I’m all hedged out 100% and slowly reducing both longs and shorts until I get as close to 100% cash as possible. Why? Because the NASDAQ is in a neutral bound range and the DJIA and SPX are in symmetrical triangles. I refuse to involve myself until there’s a clear breakout/breakdown, and most likely the FOMC decision tomorrow will be the catalyst.
(Note: both upper and lower sym tri lines are fluid and still developing.)
Typically, consolidations after an upside move is indicative of more upside, but I’d rather see what exactly comes out from the Fed before I make more assumptions.Twitter
So what do you make of close CA?
This rally had the chance to break down, but it could not. Despite the volume being low and the overhead resistance, the market broke out anyway. I’m in 100% cash, having ditched my ‘swing’ shorts in the AM. I’m not putting my cash to work until after the reaction to he FOMC announcement tomorrow.
The sym tri’s have turned into asc tri’s /w breakout
Same thing going on w/ the VIX. sym tris to asc tris w/ breakdown. something like that.
Watch your credit-card debt as you limp from bar-to-bar tonight…..and don’t payoff your Amex with your Visa.
By the way….I have a friend named “Bill W” if you need to talk.
The technicals are not helping me make money the last few days!
Bleh-85% CASH/15% SHORT since Monday.
Looked same to me. Very bullish but I’m not going to discount this turning on a dime.
goddamn, it’s almost 5am and I just got back home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Expect a choppy, non-tradeable market today up until 2:15pm. I refuse to take any action before the meeting.
I assume you’ve seen the currencies? DAMN!
Guess it might be time to buy what you’ll need for a few years.
+2% day for me. In 100% cash into close and will consider short swings at the open if/when the 50-day upholds.
$ is done.
buy the dips your short swing idea is going against the tide…good luck…
full moon fever
in this environment technical analysis is not as effective. Bennie wants the market higher since it is going to solve alot of their problems. it makes dismantelling bad bands and AIG much easier, banks can raise money by new offerings, people gain their confidence and they spend. So he is going to act as a cheerleader and pump this market.
the above along with an over sold, yes still oversold condition is hazardous for being a contrarian.
still enjoy your posts, keep up the good work.
Dish, what measure shows you that we are oversold?
I just took a quick glance at some weekly charts, and I can see how you might say that we are not longer-term overbought, but even on the weekly charts, we are not oversold.
Maybe so on the monthly charts, on the MACD, at least.
I use the 200 dma as my guide. we are still well below the 200 dma. We dropped too much, too fast for too long. we are going to narrow the gap.
The 200dma is still dropping and the slope needs to smooth out abit more.
Our distance from the 200 dma is still more than the first trading day of january when the market was at 9000.
we will go to 8000 and pause there.
time to buy gold and gold miners.
plus VIX dropped below the 200 dma
actually we might even go as high as 8300 since that is the top border of the downward channer.
also VIX is forming a descending triangle and the signs for more bullishness.
do I need to say more.
dont fight the Fed, dont fight the tape.
On longer-term charts, we are still oversold. On 3, 5, 10 day chart, we are overbought. We could be heading higher, no doubt.
My decision to short depends on the selling pressure. If it’s an ordinary pullback, then no short.