Endurance

“More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” — Allan Stewart Konigsberg
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Woody Allen once said “80% of success is just showing up.” To some extent that’s true, as reliability is an attribute valued across a wide spectrum of employers, friends, relatives, lovers, etc.

Why do you think [[MCD]] sells so many Happy Meals? Because their burgers are made of some top quality succulent sirloin? No, it’s because the little kid in us knows we are going to get the same overdone blandburger-and-salty-fry combination every time, and that’s comforting.

So too, the comfort of a trending market soothes the savage breast of the coked-out daytrader in all of us. But even a long term trending market is not without it’s harrowing pullbacks and trials of faith. For that we need perspective, humility, and in the end, endurance.

Endurance and a willingness to sit and wait for the trade to come to you are the key to the type of long term wealth accumulation we like to talk about here. Remember how scary gold looked a few weeks back, when we thought maybe the bull had finally tapped and the dollar was re-ascendant? Note how I said the 34-week had been a great place to buy in the past, despite the strength of the dollar? Look at the dollar gold chart I’d shown you a few weeks back:

As in the past, the 34 week Exponential Moving Average (“EMA”) has been a reliable signal in this uptrend (all but for the one dreadful period at the end of 2008, where the 200 wk EMA was the stopper).    Note in this next “nine year bull” chart how reliable the signal has been, and also, how it seems the “touches” are starting to get farther apart.  

 I’m not sure what to make of this “touch extension” business, but I will point out that as bull markets enter their parabolic stages, they tend to spend longer and longer periods above the common daily and weekly moving average “rest-stops”  (ie, 20, 50 and 200-day on the daily and 13, 34 and 200 week on the weeklies).  

I am of the mind that our hard earned endurance will pay off here, friends, and the dollar will soon break down again, and that should push our gold:dollar ration back over $14 again, to the great chagrin of metallic ursines the world over, but especially those on the upper Left Coast.     

For turnaround Toosdee (sic), I would expect further deterioration in [[UUP]] , and therefore highly recommend a late day grab of some Fronteer Development Group Inc. (USA) [[FRG]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and [[SVM]] .

I also believe Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] is almost done pulling back, and it should move above $70 this week, as the market continues to roll over wide-eyed, squatting Kodiaks.  As a consequence, Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] is also worth a look.

Best to you all, fellow Konigsbergs.

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