All indices have formed stick sandwiches or modifications of them. I am short/intermediate-term bearish and will reflect this sentiment by incorporating my primary swing strategies with the current day trading. Day trading is great and all, but I’m looking to capture larger chunks of the moves. Also, it’ll ease up my time to focus on other things. A swing trade can be a simple overnight 2-day hold or a multi-week hold and everything in between.
Charts shown are 9-mo and 5-mo.
The SPX is short-term bearish and intermediate-term neutral as it is with most of the other indices. I’m looking for a 1-day neutral/reactionary move for entry. The RUT continues to lead the way down as I have predicted. It is testing the 100-day MA. The DJIA is testing the lower ascending range as well as the 50-day MA. Finally, the COMP is in a neutral range and threatening the lower boundary. Notice how all the indices are in different stages of the correction?
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The transport index is also testing the 100-day MA and is in a neutral range.
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Not only are all the indices in different stages, so are the individual sectors.
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Thanks again, CA, Looking forward to your Stocktwits TV show on Tuesday. Those shows are very educational. Thank you for all your work.
Word. thx. Everything is playing out as suspected. First the illiquidity/low vol, and the RUT leading the way.
MR.CA
looking at your RUT chart what if the Rut goes below the 548 level ? is 500 on the table in a hurried up fashion ?
double top neckline break confirmation assuming a lower high will be made and higher vol comes during the selloffs.
Nice work. I’m also looking forward to your stocktwits tv show.
Thank you for watching.
Thanks CA. The stick sandwich–new term for me. Besides reversal of middle candle direction, any other implications?? Seems to be a rare pattern.
Not rare. Very common during downtrends and it is one of my high probability short setups. It’s a really good one.
Great stuff
The tape turned nasty on the 21st and your charts only back it up.
Lightening up further into the next rally hopefully Monday.I suspect we will be in corrective mode for a probably most of November.
Yep.
Thanks, CA.
Are you looking to play the small cap index? You mentioned that the prices are too low for small caps last week.
NO. I said the prices are too low to be shorted. Can’t really and should not be shorting dollar stocks, obviously. Focus higher $.
Hi CA,
Nice to see you back at charting again. Here are a few picks:
Short: WYNN, RIMM, LVS,
LONG: NFLX
I’m will not be doing anything longer than a day trade for “bullish long” setups. I’m pretty bearish right now.
I AM BACK.
closing my /CL long 77.56 + 62 ticks
closing my Euro long 1.4759 + 55 pips
continued upside is highly probable here but I want a good nights sleep with no surprises in the morning – better to lock gains than to give it all back
corrected – Euro gain was only 60 pips – typo
uh, /CL + 60 ticks – damn, I need sleep bad!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This week I’m looking for longs ONLY after panic selling with heavy volume – I will not take any longs after slow grinds – you MUST look for exhaustion before longs get probability.
In the morning I will find and note all support areas to watch in /CL /ES /GC /DX before I trade anything. You can’t expect to figure this shit out as you go.
I will take bounce attempts with tight trailing stops and small scale-out profit targets locking small gains before I risk for a larger pop – basically averaging down as I let it ride up.
I expect many failures on these little rips – these are your short entries.
The /DX must be watched at all times to be sure the downtrend stays intact. Failure to hold at the upper trendline (1 day chart) is a monster short signal for /ES, /CL, & /GC
retox, if I recall correctly, you’re watching an upper trendline on DX from the May high to recent highs – which forms the top line of a falling wedge. However, drawing from the June high (instead of starting back in May, you get a nice 3-hit trendline which, along with your lower trendline drawn from August lows through Oct lows gives a nice downward sloping channel. Resistance at the top of that channel (which is a bit higher than the falling wedge’s upper trendline) is likely to be widely watched.
This is such a crowded trade – there is no doubt these lines are being watched. I have those lines so close together (for now). For the next few days the numbers I would watch on any break would be 76.85 & 77.00 – a clean fast move to and through 77 would guarantee a run to 77.265. From there…
Let’s just hope it doesn’t resolve like the /NG channel we blasted out of last month.
we missed the easy money on APOL but, if the market goes, keep an eye on it
Also watching 10am tomorrow as a probable reversal or confirmation of any early market trend – not the most important reports but I think we may get exaggerated reactions with the current market state.
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m
10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
I want my Monday bounce, like I said on Friday.
you expecting much past 1043 SPX?
CA,
Thanks again for those Charts you posted EARLY Monday morning (Nov 2nd) on Twitter/Chart.ly. Again, your explanations are a tremendous education for us part-time Traders with a full-time job and family. Your Charts and explanations accelerate my learning. I love the various kinds of Charts that you provide that are really not that promising for a trade now or immediately BUT the chart and your explanation says to ‘wait’ or ‘expect a reversal at the 200 dma’ at a certain time, etc. Point: A Well rounded education. I love to study your Charts. I see more clearly now with every explanation you give.
Thanks again CA for all your time and help.
Marine Exploration, Inc. (OTCBB: MEXP) confirms that a video circulating on the
Internet was recently posted to the Company`s message board on Yahoo Finance by
third party sources. The video shows the R/V Hispaniola and Burt Webber’s team
over an early 18th Century Spanish galleon shipwreck. The Company is salvaging
the wreck under newly expanded contract terms with the Dominican Republic.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_M/threadview?m=tm&bn=74029&tid=110&mid=110&tof=1&frt=2
Marine Exploration CEO Mark Goldberg states: “We are aware of the Yahoo posting
and Internet video and can confirm that our team, led by Burt Webber, is
currently performing salvage of an early 18th Century Spanish galleon shipwreck.
The salvage is ongoing at this time, and regardless of the wording in the Yahoo
piece, we have neither confirmed nor denied the dollar value of the ornate gold
jewelry, coins, silver, and other items recovered or yet to be recovered. With
safety a primary concern, we will continue our operations and issue near term
updates to the public and our investors.”
Watch NANO, especially if it clears 9.
/CL buy 76.96
/CL sell half 77.20
+24 ticks
Did the same although i expect my time period is considerably shorter than yours, bought 76.99, sold 77.17 +18
taking small pieces of moves, long bias
Scratch that, meant short
GS trying to bid the mkt up and keep the floor at 1040
I want the top of the channel at least .34
JP Morgan has buys in at 1037 /ES
sold 2nd half 77
gonna keep trying to catch long scalps off of /CL 77 for a better move
now
out half 77.24
+24
holding 2nd .34
out
+34
perfect exit
out for reports
long bias
to 78
half out 77.85
2nd half going above 78
stops will blow us past
out all 78.07
+47 ticks
morning buyers are now sellers – watch out
cautious fading tops – small scalps
risk to the downside
Bought $SGY 16.00
Sold half $SGY 16.32
Sold other half $SGY 16.32
Bought /CL 77.74; Sold 78.12 +38
/ES just touched 50 day MA, will reenter on a strong break of this level
Finally, movement!
I live for days like this
Absolutely.
/6E: 1.4844 level has been important since Aug 08, 20 day MA at 1.4849 — will be very difficult to clear
/ES: 50 day at 1049.25
if one of these is broken /CL should shoot up, if both – im making an appointment with the porsche dealer
/ES flagging, looks like its going to 1049.25
/6E is also making an attempt at that level i mentioned, volume isnt reassuring though, i’ll wait for another attempt on more strength
no size here – /ES longs unloading
Bought $YRCW 2.01
Sold half $YRCW 2.16
Sold 1/4 $YRCW 2.18
Sold last 1/4 $YRCW 2.07
be back in a hourish
CA is back!
short scalps working
77.67 target for /CL shorts on a 78 break
fucking HOT – yes yes yes – give me your kids college money – my kid wants to go to school
/CL 77.69 cover half ov the last scalp
+ 62 ticks
/ES shorts leaning on it
bravo! best of luck for the rest of the day, duty (class) calls
signing off at +78 😀
77.38 next cover
you are crazy to trade with me and broke if you trade against me
lean harder – almost there!!!!
worked that run to average up – still short
institutions leaning
retox, great trading, Im interested in opening a futures account, do you have any broker recommendations?
I use TOS – happy enough with them.
open an account and paper trade (no funding required) to see if you like it.
thanks retox! I downloaded their desktop app awhile back but haven’t yet played around with it..
next breakdown SPX takes us to 77 handle /CL
watch for a push back up through 78 to panic cover and re-short higher
look for breaks to 77.67 again – magic
target 77.37
NICE! – watch Euro 1.4800 – support
/CL cover half 77.94
+ 51 ticks
next leg gives me .67 or I’m out on a break on the upper SPX trend line
SPX new low print – heavy institutional action
/CL 77.67 target – covered 2nd half
+78 ticks + a few random scalps
I win. lunch time. tuna on toast.
/DX possible failed breakdown hourly chart sym tri. top line 76.51. Agreed on /ES took scalps on short side after topping at 1049.5
And more while im typing damn.
short RIMM
cover 54.83
back
Short $AIG $35.03
Coverd half $AIG 34.89
Covered 1/4 $AIG $34.61
Covered last 1/4 $AIG 34.54
Short $AIG 34.32
Covered half $AIG $33.97
Covered $AIG 1/4 $33.81
Covered remaining 1/4 $AIG $33.69
Short $BAC 14.47
Short $AIG $33.36
WHAT A FUCKING GREAT DAY!!!!!!
nice shorts CA.
Covered half $BAC 14.30
Covered other half $BAC 14.22
Covered all $AIG 33.61 (1st loss of the day)
CA is back, let the fun begin…
BTW, enjoy your charts gone wild show alot…
greatly appreciated
It looks as if tarped banks’ traders conspired to throw a tt with OPM as the special master on pay spoke.
JP, Goldman, Shi, & Swiss leading us down.
/ES on downtrend line – probable short action coming – scalps
did not get out fast enough – flat at 77.6 – might shake me out
want 77.10
got it – covered 77.10
+ 50 ticks
22 minutes 2 thousand more dollars
Goldman got long at the open – sold at the top and got short – they are still short – NEVER trade against them.
You talking about ES, CL or both?
/ES – I’m playing /ES moves with /CL for the extra volatility
You were seeing the Goldman moves on ES?
on the /SP – the big contract – trying a feed from the pit – I’ll see if it’s worth a shit and I’ll let you know.
Keep it up Retox
/DX strengthening
I’m going to Europe in 2 weeks.
Half of me wants the market to die a hard fast death so I can get more for my money and the other half of me wants to to see this rotten tape catch a bid – our economy is really in the trash long-term.
Yes, the tape is nastier than I imagined, I didn’t expect it to roll over so soon today. Agree on the economy, I would much rather be making money on the upside.
can you imagine what we’re in for when interest rates start to tick up… uggg.
SCARY Thanks for the heads up on GS action in /ES, watched as it topped this am, this will be another good indicator to note in future.
Short AIG $33.71, short $HGSI 24.55
Covered $AIG 33.89
covered half $HGSI 24.35
Short $STEC 21.21
Euro – trying support
/CL bumping another downtrend
/ES – sell-side trying to pick up
looking to be short /CL small scalps MUST stay under 77
stop at 77 saved me
– 2 ticks
long
going for .41 & .54
nailed .41
+21 ticks
holding past .54
never fall in love with a direction kids
out .80
+60 ticks
Solomon is doing this – no other buyers yet
shorts coming in /ES
they might regret…
over /CL 78 = short cover rally
should see 78.3
Solomon buying a lot
shorts have not covered – going…
Solomon will not relent here – 1000 + of the big S&P contracts – that’s huge money
out the last trade 78.12
+23 ticks
EXCELLENT call from CA on the bounce – nailed it with a big nasty sledge hammer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On a side note, Solomon (Citi) is long into the close over 1M for every spoos point move.
Good luck with that.
TARP now = Try A Ridiculous Position.
Maybe our friends at the infamous PPT????
Short $DTG 17.76
/es bounce 1026, third strike at price, tweezers bottom
Covered $DTG 17.88 and STEC 21.32, I only like $HGSI short right now
Covered 1/4 $HGSI 23.89
Covered last 1/4 $HGSI 23.90
Retox, u using Pit Squawk 1?
sounds like he’s using TOS audio feed
yes – tradersaudio spoos feed – it’s new today (free) on TOS – I have to say I like it a lot so far.
Where do I find this on my TOS?–I found it–the market cast
P.S. I think Shi is run by Devil Dog
YRCW
Good job Retox – KEEP POSTING. (Even though, after an otherwise satisfactory trading day, I feel somewhat de-balled having seen your wins.)
if you made money you are in the top 3% – be proud and very very happy
CA – you taking any swings tonight?
no not yet
I’m taking a small /CL short from 78.16 – looking for 77.70 area only – without a stop – I have NO conviction on the direction, just that we will see a little dip at some point in the overnights.
I know it’s shit but keep a little eye on MEXP tomorrow
CA, I hope you like the doji we just printed. (almost like old days.) 🙂
The tail/shadow of the doji were both excessive, beyond what I was thinking.
Yo Chart
on the XLE chart the long red candle reversal that you have the top green TL drawn off is a bad tick. so shouldnt it be a wedge with a break out that broke back down into the wedge?
correct. good eye
Damn J,
u were pretty active today… didn’t realize.. haha
Yes you did realize Pat.
/DX this am–crazy
just woke up – trying to make sense of it – my chart for /DX shows spikes to 81???
probably bad data – hope it wasn’t stops being hit.
Yeah, my 5 min and hourly show 81.34, my one minute only 77.04. upper daily trendline broken, for now…
perhaps will hold above. Nice overnight trade on /CL!
that’s why you can’t use stops in a thin contract
somebody is having a very bad morning…
overnight /CL short hit 77.70 target
+46 ticks
/DX strength:
Europe markets off by nearly 2% – earnings news & added QE in the UK, bank news, etc. Our futures traded in sympathy – beware this often gets shaken off.
Aussie – lost 170 pips on interest rate hike & Asian mkt weakness – was up 60 pips before the hike. nearing a key uptrend support line that must hold
Euro – EU comments on deficit cuts and general economic conditions along with a bank shake-up and a large Swiss bank came out with a EUR/USD sell recommendation. They went short on break of 1.4685 with a 1.4200 target, stop loss at 1.4865. Asian sovereigns (you had to expect this) and a US investment bank were sellers on the way down. The Reserve Bank of India is buying around the lows.
Yen – mild strength
Cable – $54B UK bank aid announced and UK bank shake-up to appease the EU over too much UK gov’t aid to banks – Cable fell, hit support, popped a bit – vulnerable at 1.6280 down to the 50 day (1.6250)
Swissie – up 130 pips – strength through the session – safe currency play
typical rhetoric but /CL shorts should watch as this develops:
• Iran will strongly confront any “illegal” gathering on November 4th. Only anti-US rallies are legal on that date – State News Agency
• Iran Leader Khameni says the U.S. is a “really arrogant power” and should change behaviour. Iran will not be deceived by Washington’s “apparent reconciliatory” behaviour
and don’t forget – inventory after the close
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