iBankCoin
Joined Oct 27, 2011
93 Blog Posts

Bought Chimerix: Point72 & Insider Buy Large Stakes In $CMRX

Originally, I published the below post at 3:55pm and subsequently tweeted it. Moments after news broke that Point72, formally S.A.C. Steve Cohen’s hedge fund bought a 5.3% stake in Chimerix. The timing could not be any better, or lucky. Thesis re-enforced. 

A couple days ago Chimerix (CMRX) got annihilated after failing to achieve primary-endpoints in a phase 3 trial. Shares cratered from around $35 to $6.4. Originally I took a small position around $7 with a stop at the low. It was almost as a gamble, a lot of questions remained and I didn’t share the trade because I thought it may be too risky.

However, this afternoon it was disclosed that an insider bought 125K shares at $7.09.

I added to my original position and now carry an average price of $7.70.

This trade is still risky, so beware.  Risk what you could handle to lose, keep a stop in and good luck.

chart

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Added To My Gun Collection: Bought More Smith & Wesson $SWHC

 

I added to my SWHC position. The furor of gun purchases has just started. As previously reported, everyone is getting guns for Christmas.

The market has had a chance to digest the SWHC’s most recent surge higher, reacted, stabilized, and is now poised to move higher.

I recommend adding or initiating a position in SWHC if you have not done so already.

SWHC 4 hour time frame

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Don’t Hate The Player, Hate The Game: A Defense Of Martin Shkreli

Public hatred for Martin Shkreli has unimaginable levels. Try to name a more disliked individual right now.

As a natural contrarian, I am jumping off the bandwagon and going long Martin Shrekli.

From Vanity Fair’s Bethany Mclean, “Everything You Know About Martin Shkreli Is Wrong – or Is It?

“I’m like Robin Hood,” he continues. “I’m taking Walmart’s money and doing research for diseases no one cares about.”

Of all the questions swirling around Shkreli, the strangest might be the most basic: How is it that a 32-year-old with no formal training in chemistry ended up running a pharmaceutical company?

In early 2000, when he was about to turn 17, he “weaseled” (his word) his way into an internship at Cramer Berkowitz, the hedge fund then run by CNBC financial pundit Jim Cramer.

He started in the mailroom but displayed a talent, right off the bat, for smoking out small biotech scams.

Shkreli got to know the small group of investors who focus on shorting such stocks—betting that they’ll go down when they prove ineffective or don’t get F.D.A. approval.

After four years, Shkreli left, and bounced around a few other firms before starting his own, Elea Capital Management.

In the summer of 2007, the fund tanked when Shkreli made a $2.6 million bet, through Lehman Brothers, that the market would decline. When he was wrong, he refused to pay Lehman, instead making “veiled threats of filing a bankruptcy,” according to a lawsuit. But it was Lehman which went down in flames, during the 2008 meltdown, and although the court found in its favor, the verdict was vacated.

“I wasn’t successful with my first hedge fund,” Shkreli says today. “I shut it down and lived with my parents. It was a fall from, well, not grace, but a fall.”

Around 2008, Shkreli started a second hedge fund, MSMB, a name made from his initials and those of his business partner and childhood friend, Marek Biestek. They developed a reputation for shorting biotech companies and then using stock chat rooms and other aggressive tactics to savage them, to cause the stock to go down.

Shkreli wrote for one investment site, “Clinical data can be misleading, innocently biased, meaningless, manipulated and sometimes even downright doctored.”

An investor points out, “Shkreli had a really good knowledge of who was faking drug results and who was gaming the system.”

Hedge-fund manager Rex Dwyer, who invests in small companies, including some biotech firms, remembers being introduced to Shkreli at a conference. “He’s quirky,” Dwyer says. “He has a super-high I.Q. It must be 160 or 180. His brain just crunches on things and comes up with answers. I’d ask him a question and he’d stare at me and not say anything. It weirded me out, but I realized he’d just disappeared into his brain.”

In the spring of 2012, MSMB announced that it was investing $4 million in a new biotech company called Retrophin, and Shkreli said that he was going to wind down MSMB to devote all of his time to the new company.

Why, at 29, did he switch from running a hedge fund to running a pharmaceutical company?

“There wasn’t enough money in hedge funds,” he tells me. “You could say that that is the biggest dickhead answer ever. Like most things I say, this could sound really off-putting.”

Money doesn’t seem to be his only motive. He helped in developing a potential treatment for another life-threatening rare disease, called PKAN, which was awarded a patent and is now in clinical trials.

“He has a rare respect and value for the science,” says a doctor who has worked with him. When Robin Anderson, a friend of the Kulsrud family, whose three children suffer from PKAN, contacted Shkreli via Twitter about the drug, he wrote back in 20 minutes, offering to do whatever he could to help. And she says he has.

In late 2012, Shkreli took Retrophin public through what’s known as a “reverse merger,” in which you merge a new business into an existing publicly traded shell, thereby getting stock that you can sell to investors.

Such deals are so notoriously sleazy that the S.E.C. has issued a bulletin warning investors to stay away from them. But at the time speculative biotech stocks were so hot, and Shkreli was apparently so convincing and his ideas seemed so brilliant, that, in early 2013, he was able to raise $9 million.

And with that, Retrophin was off and running. Over the next two years, the company raised an additional $100 million from investors, which included Steve Cohen’s SAC Capital, the family of Fred Hassan (a former C.E.O. of the pharmaceutical giant Schering-Plough, with whom Shkreli had become friendly at a pharmaceutical conference), and Brent Saunders, the current C.E.O. of Allergan, the maker of Botox.

At least some of the investors wanted in based on the promise that Retrophin was going to develop new drugs for rare diseases, but the company started to buy existing drugs—including Thiola, which helps prevent a rare form of kidney stone—and hike the prices.

One person close to events says that both Hassan and Saunders sold their stakes when they began to feel Retrophin was moving away from developing its own drugs.

In the spring of 2014, Shkreli began posting bullish messages online about the company’s prospects, as Retrophin’s stock was soaring, from around $3 a share in early 2013 to almost $20.

On May 29, he tweeted, without explanation, that “this is one of the best days of my life!” The next day he sold almost $4.5 million worth of his own stock in the company. This infuriated investors who believed he was cashing out.

It didn’t come as much of a surprise when Retrophin announced after the close of the market on September 30, 2014, that Shkreli had been replaced by Stephen Aselage, an early Retrophin employee who had quit and then rejoined the company as C.O.O. in 2014.

Not to be deterred, Shkreli set up new offices by the weekend, an investor recalls. “He has a relentless determination not to let anything stop him,” this person says.

Shkreli named his new company Turing, after Alan Turing, the British mathematician who played a key role in cracking the Nazi Enigma-machine codes and who was persecuted for being gay.

Last August, Turing announced the $55 million acquisition of Daraprim from Impax Labs, and Shkreli claimed that the company had raised $90 million from both himself and other investors in equity and debt. It is one of the largest financing rounds in biotech history, and there are many investors who still believe in him. “He has spectacular insights about medicines and diseases,” says one such investor. “He can sift through thousands of potential opportunities and find the one others have missed.”

“[Certain investors] think he knows how to work the system,” says another, more skeptical former investor. You can’t separate Shkreli’s ability to raise money from the environment. We have been in the midst of a historic biotech bubble, and, as another investor says, “when the crescendo is peaking, people are looking for the boy genius, the person who gets it. Martin became that boy.” And there’s this: people who invested in Retrophin made a lot of money.

Despite getting blown out a couple times in the past. Shkreli’s more recent trading performance has been pretty impressive.Martin Shkreli short selling record

One ranking, by Activist Shorts puts the short bet performance of his published bearish calls above Citron, Tilson, Einhorn and Chanos.

In conclusion, Martin Shkreli should have been jailed years ago, but thanks to some luck, brilliance, and deception he beat the odds and kept the party going.

Investors are not suppose to make money in ponzi-schemes. Retrophin isn’t exactly a losing chart. Even those who got burned at his previous hedge fund were probably happy to have RTRX shares when it was trading at $35.

Hiking drug prices on drugs is morally objectionable. However, Shkreli is a small fry in the game. Many biotechs have outrageously priced drugs for rare-diseases, some costing over hundreds of thousands per patient, per year. These costly drugs benefit very few people worldwide (~10k), so to recoup R&D expenses, they justify their costs.

We need to decide if we want to live in a world where rare-diseases are a death sentence or curable, at a steep cost to the tax payer – Have fun with that debate.

GreedyPicks will become Shkreli’s oasis of solace, hidden amongst a vast desert of inter-web despise.

Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.

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How Martin Shkreli’s $80M Short Trade Blew Up His Life

Surprise! Martin Shkreli is not a virgin. He was fucked in 2011, when he shorted a small biotech company, and lost $7M.

After originating from humble beginnings, Martin Shkreli had developed cred (street credibility) by shorting small biotech companies while simultaneously trolling their stock message boards with negativity.

Astonishingly, Shkreli had friends, and he managed to raise $3M from 8 people to launch his hedge fund, MSMB Capital.

That is where our story begins:

February 1st, 2011 was a sunny day and Martin Shkreli was feeling confident. Last night he defeated his nemesis in World of Warcraft, and that morning at Starbucks he made eye contact with a female.

Feeling invulnerable, he declared, “today I will make a name for myself”. He set his sights on Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX), which had just gapped down from $9 to $2.50 overnight.

 

Shkreli to himself:

“OREX is weak, vulnerable and down 70%. Could it mean revert? Nah, fuck that. I am going to bankrupt this bitch”

“I have so much conviction, let me size up in this. I’ll show the market who is boss”

“At most I have $3M of other peoples money in the fund. Leverage is my bitch. I’ll short $80M worth of OREX.”

“What do you mean you can’t locate 32,000,000 shares? Doesn’t matter, I am going to be right anyways. I’ll cover before anyone notices.”

 

Morgan Stanley, upon realizing Shkreli didn’t locate any shares to borrow, forced him to buy back in at a $7M loss.

Losing $7M with 32M shares is very easy. A 20-cent move could knock you out, and in these trades, that can happen in a flash.

Moronic doesn’t begin to describe this trade; in fact, no word can adequately describe its absurdity. Only an egomaniac would fight the tape as hard as Shkreli did on that day.

If these allegations are true, Shkreli represented an astonishing 20% of the volume traded in OREX that day. Presumingly, OREX’s entire float was traded once, maybe twice over.

At one point, Shkreli may have represented the only seller in the market for OREX, absorbing the windfall of short sellers from they day before, who lifted his offers like kids in a candy store.

That was not Shkreli’s first time blowing up. His prior hedge fund, Elea Capital evaporated and his trades resulted in a $2.3M default judgment against him from Lehman Brothers. He successfully hid this fact from succeeding investors of MSMB Capital.

OREX was the beginning of Shkreli’s end. He spent the next 4 years deceiving people, creating enemies, and searching for the perfect facial re-construction surgeon.

Until 2015, when under the guise of success from other illegal schemes, Shkreli emerged into the public spectrum for outrageously hiking prices for rare-drugs, and hoarding the coveted Wu-Tang Clan album “Once Upon A Time in Shaloin.”

Do you think the Wu-Tang Clan have friends in prison?

Follow me on Twitter

 

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“High-Yield Markets Are Not Illiquid” Said Third Avenue Manager

The market was rattled Friday by Third Avenue’s announcement they are liquidating their $788M Focused Credit Fund (FCF). FCF was focused on buying dog poop, the market of which is small and bids infrequent.

Redemptions have been halted and investors are now stuck on what should be a turbulent rollercoaster ride, as they wait for an “orderly” liquidation process.

Just a few years ago, FCF boasted about the advantages of illiquid investments. In a 2012 note titled “Myths in the High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Market,” Lead manager Thomas Lapointe explained how the shallowness of junk-bond markets could actually provide an edge for the relatively small fund:

“Myth #6: The High-Yield and Loan Markets Are Illiquid: Low volumes can be really bad news for larger players in the market. However, as price-conscious buyers, we can use lower volumes to our advantage, by demanding better prices from sellers that need a bid.”

Unfortunately, Thomas has found himself on the receiving side of his devious plan. His largest individual position is a 5% stake in troubled Clear Channel Communications (now IHeartMedia), which was recently trading at roughly 30 cents on the dollar.

FCF was down 27 percent this year and has rightfully hemorrhaged redemptions, shrinking 75% since July when it had $3.5B in assets.

50% of investments were in non-rated securities, and 45% in CCC or below rated assets. FCF was a distress-debt hedge fund masquerading as a mutual fund. 

This event is unprecedented and should expedite new liquidity regulations for public funds. Businesses that revolve around managing “3X leveraged bullshit”, or distressed/illiquid holdings will feel the burn.

Developing ideas… stay tuned.

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Everyone Gets A Gun For Christmas

Last week’s tragedy in San Bernardino was an act of terrorism that somehow got spun into a gun control issue (as if jihadis have never heard of bombs before).

Nonetheless, anytime the issue of gun control makes national headlines, demand for guns actually goes up. This phenomenon first occurred during Obama’s first presidential victory, and also during his re-election.

Yesterday I posted on twitter that I had purchased SWHC around $20 for a trade and I made good on the promise and sold 80% of the position ahead of earnings.

Even without the recent furor, gun sales in the recent quarter were quite healthy.

Quarterly net sales were $143.2 million, an increase of 32.1% over the second quarter last year.  Firearms division net sales of $124.9 million increased by 15.2% over the comparable quarter last year.

10Q

I expect to repurchase shares over the next few days because according to my facebook feed, people aren’t done talking about gun control.

Follow my trades on twitter @GOODGREED

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SOS: Kinder Morgan Cuts Dividend

For the first time ever, KMI has cut their dividend by 75%. This needed to happen if the stock ever wanted to find a bottom. Unfortunately this probably will not end the selling pressure in shares, KMI could easily be a single digit stock in 2016.

HOUSTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) (NYSE (NYX): KMI) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a plan pursuant to which it expects to pay quarterly dividends of $.125 per share to its common stockholders ($.50 annually), down from its current quarterly level of $.51, beginning with the fourth quarter 2015 dividend payable in February 2016. This dividend enables the company to use a significant portion of its large cash flow to fund the equity portion of its expansion capital requirements, eliminate any need to access the equity market for the foreseeable future and maintain a solid investment grade credit rating. KMI anticipates enough retained internally generated cash flow to fund all of the required equity contribution projected for 2016 and a significant portion of its debt requirements. The company has reviewed its expected investments in 2017 and 2018 and believes that its stable and growing internally generated cash flow will allow it to continue to fund the equity portion of its capital budget without the need to access the equity market. It anticipates meeting all of the rating agencies requirements to remain investment grade, and expects a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 5.5 for 2016 and anticipates reducing that ratio in subsequent years.

We evaluated numerous options, including significant asset sales, but ultimately concluded that these other options were uneconomic to our investors in the long run. This decision was not made lightly, but we believe it is in the best interests of the company, its shareholders and employees, saidRich Kinder, executive chairman of the KMI board. It will allow us to continue to maintain and grow our outstanding set of midstream energy assets without being required to issue equity at valuations prevalent in todays market while maintaining a solid investment grade rating on our debt obligations. We are directly addressing concerns about our investment grade rating and concerns about the need to issue additional equity. We believe todays action is beneficial to our shareholders.

Our strategy always has been, and will continue to be, to focus on fee-based midstream energy assets that are core to North American energy markets, said Steve Kean, president and CEO. Our execution of that strategy has enabled us to grow distributable cash flow (DCF) per share and we believe we will continue to do so.

The company has completed its budget process for 2016 and expects DCF available to its equity holders of slightly over $5 billion, an increase of approximately 8 percent over 2015. We grew our DCF per share in 2015 and we expect to grow again in 2016, despite a very difficult environment in the energy sector. We believe we have the best set of assets in the midstream energy business and the cash generated by those assets is fee based and growing. Todays action is not a reflection of our underlying business our business is strong and growing. Todays decision is about finding the most economic way to fund our set of attractive return expansion projects, said Kean.

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Netflix: Taking Over The World

Takeaways From Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s Chief Content Officer. From UBS’s Global Media Conference.

NFLX has a $5B networking budget, the largest programming budget in the world. With that they are producing critically acclaimed and award winning content.

NFLX invented binge viewing and people are addicted. Waiting a week between new episodes feels archaic.

Netflix is an international growth story. Worldwide, Narcos was a huge hit and it ramped up brand awareness. Europe, South America, Japan, and Australia have huge market potential.

Netflix has a trove of valuable data on consumer tastes. Across all demographics and on a scale their competitors dream of, NFLX understands exactly what viewers want to watch. When investing in content, Netflix has significant edge.

The only reason consumers are still paying a cable bill is for sports. Live broadcasting is what makes sports cool. Live is not in NFLX’s core strategy. In order to get into Sports, they would prefer to create a league like ESPN did with X-Games.

Source

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At What Price Should You Buy $CMG?

Over 20 students at Boston College got sick after eating Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) over the weekend (source). So far Massachusetts, Maryland, Pennsylvania, California, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Oregon, and Washington have reported cases.

CMG has plunged back to session lows in the after-hour session.

Customers are avoiding CMG like the plague.

“When we announced the closure of 43 restaurants on November 3,  company-wide comparable restaurant sales dropped for the ensuing few days to approximately -20%.  The severity of the national impact was temporary, and when we announced the re-opening of restaurants in Oregon and Washington on November 10, 2015, comparable restaurant sales over the next several days quickly improved to approximately -9%.   On November 20, 2015 the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced four additional cases linked to the same E. coli incident; following this announcement and related negative publicity, daily comparablerestaurant sales trended down to approximately -22%.  Over the past five days, comparable sales have gradually improved to an average of approximately -16%.  For the full month of November, comparable restaurant sales were -16%.” – 8-K

CMG has tried to softening the blow of this news by announcing a $300M share buyback program.

Lets be honest, Chipotle is delicious. In 6 months you won’t even recall this incident while you’re savagely stuffing burritos in your face. The company has cult-like following and they satisfy demand for healthy fast-casual food which has limited alternatives.

What have you been eating on your lunch breaks?

Salads?

Ultimately I think CMG will make a for a great investment, but at what price?

3x sales is about $416. Though 3x is relatively high compared to the rest of the industry, I’d certainly be willing to put some money to work at that valuation. I find it hard to imagine the stock getting down there, but of course anything can happen.

At what price will you be buying CMG?

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$NVDA: Exposed for Success

What are some of the hot industries these day?

Automotive Infotainment, drones, virtual reality, deep learning, cloud computing, autonomous driving, professional gaming… NVDA has exposure to all of these emerging industries.

Shares are currently racing towards their 2008 all time highs of around $40. For the past few months shares have hardly seen a down day. Though it is very tempting to buy this company, I can’t recommend chasing it after a continuous 3 month rise.

Colette Kress, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:

“Automotive revenue rose 51% year-on-year to a record $79 million. At last month’s International Auto Show in Frankfurt, Mercedes Benz, Audi, Porsche, Bentley, and Honda all showcased a range of production vehicles and concept cars with NVIDIA-powered digital cockpits, and our partner, Tesla Motors just introduced its falcon-winged Model X. Like the Model S, the Model X is equipped with both a multi-touch infotainment system and a digital instrument cluster powered by NVIDIA.”

“Gaming revenue rose 44% year-on-year to $761 million. Growth is being fueled by a number of factors, among them, the significant increase in graphics production value, the rise of eSports, the anticipation of blockbuster games for the holiday season, and the emergence of new technologies like VR for richer, more immersive game play.”

Jen-Hsun Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer, NVIDIA:

“Our record revenue highlights NVIDIA’s position at the center of forces that are reshaping our industry,” saidJen-Hsun Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer, NVIDIA. “Virtual reality, deep learning, cloud computing and autonomous driving are developing with incredible speed, and we are playing an important role in all of them.” 

Any weakness in NVDA would be greatly appreciated.

 

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