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Pimping the Short Side and Intermarket Trades

qOj9dDo

This is the type of market where you can really pick up alpha, if you are willing to look at plays like natty, metals/miners, and the short side. The bull, of course, is far from dead overall–Bears will need to inflict considerable more damage in the coming weeks and perhaps even months to sustain something more than even a garden-variety pullback off recent all-time highs.

Still, the momentum has left the building to the upside and plenty of traders who started becoming market players in 2013 have never experienced so much as a 10% correction. As a result, I am not in a rush to bottom-fish longs yet.

Consumer plays which I have highlighted for you on this blog and inside 12631 as short setups continue to push lower, namely COST PNRA and the like. Also keep an eye on CAKE UA to follow suit lower below current bear flags.

It remains to be seen if these themes will continue throughout 2014. For now, though, the strategy is working quite well.

As always, the fundamental tools we preach inside 12631 of religious stop-loss discipline and position sizing will assuredly enable you to navigate all types of markets without the disastrous account blow-ups which inevitably result during broad market corrections.

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In a Taxi, Headed Towards McCarran International Airport

Cosmo-Las-Vegas

I locked in the rest of my WYNN short trade for a 5%-plus win just now. Keep in mind, with my style of trading my drawdowns are minimal as I religiously cut small losses. So, decent wins like WYNN on top of the bigger wins in natural gas and the gold miners this week has me off to a good start this year.

So with a quick win on the short side, and WYNN earnings next week, I elected cash out the rest of my chips at the cage and take a taxi down the strip to McCarran.

Elsewhere, ARIA is defying the broad market sell-off via a short squeeze higher, as is TWTR apparently.

Back with some more ideas in a bit.

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Morning JO

gutfeld

Check out this article about a looming coffee DEFICIT. As you know, I remain long the JO ETN inside 12631. So, yes, I am talking my current book of long the coffee commodity. Still, it is an interesting read.

Elsewhere, strength in the Japanese Yen may very well be the real story here of the recent weakness in equities. There is typically an inverse relationship between the two.

In the midst of the great 2013 bull run in stocks, the Yen got worked over hard, undershooting the measured move from the major, confirmed head and shoulders top dating back to 2011.

As you can see, a reflex/bear market/snapback rally to at least $100 would be entirely reasonable even within the context of an ongoing Yen bear. Keep an eye on this one and how it relates to stocks.

Drop me your top Friday morning watchlist tickers.

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FXY

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FRED is Too Sexy for This Market

Here are the two charts of the ideas mentioned earlier tonight–Long FRED on strength and short UA on weakness.

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FRED

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UA

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Late Night Strategy for Friday

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The chart of the S&P 500 futures which I present below, dating back to mid/late-December, should emphasize why I have mainly been focusing on the more energetic opportunities in other asset classes like natural gas and precious metals miners of late–Note the sloppy, sideways action with no net progress.

This evening, futures are still soft as the S&P probes multi-week lows. Whether or not this action marks the beginning of a true correction or even major top is irrelevant to me in the short-term, as I am focused on the most viable opportunities in front of me at any given moment.

Headed into Friday, keep an eye on UA as a short on weakness, while little FRED is a long idea.

I am still stalking re-entries/adds in natural gas, precious metals & miners if the constructive action continues.

Drop me your top tickers overnight.

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2014-01-24_0011

 

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Worshipped Coffee Gods Punishing Their Pagans

coffeegod

Starbucks has earnings after the bell and has already corrected sharply. So, as you can see on the second daily chart below I would take a hands-off approach until we see the reaction tomorrow.

That said, the other coffee stock I have been arguing as a potential short has been Dunkin, seen on the first chart below. They report in the first week of February. I still think the stock gets dicey under $46, well-defined support.
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DNKN

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SBUX

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