_____________________________
Some prefer to chart the mathematical spreads between petroleum jelly and its tasty chemical equal, petroleum margarine (I can’t believe it’s not butter!), all the while poking a charred oak barrel stave into the entrails of a freshly killed hedge mole for further signs of rain or drought.
Me? I’m a man of simpler methodologies and observations. And over the last ten years, there’s rarely been a more able indicator than the following monthly view of this pathetic store of national goods and services:
Note that we’ve recently breached one near term support. I don’t expect the dollar will be done keening into the night until we reach that second basing area, well below $71.00.
Luckily for us, that means we can still make some lemonade and Jack out of these lemons and white corn. Despite the opprobrius doomsaying of the terminal top pickers, I’m coming across a number of charts that do NOT look like the now-cliched blowoff top we’re all expecting in the physical commodities, and specifically, the precious metals. In this case, the miners have become “the tell” after lagging the physical commodities for some weeks now.
Take for example one of my finest stalwart Jacksonians, ANV. Remember this set-up chart from mere days ago?
Pretty measured flag and pop formation right? Now look again, mere days later… Does this methodical ascent give you pause to believe we’re pricing ourselvs to oblivion here? Not me:
I get the same frisson from a number of other names that have pulled back and consolidated while the commodity metals themselves have gone somewhat bonkers. As a result, these babies have room to roll for at least another goodly ascent to the stratos. Consider AAU, which I’ve accumulated quite a bit of in these last weeks. Recall this weekly chart from just before Valentine’s Day?
Now look at what has taken place just these last two days:
Does that chart scream out “exhaustion” to you? Me neither.
Last, let’s not forget some metals which aren’t so much “precious” as they are scarce. Because of that concern, we can see moves and profitability in names like REE and AVL like we’ve seen with some of our precious names. My favorite of the moment continues to be QSURF, which broke to new highs today like it was hocking silver on the side:
Go get ’em, tigers.
_____________________________
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Jake is Dr. Goldfinger.
Mr. Gint! I had to look up opprobrious – it’s a great word. Many many thanks as always good sir.
Jake, I’m watching gold touch 1533 right now….which gives me wood, but I digress….any opinion on CGR? I know the bought deal should close soon…
Thx, I like teh AAU too!
10-4
Jake, I really looked everywhere for reasons why Great Panther, after posting decent Q earnings in mid-April, sold off in the days after it reported. Could find no reason so bot some before the big move up yesterday. Some on twitter said the selloff was in response to a move up of 366 percent in the past year. No matter, yesterday it stopped right at the 50 day after a 17 percent move. I’m still in but I want to thank you for putting it on my watch list. A lot of folks bot BEFORE the drop but thanks to you I just stayed patient and was rewarded with a nice entry.
Dilution.
Do you like Great Panther (GPR), Goldbug? It is one of my favorites, right up next to AG and EXK. I just increased my position and am waiting for that $5 sweetspot JakeGint has spoken of. (I think it was Jake, anyway)
Are you familiar with Golden Predator? They are up in Alaska exploring. It’s another one I really like, although they are not producing anything, but then neither is MDW, but for the long term I think it might be worth accumulating.
Also, Silvermex Mining down in Mexico.
Correction- Silvermex Resources (SLX.V)
And GPD is in the Yukon, not Alaska. I should probably just go back to keeping my mouth shut.
I liked Great Panther a lot at one point, but I sold it on the dilution announcement. Once a momentum darling loses its momentum, it usually struggles for a while, as GPL has.
Yesterday’s 17% rise suggests that a lot of folks saw it as a short, pushed their luck, and got taken to the woodshed for their trouble.
I think that in the environment we’re in right now, it’s hard to say what any given gold or silver asset is going to do. We are entering a blowoff panic stage where buying is likely to be indiscriminate.
My advice is to spread your chips liberally (sic) across the table, watch the dollar closely, and be prepared to exit the aircraft early, before it crashes.
I am focusing on gold names right now as I have a lot of EXK, AG, SLW, AXU, SVM already.
Those names are ones you’re probably familiar with from Jake: ANV, AAU, GDXJ, XG.
Also, GORO, NGD and PZG.
Good hunting to all.
I can’t find anything on the dilution. All I saw was that their production was up this year and things were looking good.
If you have the report, can you link it? I just want to know what it was for. If it was to give some bigwig a gazillion shares, than yes, I agree with you.
Insomnia.
Another fantastic post! Thankyou.
Great article Jake. AAU looks money.
several gold/resource stocks had compression breakouts today, which are trading signals for the short term and not really anything to do with company specific fundies.
The tickers were
MDW, GRS, ANV (noted in your post)
any thoughts you care to share, always appreciated. MDW in particular looks good for a trade
They all look quite nummy here.
I will look more deeply into it…
++++++++++++++++++++
It’s weird how MDW held up today. I have watched that stock for so long and still can’t get a handle on it.
Insiders have been buying like crazy though, and for as long as I have watched it.
Maybe they really do have something wonderful going on, I don’t know.
This is what Fidelity shows as insider ownership, and Barrick owns quite a few shares. Maybe this is what the buyers are seeing that look promising. Maybe that’s normal in gold mines, for the biggies to own big chunks? I read some where that the one of top executives wife was buying huge amounts and am kind of surprised that doesn’t have to be shown as insider ownership.
Top Insiders Name Position Total Holdings Last Transaction Type Last Transaction Date
HAWES, GEORGE T. Director 8,215,600.00 Acquisition (Non Open Market) 05/07/09
SHEERIN, MATTHEW Beneficial Owner (10% or more) 7,779,815.00 Buy 06/10/10
BARRICK GOLD CORP Beneficial Owner (10% or more) 5,500,000.00 —
YU, FRANK F. Director 1,709,645.00 —
SHERIFF, WILLIAM M. Director 1,691,650.00 Acquisition (Non Open Market) 03/31/08
NEWELL, ROGER Director 300,000.00 Option Execute 03/28/11
BAYLEY, BRIAN E. Director 118,250.00 —
BRANHAM, ALAN DAVID Chief Executive Officer 100,000.00 Option Execute 02/12/08
MCALISTER, BRIAN JOHN Director 100,000.00 Disposition (Non Open Market) 10/06/08
WOLFUS, DANIEL E Chief Executive Officer 56,500.00 Buy 07/30/10
Predictive Insiders
Balack Oblama owns some?
Brasphemy!
_____
The 4 minute mile and self-fulfilling prophecies / charts:
I’m in the Dan Norcini camp. Miners are undervalued compared to the metals. No one really knows what the price of silver should be. What’s going on now is price discovery.
Imho, most are betting that pm’s cannot hold these levels; ergo, they are priced right. I’m betting against them.
For those who don’t know this story, way back when, it was determined that some arbitrary number of ticks (240) on a clock was the minimum time possible for a human to run 1 mile. Of course it’s true, how could anyone possible run faster. Surely, 4 minutes even was the limit of human performance. For years no one could brake that time. In the weeks following the breaking of that “barrier”, many who could not run that fast, ran faster.
Moral of the story: charts are great for showing what has happened in the past; not nearly as good at predicting the future. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz3ZLpCmKCM
Correction
Imho, most are betting that pm’s cannot hold these levels; ergo, they (the pm miners) are priced right. I’m betting against them.
Yeah, that was how I understood it.
______
J.I.G……..
Mr. Gint I must say that your analysis is quite excellent. I think one could develop an indicator based on the number of page views vs. the topic being discussed. You may call it the Uppington Indicator if you wish.
Bonne Chance!
Biff
Anyone have input in the ’emphasis of matter’ from the AAU auditors?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Almaden-Explains-Emphasis-of-iw-202091548.html?x=0&.v=1
They describe themselves as a project generater, which to my understanding means someone who goes out and finds it, stakes a claim and then gets someone else to put up the money for the rest and then they get royalties, or sell it right out to them. My understanding is very limited so I found this on found on Kitco to explain what they mean by project generater.
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/6780
Looks like paragraph is required for switching to international accounting standards
It’s basically a provision that they are forced to compy with if they are to meet GAAP accounting standards. It says that if they don’t get additional financing, they can have a “going concern” problem.
This is true of nearly every single junior miner, fwiw. If you note in their other announcements, they just filed for a rights offering, which will allow them to do an internal financing with shareholders that already own the stock.
This should greatly reduce diliution that would come with a more regular publicly offered secondary.
________
Another typical day:
silver & gold, new highs
SLV, up
SLW & my other pm stocks down.
How is SLV able to buck the trend?
http://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/11/03/m949111/great-panther-silver-announces-21-million-bought-deal-financing
That last one was for you, chanci.
Thanks! I kept pulling up their old ticker symbol.
CGR closes their bought deal 5/4, should be interesting to watch pps.
Gold now thru fiteen-fitty. Resistance, pfft…..