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The $HUI, he is glo-rious.
The Fly, he is un-der the bus.
The Man, he is Chuck Nor-ius.
You’ll lose teeth if you
Neglect to floss.
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Be at peace if you have no gold
This might not be the time to hold
Y’see…
The oscillators all grow old
And all my calls have since been sold.
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Check the graph if you have the mind
To see the $HUI crescent’s very rind
That’s flashed to me the warning sign
To take my nuggets off the line,
Chunk my Barca-lounger…
lever, and… recline.
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Now, as a caveat, I’ll have you know
If the buck stays under the weekly low
Price at $80’s recent undertow–
Then I’ll be next to risk a throw
On Sainted Saxon Knight…
Lord Ivanhoe!
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Good day to you, sir!
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Your poetry is 10 million times better than your political discourse and the poem is not that good. But seriously, very nice post and presentation. Congrats on your amazing run.
Logic is not always art, that’s for sure, but its still troubling to some.
Reality too.
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Very nice sir.. I hope some much deserved rest for you is at hand as well. Thanks Jake.
Jake,
Are you saying to unload all positions for awhile or just cut back? I’ve been using some trend following software that had suggested that I get out of IAG awhile back and although I haven’t’ yet, all of the other precious metals, namely ANV,SLW, PAAS, SSRI, and GLD are still good to go!
Of course, this kind of stuff (trend following) is always a little late.
Vogon poetry at its best!
Ouch! It’s doggerel sure, but Vogon??
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IVN is a monster. Marc Faber a director there.
A trader friend of mine, who is often a notable contrarian indicator, said yesterday that he is a seller of gold @ 1.3k he bought at 1k,(though he never really bought it). Which makes me wonder if gold may just blow right through 1300?
She’ll be coming round the mountain, when she comes…
CVM 0.810 +0.075 (10.24%)
What’s your break even on this hog?
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Em-bare-assed to say, $1.61.
Jake since criticism is permisible here; maybe best not to read each others blogs for awhile.
True, pm’s have run, but is now the time for major hedging or selling some? Maybe with your large gains it makes sense, but to me it seems the risk of being out of pm’s is much higher than being in.
But by all means, keep your job. I have no doubt that one day Fly will go from short to long pm’s because he is able to turn on a dime when the time is right to bank shiny coins.
fly has never actually touched a earth dollar with his bare hands.
he told me.
I’m not going anywhere — It was just a misunderstanding. We’ve cleared it up.
I am only hedged with options, I haven’t sold any of my underlying dragon’s hordes.
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Hey Jake:
Have you seen this article?
http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-hyperinflation-2010-9
It seems to echo what you have been saying all along about the currency. One thing that interested me was when he talks about investing in emerging markets instead of the US market. Have you ever considered investing in emerging markets in addition to the PMs? I was thinking about some foreign fund ETFs like IDX, ECH, EPI, EWM, EWZ. What do you think?
Certainly the emerging markets are safer than our own right now from a total return standpoint. They are still risky, however. I own or have owned EWZ, but I like individual names like PBR and CEDC. I also like companies that sell booze into those lands, like DIA.
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Thanks for the interview article, btw. Love Faber, and have followed him since his days in the Barron’s round table.
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Jake, what’s your take on the PBR offering …
Is this a buy now or after dilution if at all once it’s a national oil company for the most part?
PBR Pabst Blue Ribbon is a buy @ $2/can (if conditions are optimal) i.e. ice cold.
Dude you’re getting ripped off. I get 6 for $5.00. Ice cold. Taxes included.
Suppose the dilution is already baked in …
The dilution is already priced in, but I never like to buy a stock too soon after an offering unless it’s plummeted in price first. Sometimes the market overreacts and it’s usually just a consequence of supply and demand over a brief period of time.
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I think Jake meant DEO not DIA. If not, pardon.
You are correuct. You can tell how much I check that particular ticker. I own a bunch of it, but its one of my “Never touch it” stocks. Like PBR, btw.
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on the “tropics, honey or big city” part of that comic strip, what does he mean “honey”?
where the fuck is honey.
He is asking his wife/girlfriend if she wants to go to the tropics or the big city. I can’t believe no one else has commented on the evil humour (sic) of this cartoon.
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It’s the only thing I actually understood in this post… 😉
Jake
Am also a fan of Faber. Schiff too, however I seem to remember you dissing Schiff.
Are you a fan of Schiff and, seperately, Austrian economics?
As a side note, my thoughts align with yours regarding your discussion of healthcare in another thread.
I forgot to mention that I also have had great success in the last few months in PM’s and Brazil stocks EWZ, BRFS and GFA. Like PBR but couldn’t get in. Will look into the others.
Yes, I am very much in agreement with the Austrian economists. I don’t know a whole lot about Schiff, but if he’s running against that lying asshat Blumenthal in the Senate race, I like him (but I think he may have lost in the primary to Vince McMahon’s wife, of all things).
Glad to see we’re in agreement on healthcare. One can never solve the problem by chopping up the golden goose and serving it in parts.
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oh god please someone answer my question.. i have to know
“honey” as in he is calling his girl. emphasis is on the comma
that’s supposed to be a chick to his left and the man in the hat to his right
fuck you allllllllllll
Jake
As the dollar has seemingly crashed through 80 on the index, despite intervention, do you think it’s time to hop back into PM’s that were hedged/sold for an 80 bounce? 77 next level?
I’m going to make sure the break is not temporary first.
Yes– 77-78 is the next level down.
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I dont think it’s temporary as it has now shrugged off two intervention attempts, bernanke is swearing by increasing inflation and with elections coming up, QE II may be around the corner…
Additionally, what is your feeling regarding inflation and higher stock prices. My first instinct would be that inflation would push stock prices up, but Fly swears that has not been the case throughout history.
On the PPT, I posed that that may be due to prices rising due to inflation until markets realize that their currency isn’t just weakening, but is worthless. And then stock markets would crash. In the end, markets would show a correlation to a devalued currency. What do you think?
Positive correlation, that is.
A couple of things…
One QEII isn’t “coming” it’s here. Two, that doesn’t mean this dollar cycle doesn’t need a rest and it should have taken one in this area. If we stay down, I’ll cover my covered calls.
Three – w. regard to Fly’s take on inflation’s effect on stocks, he is looking at a macro view, which is true in the longer term. In the near term, stocks will respond like commodites and “reprice” with a dropping dollar just like a lump of coal, or gold will.
In the longer term, only stocks that can retain value in an inflationary environment (think commodities and very well IP-protected tech stocks) will do well.
I call it “the barbell strategy” and perhaps I shall write a post on it tonight.
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Yeah, that’s basically what I was saying…short/medium term “repricing” but ultimately few will survive……….
Also, what do you mean QE II is already here? I know they decided to reinvest the MBS stuff but are you referring to something else?
Look at the dollar. They’ve been printing since late July.
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looking for that post, so i can continue banking it! you’re the man!!!!!!!!
Gold high today thus far?
$1,299.65
Jake original physical purchase (not nearly enough, though) — $271.
(Silver was at $4.50 at the time and I got more of that).
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Do you play the downside at all in equities, Jake?
You mean shorts?
Sure.
But now is no time to short.
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Yes, I meant now, as in the last year or so. I have only been hedging my downside when we seem overought rather than trying to make money short.
Was wondering what you were doing.
I have not been “short” as in actively attempting to short to make trade money, since March of ’09.
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I would guess Jake was buying gold when the Bank of England was in the midst of selling tons of their gold at various auctions and that was the bottom signal.
And then they elected the idiot head of the Bank (Brown) as Prime Minister.
He was some Ex-Chequer (sic), that’s for sure.
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Jake- I believe you will like this video that just came out today and is now making the rounds:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6weDMH-SCOE
Thanks, that’s pretty awesome.
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