d only run in the Derby, instead of boot stomping the field in the “fillies only” Kentucky Oaks on the day before, and winning by some 23 lengths.  Ridiculous.

Of course, the incredible “last-to-almost-first” race run by Derby Winner Mine That Bird in the Preakness makes one wonder if we wouldn’t still have a Triple Crown contender had his Derby jockey Calvin Borel decided to ride him instead of winner Rachel Alexander (whom he rode to victory in the Oaks) in the Preakness.  

The argument could be made that Mine that Bird’s late race speed was not fully exploited by his new jockey, but who knows?  I guess the extra 16th of a mile in The Belmont Stakes in three weeks will tell the tale in the end.   Stay tuned…

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As promised, here’s the weekly returns on the Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio:

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Before you all get all loose wheeled and boot-rollicky because Timmah Geithner decided to extend the last few remaining TARP nickels  to carnival midway operators, portable potty lessors and, oh yeah — bullshit life insurance companies, let’s keep in mind it’s the Transports ($TRAN) that run this market.

And the Trannies look a little ailing …or to be less dramatic — fatigued:

Note how we’ve broken through the 20-day EMA that’s been support since the March lows?    After such a massive (9 week run) a pullback here to the 50-day EMA would not be unusual and in fact is a healthy circumstance… if  it’s just a pullback to the 50 day EMA.   Anything further and we could be talking a wholly different Devil Dawgian scenario.   

But   for now let’s let the Zone of Indecision be our guide since it so fits with our EMA’s and support levels.   Below that level, there be dragons I fear.    

The weekly $TRAN chart gives me pause too.  Check out this bearish engulfing somnabatch:

And right off the 34-week EMA too!  I expect we should flirt with that support level at least, and if we break through it, it could get far nastier.   I have already hedged my largest transport position — UPS, but in the event of a break of that support at around 2900, I will be getting short in everything save the Core Porfolio in a much larger manner.

Now let’s look at the $SPY weekly chart one more time for synthesis:

As expected we did pause in that 940-950 area, and are in fact retracing to what looks to be the 13-week EMA, which has been support for almost six weeks now.  Whether we head back to our second target zone (in the 1010 area) will depend on the bounce, or lack thereof, left in the 13 week EMA here.  

 Personally, I think we head back up one more time after a pause, but that’s almost as instinctual a call as it is a chart reading one.    In any case, we can continue to use the reliably signalling Trannies, as well as the above $SPY weekly, to provide us a rough guideline for the weeks ahead.  

Happy Preakness, and Victoria’s Day to our Northern neighbors.   I should be back tomorrow with a weekly update on the Core.   Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1Qvnixz1TE 450 300]

Not so bright, but a good guy to have around when the Fox is in the hen house!  (No really, that’s a metaphor… really!)

The Amex Gold Bugs Index (AMEX: $HUI) is one of my touchstone index’s for my precious metal portfolio.    The $HUI contains mostly unhedged gold mining companies and a couple of crappy silver miners (CDE and HL) , who don’t really serve as good representatives for the silver mining community (unlike Jacksonians SLW, PAAS, and SSRI). Jacksonians Core gold holdings [[EGO]] and IAG are members, however, along with “possible” new entrants GG and AUY.  The full fifteen components are listed here.

Because of it’s silver component, I find the $HUI even more useful than the ETF GDX as a precious metal miner index.   So let’s have a look at the daily and weekly charts to see where we are:

As you can see from the chart, the current daily is showing signs of a pullback, likely to the 20-day EMA at $323 to $325.   This is perfectly healthy — and in fact welcome — given the recent drive to the long term resistance line pictured.   I expect it won’t be long before we are above that line and into the free air described in the “breakout zone.”

As for the weekly:

You can see we have broken above the long term downtrend line on the weekly chart, and are also seeing a bullish cross on the 13-34 week EMA’s.   The midweek doji indicates we may test lower, but again, it looks like we are headed out of the consolidation zone soon.

Last, I annotated the long term weekly chart of SLW just for shits and giggles, to show where it is in relation to the $HUI weekly above, and to point out some obvious (from a weekly prospective) target zones.    One thing I would point out is the long term fib lines show the 38.2% retracement line at $9.02, which we tested earlier this week.   Again, it’s perfectly natural to have the price level turn away at that important point.   Given the strength of the $HUI,  however, I expect that $9.02 will not hold twice.   Viz:

I will try to get back later tonight to update the Jacksonian Core performance stats, but I have to run to pick up one of the boys from lax practice.    You know, “the aerobic baseball?”

Best to you all.

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Jacksonian Core’s Performance  for 5/14/09 was largely flat, with ten “down” positions keeping their losses in the pennies.  On the other hand, of the four stocks in the black today, two —ANDE and TSO– were up over 5%, making it a market neutral day overall.:

ANDE — $20.88 (+5.51%)

GDX — $38.05 (+0.29%)

GLD — $91.03 (-0.07%)

IAG — $9.78  (-0.91%)

PAAS — $19.20 (-0.31%)

RGLD — $40.56 (-0.10%)

SLV — $13.85  (+0.29%)

SLW — $8.84  (-0.11%)

SSRI — $19.89 (-0.22%)

TBT — $48.94(-0.71%)

TC — $7.63 (-0.90%)

TSO — $17.21 (+6.96%)

Have a nice evening, all.

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