I got good news and bad news on the market front, ovah heah. The good news is, I’m going to show you my Russell 2000 chart ($RUT), which I’ve been using to parse the market since before the first bank meltdowns of late 2007. You see the Russell, even more than the [[SPY]] in my opinion, gives you a better view of the “overall market” than any other index. You can also check it’s volume using [[IWM]] it’s ETF.
I find that the Fibonacci retracement lines work very well in analyzing the Russell as well. Take a look at where where we found ourselves this morning:
As you can see we are bumping up against one of the stronger Fibonacci “Golden Ratio” (inverse) lines at 38.2% (the other being the actual Golden Ratio of 61.8%). I expect that means at least some sort of rest stop here. That said the “good news” is that 13-34 week cross which implies further bullishness should it continue. As I have attested, and I think even Woodshedder has agreud (sic) — the 13-34 week “golden cross” is one of the most significant bullish or bearish indicators out there.
Let me know what you think, but don’t be surprised if I disregaurd (sic) your thoughts in a cavalier, dismissive way, whilst inserting snuff up my nose, all atop my “knee-controlled” white charger.
One other point — some of these biotech unpinned hand grenade small craps are pulling back a little today, and since I sold off 2/3rds of my [[HEB]] -brews yesterday, I may dip back into the Red Sea to rescue some more pedestrians today. I also like [[IMGN]] here (thanks Henry!), but will not add more as I am “full up” to the brim with it. [[SVA]] also bounced nicely off it’s trendline today, but I’d wait to see if it drops back to $2.90 before taking a chance on any of it. The last insanity is [[CTIC]] which has been a darling of The PPT, along with [[BEE]]. I think the latter looks a lot more promising, but have not gotten any yet.
As always, I recommend you stay as far away from the above paragraph as you would a Mossad Hit Squad with your name at the top of their list. There’s no question your purchase of any of the above will warrant a quick waterboarding, coupled with a full-torso Obama campaign sticker “body bind”, finally finished off in a late night rowboat assisted drop into The Great Salt Lake, where you will bob for hours, your pitiless cries ignored by disinterested Mormon seagulls.
On the precious metal front, as I suspected, more pullback, but the metal rustlers cannot disguise all — [[PTM]] looks strong here, comparatively. Slow and steady wins the race, old boy. Best to you all.
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Update: I bot 2k more HEB to take with me across the unpaved Red Sea @$3.10.
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Looks like senor HairPlugs has something ‘bullish’ up his sleeve for monday.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D98KJUJG0&show_article=1
From article above:
On Monday, Biden said, he will join Obama in announcing plans to “ramp up” implementation of the stimulus program over the summer but offered no details. When a reporter asked him, Biden smiled [shite eating grin?] and said that will happen Monday.
The last time we had a 13-34 cross, it didn’t work out so well.
Jake,
Do you have a long-term price target on ANDE?
From prior thread:
Jake, when you have a minute can you put on your didactic hat and explain what’s going on? So job # was good meaning that recovery is underway. So why is oil going down? I know that USD has firmed up and oil is priced in USD but doesn’t supply/demand trump the currency relationship? And gold is down because USD is up, but why is that?
Cuervo had a good answer, in that there was some dollar short covering today. I think it’ll be temporary, as you can see the long bond (TLT) is still under fire, and TBT is up today.
As for gold and oil, they are dollar hedges, so they were off a bit, again temporary. Gold needed a rest here, as I’ve been saying all week, but I doubt we’ll get much of a drawback. Slow and steady.
The last time we had a 13-34 cross, it didn’t work out so well.
I expect you are talking about the one in mid-June above?
Note how it was amidst a four week downturn?
Now look at where our cross is coming in today.
See the diff?
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Do you have a long-term price target on ANDE?
No, that’s why it’s a Jacksonian. These are all supposed to be long term-type holdings. If I think it’s not going to be good for the longer term, I will hit the eject button, but not before.
If you want a short term trade, the very important 61.8% long term fib is right at $33.
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See the diff?
Yes, and the RSI was in the green too. I’m not much of a chartist, but I do know this party is overstaying it’s welcome…but I’ll stay until I hear the cop sirens.
If the inflation trade is to really kick off, foreign currencies need to stop collapsing at this obscene rate. That’s perhaps another reason the dollar strengthened this morning; bets that our currency will “suck less”, so to speak.
I’m hoping the currency traders will find their investments at least pacing the dollar. If foreign market incentives diminish, any remaining reason to hold dollars on the sidelines goes out the window.
The govt needs to talk the dollar up so it can keep borrowing money like the crack addict that it is.
The end game, however, is to see an orderly decline in the dollar so we can get back to selling our shinola overseas.
A massive deflationary spiral will not accomplish those ends, by the way.
Yes, and the RSI was in the green too. I’m not much of a chartist, but I do know this party is overstaying it’s welcome…but I’ll stay until I hear the cop sirens.
That’s the plan.
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If the inflation trade is to really kick off, foreign currencies need to stop collapsing at this obscene rate. That’s perhaps another reason the dollar strengthened this morning; bets that our currency will “suck less”, so to speak.
They all should collapse, and as it is, they are taking turns, musical chair-style. That’s why we’re buying gold, as it should hold it’s value even as the dollar “strengthens” relative to schitola.
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That’s the plan.
Party on, my friend.
I’m a big fan of the precious metals, even have some Silver Dollars and a couple of those Pamp-Swiss gold bar thingamajiggers.
I’m a little leery of PTM, right here, though:
http://tinyurl.com/pn2g3n (Stockcharts PTM 60 min)
I’m posting it here now @ approx 1358 EST so I can see if I’m wrong. Anyone with a better perspective please teach on!
Good luck trading to all.
I noticed the move in BEE yesterday. I couldn’t find a reason to get excited about it. Where’s the bad news? I thought you were going to lament the PMs or something.
forget the tortise and the hair, I’ll destroy them all…
I might self destruct later, but it’s a much more enjoyable ride!
Jake, why is gold selling off today? There’s a historical relationship between USD and gold?
Every day cannot be a bright sun shiny day in regard to gold. Sometimes the rain must fall. Buy more on the opportunity.
Where’s the bad news? I thought you were going to lament the PMs or something.
Did you look at the chart?
The PM’s are just pulling back, as predicted. Thats’ not bad news.
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Jake, why is gold selling off today? There’s a historical relationship between USD and gold?
Well, yeah. Gold is a hedge against all fiat currencies. As are any commodities. The neat trick about gold is that it’s a hedge against both inflation and deflation.
But gold’s drop today is likely as much about needing a rest before breaching $1000 as anything else.
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NVAX got a swine flu vaccine contract from the NIH yesterday and the stock went parabolic. They have (or at least had) good sponsors. They did a $20 million private placement at $4.35 with Kleiner Perkins during the 2006 bird flu scare. Not sure if they’re still involved or not.
http://www.novavax.com/download/releases/Novavax_Release_Feb_27_2006.pdf
Just passing it along if you want to diversify some of that HEB.
…unless, of course, the entities that bought gold in a panic decide their money is better suited elsewhere; perhaps other commodites or growth stocks/ bonds or dollars, thanks to a recovery/plunge (depending on why you bought it).
Then perhaps gold bugs will envision children with magnifying lenses descending upon them.
The perception of gold reminds me too much of the real estate mindset in this country. “Shit can never go down. Ever.”
BTW, just pulled up the proxy and Kleiner Perkins and Prospect Ventures still have board representation at NVAX.
If it gets down to the low $2.00s again, I’m going to buy a few thousand shares as lotto tickets against a revival of the swine flu scare this fall.
Schi-
Already “diversified” with Chinese lotto burrito “SVA” on the vaccine front. Looks like NVAX is following HEB to armless and legless land…
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Jake, plug in a 50 week average into that chart. You’ll like.
Then check your email. I sent you the backtest results of the 13/34 week cross on the RUT.
The perception of gold reminds me too much of the real estate mindset in this country. “Shit can never go down. Ever.”
You see that perception out there?
Most people are still scared shitless to hold gold.
And there’s no way it’s seen as RE circa 2005. More like “shelter in a storm.” The lightening here will be partly a result of the loosening of that mindset.
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Shed, yes I noted last night that it was “right on” the 50 week. Had 50 in there from the daily chart, so I stumbled on it.
I’ll check my email.
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So $RUT could be good, could be bad? Sounds like a josh post. Color me cornfused.
Shed, your mail would not open.
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Scum, it’s really not that difficult, I swear.
The 38% line indicates a pullback, or a rest. I do not think it indicates a “downturn” however, because of the 13-34 week cross.
Capisce?
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Re platinum and palladium
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=avT9stgr3JHY
I am getting a bit antsy on some BGU market positions I have had since March. It has done excellent but I am feeling this run is running out of steam. Having said that, it could go on for another couple of weeks or so…
It all depends on how the market deals with this attack on the interest rates.
Trannies lagging too, even though UPS was up today.
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Lindsay, that would be eggselent if platinum were trading off of catalytic converter sales.
I don’t think it is, however.
It’s the gold platinum ratio you need to look at, imho. Maybe I’ll do a post on it this weekend.
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Trannies lagging too…
Now you’re speaking my lingo!
Yo, Jake. Esplain me something re: 13-34 cross. Daily or weekly view?
Here’s BOOM for example. You can see what happened on the daily view: http://twitpic.com/6p4nr
Now weekly: http://twitpic.com/6p4rb
What do you divine from this weekly chart?
My comment is awaiting moderation
Boom — if it makes you feel any better, my comments get caught in the spam filter all the time.
IN MY OWN DAMN BLOG!
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(Kahn Voice)
JEREMMMMMMMMMYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!
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Boom —
Weekly is what’s important on the 13-34.
For daily it’s either 20-50 (short term) or 50-200.
Looks good, btw!
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