Step away from the rabbit…
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Pay no attention to Lady Mahket with the butcha knife. This is the chop part of the summer, but I’m not fooled. I know what’s coming this year and so do you.
It’s an American election and it’s an important one. The forces of “status quo” are going to do what they can to make sure it happens in as stable an economy as possible, despite the double barrells of ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank that have been administered to our collective guts.
Make no mistake, we’re going to be dealing with those two awful — and I mean awful — bills for the next decade. My hope is that the perennially corrupt Congress will be rendered poleaxed for years to come just in unravelling them both. That is truly our best possible outcome, given the unintended consequences that have popped up even on the very first day of the horrific bank “reform” bill’s signing. I point you specifically to S&P and Moody’s suspending their ratings for fear of being sued into (perhaps righteous) ignonimity.
This is what you get when you allow a group of largely innumerate corrupt Democrats (and select boneheaded Republicans) access to the vital wheels of commerce. Truly, they are en masse, a shit show. Tell me again how elections don’t matter.
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Surprisingly, I’m sure, you’ll find my answer is grabbing undervalued gold, of which we have recently come upon a trove. First, the weekly $HUI is approaching oversold whilst bouncing off a crucual long term (34 week) moving average. That’s been a healthy sign in the past:
Then, a specific recommendation, one of my favourite Jacksons is a bargain. Look at the weekly ANV chart for my take on the situation:
I am back home this evening, so I will try to catch up on some sleep and be here tomorrow for any queries. Best to you all.
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Do you have any method to determine a more than abnormal pullback? I just feel like gold might be going through a massive shakeout, but am not really sure and potentially has much more downside(wouldn’t bet on that). Thanks
“Wall of Worry” is a good thing. It’s when you are wholly confident that you should be cautious.
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GDX – higher lows, and higher highs last 3 days of trade is not a bad sign in these “unusually uncertain” times.
GDX is a solid “catch all” pick. As is GDXJ, though I don’t think it as effective as GDX.
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You’re right, when GDXJ explodes, and you catch the move, it’s awesome.
It’s lagging today and I’m being more patient.
Nice call on this quick move earlier this morning though Jake….
I wonder how this new provision of Finreg affects BAA: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/20/AR2010072006212.html
The arrogance of these corrupt Congresscritters knows no bounds. Who knows what other surprises they have in store for us?
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Thought I’d share this observation I heard yesterday.
Before Obama signed the Finreg bill he said:
Paraphrasing: “No longer will people be pushed by lenders to sign complicated paperwork that they don’t understand.” And then proceeded to sign a huge stack of papers he neither read or understood…
“This is the chop part of the summer, but I’m not fooled. I know what’s coming this year and so do you.”
Are you saying that the market will not break down due to the upcoming elections? I’m sure the powers that be would like it that way, and they’ll do what they can to make it happen, but it doesn’t seem that they have as much control as you seem to think they do. SPY dropped about 20% from this time in 2008 until 2008 elections. The November high did fall on election day, but it was still waaaay down from where we were in midsummer. Maybe it was a fluke, but it happened then, and it could happen now.
on the contrary my good Dr.i’ll make a wager,that, in this particular instance, about the fuckery obama has up his sleeve, he has a couple of silver bullets left to make the market rocket in order to keep his crooks in play.all that malaprop has to do, is to give just a dog’s scent, that he will keep the G.W. tax cuts in place…then sit back and watch to see the reaction…….. when that crook took office,i predicted that this turd was vying for the nobel peace prize, and i made my prediction public,on the forum thread @ stockpickr in the political section. a yr later,well you know the rest, normally i never do shit like that,but when you have lived in the windy all your life, ,you know just how these fuckery artist’s work their shit……..this dude is the biggest POS that i have seen in all my life. this is as nice as i get,without having to be misconstrued as a biggot,or a hater.
Powers that be wanted the Obamanoid in. 2008 was an outlier year.
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@Drummer — do not worry about being misconstrued as a bigot. That’s their primary defense shield for this charleton and you should not stand for it.
It’s a shame that the loose application of the term “racist” has become akin to the story of the Little Boy who Cried Wolf. What happens when the real wolf comes?
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Jakey,
You should really turn off Glenn Beck and the rest of FOXY TV every now and then. Clear the air. Take a walk. There’s reality out there. Seriously. The analogy you’re making is off–to put it mildly…
cheers,
Spooks, what is with you left wing nuts? Why do you presume that I even watch the idiot box or the idiots tjhat reside therein?
Just because you’re gettting your life orders from the Olbermannsturbanfuhrer doesn’t mean there aren’t tstill some of us who can still read a Constitution, or an economics text, for that mattter.
Side note: Please, my creativity-lacking lefties, please think of another trope besides the dimwitted “J’Accuse! FOX News!” monkey japery. You grow so insidiously boring.
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Spooks, for you — the truth may set you free.
But most likely, you’ll remain in the memory hole.
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Is it possible that fundies (specifically, recent mineralization reports) have kicked in for ANV and put it on its own path independent of sector? black sheep of miners?
Certainly a possibility, but I find these phantom drops are often an excuse to load up. In this secular bull, remember, ANV is still an M&A possibility, even w. disappointing mineralization reports.
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Jake,
Advise please.
Currently, I am 10% in precious metals, with 2.5% IAG, 2.5% SLW, and 5% GLD. As a result of reading some of your previous blogs, I realize that you don’t particularly like GLD.
So, if I decide to get out of GLD (currently underwater by about 5%.. maybe I buy stuff with other money and get out of GLD at break even), how would you position that 5% if you were me?
Thanks!
No, I don’t NOT like GLD, or gold in general, and I probably own about the same amount, proportionally, that you do.
It’s just that I think the miners have more leverage in a rising gold market, that’s all. GLD is almost a volatility hedge in this circumstance.
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5-0
the reason you should be investing in GLD is due to the secular bull in Gold
unless you believe the bull is over, selling for a loss is a daft thing to do as it will always come back around
miners can under or over perform but the physical will always correct itself until the bull completes
if you believe in the secular bull, you should be accumulating on dips, not selling
im no pro investor but selling gold during each down turn during the last 10 years would of been a mistake
(I think gold can go lower from here but the smart money is accumulating not selling)
btw those are just my thoughts and not trading advice
the bull might be over and you will lose everything. including your house.
what do I know?
Thanks Frank!
That’s why I bought GLD originally and I’m not planning to sell, but may trade out some for the miners. In other word, keep GLD here and buy some miners here and than later sell some GLD when it’s up to make up for the purchase of the miners.
The reason I’m asking is because Jake seem to like the miners better.
True, but only because of the operational leverage factor. GLD is just the metal, the miners are making more money off a rising metal environment because their fixed costs remain largely the same, and their variable costs don’t rise as fast as the POG.
Get it?
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So Jake,
What I’m asking is in what names and in what percentages, would you divide up that last 5% if I were to buy the miners were you me?
Two ways to play:
1) 2.5% GDX, 2.5% GDXJ
and
2) 1% SLW, 1% RGLD, 1% ANV, 1% EGO and 1% IAG. Leave room for EXK and PAAS too.
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Jake,
Remember from the previous post that I’ve already got 2.5% SLW and 2.5% IAG. You’re not saying in option 2 to add an additional 1% of each or are you?
In case I’m confusing you. Just say I’ve got 2.5 IAG and 2.5% SLW, but want to add another 5% of several names. The question is what would you add if you were me.
Don’t want to bug you, just want to make certain we’re communicating, so that when the time is right I add the right stuff.
my local coin guy,i buy 2010 american silver eagles, he’s 3 bucks over spot. he’s got them all.he’s been there for well over 30 yrs. scuttle butt there, and in the coinage community from well over 6 months ago 1500 on gold.they talk about it like its a done deal. but what amazes me,these old dudes , i think their right.
I would buy 100 to 1000 oz. ingots in silver. I just don’t see the percentage in buying the coins from a storage standpoint.
For gold bullion, however, I like Maple Leafs, pandas, etc.
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