Yesterday’s big trades were in TRLG for me. It wasn’t like the day before where I absolutely killed it, but nonetheless, I managed to hit TRLG twice and profit twice. The diagram of trades taken is pictured below. The green squares are short entry points and the orange squares are scaled out exit points. I “missed” two trades, but only because the volume wasn’t there and also because the 2nd “miss” was right after the FOMC decision. Execution was near perfect on this, so study it.
Moving onto the general market, I am bearish as the title of the post suggests. We formed a gravestone doji on the SPX, shooting star on the DJIA, and a dark cloud cover on the RUT. All three are bearish signals. In addition, note how the indices are “churning” at their respective MA’s. If you watch my shows on Stocktwits TV, you would know that I consider this move mostly bearish. The last chart is the IWM, the Russell 2000 iShares ETF. Note the massive sell off volume. The RUT did and will continue to lead the way.
good work
Time to put on some short swings??
I imagine fly has some type of image blocker that prevents him from looking at the cursed charts.
Nice trading on TRLG! Re. missed trades–some days the volume is not there in /ES when I consider the short side and I find myself very frustrated to see it collapse without me. Other days without volume it just trades flat/choppy, so I am glad to not have entered…. still figuring this out.
Thanks for the seven long and short setups…see them regularly on /ES 1 minute charts are good reliable trades
Thanks for all you do CA
Couldn’t agree more on the bearish take CA.
In /ES we got the bounce I expected and excluding a small over-reaction at about 3:45 (looks currency related) we held the previous session lows overnight. This is expected after a hard selloff like that into the close – the sellers were exhausted and we float up a bit (before the unemployment number hit).
The problem is that we keep getting rejected and pushed back below the March rising wedge.
1052 was a very important level yesterday and it will remain hot today. The 8:30 numbers were good so we go to 1052 and fade for a second try – this shit is so predictable some times! See if that level holds for direction into the open. Forex and oil are already fading this move…
Other important levels to watch today would be:
1042 – if it hits, expect a push back to 1044 for a scalp and then watch for direction – if it breaks, 1036 would be reasonable
1058 – if it hits expect to be rejected to about 1054.5 and watch for direction – if it breaks with volume – ride it to 1061+ moving stops up
There are other reaction levels in between – 1045-ish and 1049 area are the other 2 worth noting. ~1049.50 is the March wedge for today.
Chart patterns take precedent over these levels but you will often see them develop into or along with the S/R – these are always your best entries.
I am out of /CL for today – the correlation was off yesterday and it headfaked me into staying long into some bearish moves. I don’t want to have to work that hard today.
/ES
still sloppy & early to call but on a 1 hour chart I’m watching for a sym tri to develop into the March wedge bottom trend line.
from Thursday at 4pm at the top and 6am yesterday on the bottom.
pure excitement
light selling
looking 1049
shorting into 58 for rejection
cover some 56.5
+1.5
covered more 56.25
+1.75
2 left out of 6
lots of buy stops hit above 58 – that wasn’t love that was fear
need to break back into the channel
1058 we got the rejection to 1054.75 – within .25 of my call from above – now WATCH FOR IT
watching.
taking a while here
locals getting a squeeze?
carefully adding short 58 level
careful – it will run and I may have direction wrong
out 59
-1 last 2
will prob re-short 61-64 area when it settles
on the wrong side of the tape but it’s too late to be long
Yes 1064-63 previous high three day sandwich, top end small bear flag daily
the levels are working perfectly
paper buying up here
If you have TOS
enter symbol -/ES on a 1 hour chart
gives you upside down chart for /ES – we are at very important levels – H/S neckline (three headed monster)
agreed on the level. Like the upside down view
here comes – reaction long on the line/ sideways / or down tbd soon
short 1060.75
out +1, waiting
holding a small scalp short
cover hlf 59
+2.5
cover all 59.5
+2
fadable reaction long – probably some chop now
shorting a little oil here – any dip in the SPX is sure to get sold in oil – may build the position later
hmmm,
worked
cover half 80.04
+22 ticks
out the rest 79.80
+46
and I said I was not trading oil today – POOF!
using the correlation against it
oh man – right at the bottom – it’s a support area kids
when I shorted it it had a negative corr on a bullish SPX tape – it went hard positive when the bears took over.
awesome signal that almost always works!
hey frog I like you – you’re careful
Too careful missed that last short down move to 1056.
I’d rather miss than lose – it’s a great quality to have with futures
support here /ES
yes
trying short to 1052 if we give it up
above 58 again long to 60+ would be a possible although too much risk for a small payoff
Bearish engulfing 60 min chart 1062 resistance
Excellent post Retox
Thanks retox. /DX, is this still something to watch…
I’m more on Euros for now but yes /DX for longer term
Short $WFMI 28.80
Bought $FSYS 39.44
Covered half $WFMI 28.42
Sold half $FSYS 39.92
Sold 1/4 $FSYS 40.46
Covered 1/4 $WFMI 28.52
Covered final 1/4 $WFMI 28.70
Sold final 1/4 $FSYS 41.50/51 EPIC WIN.
Bought $FSYS (again) 42.10
Sold $FSYS 42.13
Bought $SANM 7.88/89
Sold half $SANM 8.08
Sold 1/4 $SANM 8.15
Bought $HGSI 27.24
Sold final 1/4 $SANM 8.29
Sold $HGSI 27.24/25
Bought $FSYS 42.27/28 (how many times did I hit this stock, again?)
you are beating it like a wife!
short WFMI at 28.10 short ABK at 1.26
I meant to say: Retox’s wife must be out today.
that’s from Chris Rock I think??
she knows I love ‘er
and then there’s my other favorite related one-liner from Chapelle
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/25855/
last line of the song
Added more $FSYS 42.69
Sold all $FSYS 42.58/59
Short $AIG 37.62
Short $WFMI 28.07/06
long SANM – out if it touches 8
Covered half $AIG 37.33
Possibly a good area to try swing shorts?? ES went a couple ticks shy of 50% retrace from high of a couple weeks ago and is now pulling back.
Covered 2nd half 4AIG 27.61/62
Have to post down here missing purdy’s jokes.
Short STEC 14.34
Covered half $WFMI 27.66
covered ABK 1.29
KILLING IT TODAY.
covered half WFMI at 27.55
and the rest at 27.85
Covered 1/4 $WFMI 27.558
Covered final 1/4 $WFMI 27.72
Top of the 5 minute camel channel – I’m feeling like nobody really WANTS to own this here. Just following the tape.
short.
did u notice the headfake at 1058 ….brought it down to 1057 25 and then took it to 1059 and maybe 1060?
gold man fuckers?
nope – one big floor trader bidding it up – prob needs to sell.
oil sym tri 1 min
broke – in
cover half 79.68
+16 ticks
covered the rest 79.78
+6
How do they know if it’s GS or MS or Merill or Solomon?
looking to re-short
here w/a stop above the TL
in a new sym tri short bias with stops above and targets well below
Does Wayne Brady have to choke a bitch?
pit trader that did that spike is out and off the floor now
cover 79.47
+49 ticks (added to avg up twice)
8 cars
cover 1058.75
+.25
mid-day break. be back later. don’t do anything stupid
like buy this close?
Covered STEC 14.27 Long LAMR 29.37
MGM
Long CVS 29.09
sold CVS at 29.16 LAMR at 29.17
fun tape – workin it like a rib
well CA – we both went into a 90% upside day with a short bias and we both made cash.
there’s a message in there somewhere.
lol. I don’t trade the general mkt anyway. Always find what works and you’ll be fine.
back
next trade for me would be an /ES short on another spike (depending on the action) OR a clean break on the uptrend line for the day (1 min chart)
CA, I guess it’s still not time for swing trades yet?
YOU ARE ANNOYING AS HELL.
ASK ME ONE MORE TIME, I WILL BAN YOU.
I SWING WHENEVER I WANT TO SWING.
Relax CA, he has no name.
watching for DJX 10000 – most important chart to have up now over forex
should see some sell programs there
just eating a tuna sandwich with my cat – chillin
short a bunch of /YM 9958
looking for 25 points down
don’t forget your 10k hats!
PROGRAMS!
/ES sloppy rising wedge into the close – spectacular
going home short
will cover /YM 9933
Still short RIMM here. that bitch has a nice gap to fill down to 49.46
starting me a lil ole RWM pos here… 48.27
Bought $FSYS 44.12/13
Sold 1/2 $FSYS 44.56/57
Sold 1/4 $FSYS 44.69/70
No coin for me today. Lost 3 pts on /ES short side…we’ll see tomorrow….
Sold final 1/4 $FSYS 44.71
So the next leg is a push above 10k to hit buy stops, run it up, suck ’em in, and dump it.
That would be my move if I controlled the Evil Empire.
Retox, do futures traders generally set stops to execute after hours? . or just 9:30 – 4 est?
Thanks
Did you notice the last headfake at around 1060…looked like it was appearing to rollover at the trend line…came down a bit and then ran upto 1064…these bastards are getting far too fucking clever at headfaking.
Motherf**k*rs
C**nts
Nice battle going on – head fake or no, gotta respect their muscle.
We hit the secondary trendline from 12:06 & 2:07 and moved off.
My last oil short from above (in a sym tri) kept re-forming the triangle sharper on what appeared to be small breaks. Just have to keep anticipating where the majority have their trendlines.
Damned if you do damned if you don’t.
I usually try to set very reasonable profit targets – you will usually see me go 20-40 ticks on oil or 2-5 pts. on /ES.
This /YM trade is 25 points off of 10k dow is a pimple on an elephant x10 contracts. I have no stop with the hope/courage/conviction that we swing a little BOTH ways in the overnight.
When I first started trading futures, I had a short on /ES – looking for 6 points. I had a stop 10 points up.
Woke up, looked at it trading well below my target thinking all was well. Damn thing pushed up, hit my stop – and the volume at my stop was 2 contracts – that would be me and me. Sucked. I backed off and re-figured my strategies.
I now use multiple alerts at key levels (multiple because I’m a heavy sleeper) with the volume at the top and my laptop next to the bed. I then have a chance to manage it rather than get sucked out.
Good story crossing – I would say this has about as much to do with the run up in prices as anything and it does a really good job of explaining why oil moves with the broad markets (not in so many words but read between the lines).
SINGAPORE, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Asia’s oil derivatives market
saw its best month for 2009 in October in terms of volumes and
profits, signalling confidence has returned after more than a
year in the dumps, brokers and traders said on Thursday.
The revival and return of risk appetite are driven by
improving financial market sentiment, which saw Goldman Sachs on
track to pay hefty bonuses, and helped by sustainable volatility
in crude benchmarks that rose to year-highs above $80 a barrel.
Oil’s rally so far has not been a repeat of last year’s
extreme volatility which made it difficult to trade and caused
heavy losses, brokers said.
“It was a great month. And I’m optimistic that the
improvement can be sustained going forward,” a senior
Singapore-based broker said.
“Confidence has returned to the market — banks are more
willing to finance trades and counterparties are more willing to
trade with each other.”
tomorrow:
8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change -173K expected
8:30am USD Unemployment Rate 9.9% expected
8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% expected
9:45am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m -0.9% expected
11:30am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m
thx retox
CA,
I usually try to stay far away from knocking others but WTF is this slop:
http://www.winnersedgetrading.com/trade-of-the-day/eur-usd-4hr-triangle
Could you be more specific please? Why is it slop?
Thanks
Final thought.
The SPX vs DJX correlation stands at .92 on a 1 day chart for today. (1.0 is perfect correlation).
We’ve only had 2 larger divergences since March that were .76 and .86 – each one corrected with a selloff of the SPX. (44 points and 73 points).
We are also at the lowest point since March on a week chart.
This argues heavily against anyone who says we are going to trend sideways – these fundamentals typically imply future volatility in the pair until they correct and, as of today, we have not yet begun this correction.
My gut told me to get back into /ES volatility – and this confirms it.
ES was weaker than YM today …was that also the case with those prior divergences?
I’d have to dig to get that. Would make sense – easier for 30 to run up than it is for 500 to run up. There has to be a way to play a re-correlation. Probably can be done with some complicated options strategy that I don’t understand. VIX options maybe?
My real take is that we will get the volatility I crave.
I don’t know enough to contribute, I’m a nobody, completely out of my league here. But, thank you to all for taking the time to post and discuss. Thank you.
we’re all dust eventually
/CL short @ 80
79.78 target
(had the order in – just got a fill)
A mkt review. Interesting comment re. UUP
http://seekingalpha.com/article/171723-friday-outlook-wall-street-roulette
AIG net profit was $455 million, or 68 cents a share, compared with a loss of $24.47 billion, or $181.02 a share, in the year-earlier quarter.
Now that’s funny. let’s see, at this rate it will take… oh, fuck it.
day traders stock today.
Heading into the report remember that we sold good earnings news, we sold a good Fed decision, and we could easily sell a good employment print.
We are basically eating our babies.
Bad number – I open a /CL short and ride it.
Good number – I open an /ES long with a /CL short (with discretion of course) and manage it.
forget discretion – that was pure Valor
covered half /CL
digest or puke here
going for puke
lol, I find puke very hard to trade
just don’t try to hold its hair back
early morning disgust
WAKE UP – TRADERS TAPE TODAY!!!! BIG $$$$$
Short stock may be a better bet than short oil on this disappointing report – – the rationale being that the weak number means that our pols will continue longer and stronger with their dollar-destructive policies.
holy frijoles! 77.30 print – the tanker is sinking!!!!!!!
It was a negative correlation play – I did it short all day yesterday and it worked great.
Oil longs are weak – no substantial recovery today period, end of sentance.
Sentance = The improper spelling of sentence by a high strung person
I am short 1 /ES anyway – holding it all day
retox how do you enter on a high velocity situation like this morning…doubt it could be for me–have a sensitive stomach
the nasty way – I set an order just below recent trades – in this case it was 79.17
no stops
#1 profit target for part of the trade is 10-20 ticks below to lock SOME gains
#2 profit target – key support areas (prev day high/low etc)
#3 profit target – set after the push
#4 profit target – set after it settles
I was ONLY willing to take this short so I had no worries about the pre-spike up
You really have to have a bias to go in like this. On Tuesday afternoon (never on Wednesday reports) oil inventory reports I will sometimes use orders on both sides for 10-20 tick scalps (100% out on the spike).
I just wish I had more to unload – trying to scalp/add more on support reactions but we really aren’t finding regular support levels – just pauses to consolidate – really bearish
hunting for 70.06 to cover more – strong support but I think we eventually break it today
1061 ceiling on /ES must hold
You think the big boys will absorb the selling retox? or let it go down and then spike it up in the last hour?
never can tell.
did it – extra nuts for the winter
still short – wrong place to open a short – perfect place to hold part of one
got my target on /YM last night – 9933 – it hit 9932 and reversed back up – charmed
+25 points – 10 contracts
got my target on /CL last night 79.78
+22 ticks – 2 contracts
New Post
Thanks Chart Addict for your “Charts Gone Wild” on Stock Twits TV and the ed. sections on this site. Toni Turner’s “Beginner’s Guide to Short-Term Trading 2nd Ed,” is helping me to understand your teaching, but you’ve been amazing by giving visual information in action, which you just can’t get in a book. Regards, white1h lurking here and on Stock Twits.