Looks like we will get a small bounce this morning. I am waiting for a nice sized bounce, preferably an inside day, to add short positions. There is no way I will be loading up down here. Likewise, people who are going long should be aware that we have not reached a capitulation point. If the day does end positive after a gap up (no more than +2%), then the chances of going ‘largely short’ are high.
Take a look at the 5-month chart of the SPX. Volume is picking up and it is supporting the selling. Although this “sell-off” has been very slow, if you know what I mean, there is enough volume to back it up. At some point, we will hit capitulation and form a short-term bottom. When the reversal day does come, it will be blatantly obvious. Either you wait for a bounce, or you go long on the reversal day. I plan to do both.
From a swing trading perspective, I have no other charts to offer, because we are in ‘uncharted’ territory with no immediate support/resistance levels.
On another note, America doesn’t need to wait for a ratings agency for a downgrade. We’ve been downgrading, or more accurately, degrading ourselves for years. Just take a look around you, around society, on the streets. etc. America is downgraded in education on every level. 50% of high school students do not graduate. Asia is killing us with their armies of engineers, scientists and doctors. America is downgraded physically. Take a look at all the morbidly obese people walking the street. Many diseases are preventable by just keeping a healthy diet, not smoking, and not drinking (excessively). Yet, most people just don’t care. America has also downgraded itself psychologically, morally, spiritually…everything. Every facet of life. We’re in a much larger crisis than a financial one.
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Interesting poll results. I place moral and spiritual in the same group. Isn’t it odd that we send fit men and women into harms way to secure the rights of fat slobs to eat themselves into heart attacks and then throw themselves onto the pile of Obama’s managed health care plan. These same soldiers pay taxes in order to pay for the fat slobs’ health care and food stamps. These same soldiers slog through the streets of New Orleans in order to pull dead beats out of water they are to lazy to walk through. God bless our military. They are having a tough time with Obama as their leader. Too bad they are the ones who have to sacrifice for the stupid policies of an uncaring administration.
Chart our biggest problem is that we are spiritually bankrupt (not religious which is based on fear and causes wars). If our souls are not happy and at peace nothing else will be.
I wanted to ask you…I have a couple of longs that I bought yesterday. You say if we get a bounce to put on shorts, you say to wait for capitulation to buy longs. If you have longs right now…I am assuming then…in any short term bounce I should sell them off correct? Not hold them for the bottom and then up movement.
Lately I dont hold stocks longer than a day or two, I am trying to not trade ETF’s so much and am working with some stocks…but I am still uneasy holding them longer than a day…I want to swing trade and hold a few days/week but am too fearful of big moves down.
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Word. I would sell on any rally. If the market ends within the high-low range of yesterday, I will be shorting en masse end of day.
I’m with Lady G on that one. Many of our problems could be fixed with a proper spiritual perspective; the other crises exist laregly because we simply do not know who we are anymore.
Back to the market, I covered a lot of shorts yesterday. Got out of those damn 2xiETF’s. Bought a few March calls at the close for this bounce, which could get us up to 740-780 ….. or not, which is why I still have plenty of shorts and a ton of cash. At any rate, I also think we go lower after this bounce, into a suitable capitulation.
What about this post?
Blow Up Says:
TNA should go to at least 15.30 by trying to fill the gap. The same thing for the SP500 at 725/735. Will move my stop up on WNR if it holds today. The SPY had some large blocks bought at the end of yesterday. Watch for large volume on the SPY if it goes up with the 5day moving average. This might be the start of a four week rally. If it goes up on low volume don’t play for a rally yet. TNA could take a few days.
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CA, I’ve been following you since early Dec. and enjoy your outlook on TA and the world view. I’ve been in serious thought lately on the state of our country and the world beyond and sooner than later we Americans really need to take a step back and look at the consumption that drives our culture. There’s nothing wrong with consuming but there is also a smarter way to do it. The Gov. can try to legislate all the solutions they want but in the end if WE THE PEOPLE don’t change our way of thinking, implementing, and executing a way of life I fear the long term effects of this “multi-faceted world crisis” could be very devastating. I’m taking the day off and going to go rip some Teton powder on my skis. Thanks for the awesome blog CA.
Lady G, what happened to your plan? What was your plan when you put on the longs? Stick with your plan.
Besides price action, volume is absolute key. At this point, anything goes, but my decision to short will come after 3:45PM so I have a clear reading. I’m a swing trader, not day trader, fyi.
Wood
I HAVE A PLAN. I am working my plan. I am also listening to others who are smarter than me. I am trying to do some swing trading as part of my new plan. Not just ride ETFs up and down during the day.
Still I dont want to be stubborn and hold stocks for 3 days or a week if all the ‘ signs’ clearly say otherwise.
I am trying to ‘ see the signs’ and keep my eyes open. I am trying to gather more tools…hence the VIX addition. I am following CHART and Gio more closely.
I have a three month plan I am detailing in a log book to determine if this new direction will work. That being longs and shorts…in a swing trade verses just day trading and buying and selling during the day or sell next day.
I use to swing trade when the market was more stable, now its not…I need TOOLS and information to feel comfortable HOLDING more than a day. CA wrote he will SELL in any rally…that means I only hold my longs for one day since I bought them yesterday if we rally like he said today.
However I read this post by BLow Up…and just wanted some feedback about that.
There are a zillion different opinions out there about what to do. I am trying to gather intel…to make my own decisions.
Your comment WOOD IS USELESS TO ME, its not helpful at all…
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LG, you have a plan before you put on a trade. You have all your tools before you put on a trade.
Lol…you put on a trade, and then decide what to do with it.
Countdown to blow-up
T minus 10
Yes that is what I was thinking….SELL any rally.
I am back to only holding a stock a day or two at most. Which is day trading….
I am using stocks instead of lots of ETF”s but never the less its day trading.
Swing trading ….holding 3 days to a week seems still to risky till EVERYONE here on IBC says we have reached a bottom. Fly can hold CY and others for WEEKS without major issues, I cant.
So perhaps day trading is still the best plan.
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WOOD……go away…..
I studied carefully my stocks all day Sat and Sun before buying Monday. I had a plan to swing trade them. I can only make decisions with the tools I HAVE at that moment.
UNLIKE YOU!!! who apparently knows EVERYTHING ALREADY,
I dont know everything. When something new comes to me…I try and assimilate it and see if I can use it and if it makes me adjust my thinking than SO BE IT.
I am trying to be careful.
GO hassle someone else…..
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Lady G, I think Wood is just trying to be helpful. He has a lot more experience than you and you may learn something if you aren’t so defensive.
Nothing surprises me when people can not even spell their own name right. Lady Guinevere.
Wood is trying to help you !!!!
Excuse me but Guenevere can be spelled many ways.
Controller NOT SO…..he just wants to BE HEARD. You do not know the situation either of you….you are just forming an opinion without any information.
Wood has only one theme….and he has already expressed it a dozen times, like a broken record in the PPT and now here. I know his theme. He however cannot let it go. He has to keep expressing it constantly. Its a broken record and not helpful. I already know what he thinks…now he is just being annoying. He cant let it go…he has to keep jumping in even when he is not asked.
I am talking to CA about his information not to Wood…yet Wood has to jump into every post I make no matter where it is…and put his two cents in. I have heard it already, he just doesnt know when to let it go…and move on and go bother someone else. He keeps posting on every post I make…he is like a stalker 🙂
Let it go….
LOL at Lady G market wizard…
“…our biggest problem is that we are spiritually bankrupt…”
Then goes on to rant against someone who spends time helping others trade (and other stuff).
Karmha can be krewl.
Yogi….
Wood is NOT helping me. He stopped helping me days ago. He is just letting his ego run-a-muck. Any help he could give died- he is now just spouting ego comments….
My karma is just fine. I have spent my life helping others….what have you ever done? I have helped thousands…what have you done?
Your comments are juvenile.
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oh … but tell WoodShodder he looks kinda qute and he can be my Lancelot anyday.
“EVERYONE here on IBC says we have reached a bottom.”
That is patently false.
erm…
What about Woodshodders bottom? Can I reech that?
Maybe he can reech mine?
Hey Woodie!
Don’t eggnore me – my spirit vessel needs refilling!
everyone needs to calm down
@ Lady G and Wood…Get a room!
My soul equity loan just came through.
I’m off to the liquor store to stock up on spirits.
“Wood, my spirit vessel needs refilling”. What is this shit? IBC’s now become a soft porn chat room? 😉
Isn’t this the chart porn room?
This thread is hilarious…
man, what the fuck is going on here.
Now don’t get too disappointed ChartAddict, you young whippersnapper – this is between me and the Woodster!
Hi again Wood my sweetie!
I hope you got the speellling correct for my name now!!
Thanks for refilling me Woodie!! Oh, and wear those cute white cotton pants next time too.
TTFN.
The Lady G (spot)
Even if Wood doesn’t try to, he always ends up comment-high-jacking someone else’s tab. LOL.
Gio, yeah, it would be nice if some of that traffic would be at my own blog 😉
So CA, did you load up on shorts at the close? I smell blood in the water. That being said it could be that its pretty much all blood at this point.
You bears don’t get to say when to go long. LMAO!! I’m playing the ‘Bama bounce baybee! All the prissy babies wanna have a tizzy and crash teh market? Ha! Libtards unite, buy them neo-con fascist quitters out!!
LMAO at this thread, good lord.
Hey Chart,
what’s your call for tomorrow? Shouldn’t we gap up (due to oversold conditions) and resume the capitulation for the rest of the day? I sure hope so… sold my FAZ a wee bit early this afternoon…I want back in!
Hold those shorts beartards, meanwhile bert will be gorging at the dividend smorgasborg of T, INTC, SYY, JNJ, WMT, KO…
I have nothing to do with this tab.
oh yes you do, c’mon Chart! grace us with your psychic predictions for tomorrow!
I did add another 10% short position. I couldn’t convince myself to “load up” as I had intended to do.
Enigma – we are in a flag. Neutral movement relieves oversold conditions as well. I’d have to see the size of the gap in the morning. Any gap within the range is an area gap, anything outside of it is worth paying attention to.
cool, thanks CA! Some have forecasted a day of reckoning tomorrow… I’m getting an ominous intuitive feeling that such predictions may actually materialize. I just didn’t want to miss the party but better to be safe than sorry. I’m 95% cash now. I’ve had a great year so far & wouldn’t mind some more excitement
I am adding small and speculative shorts on a break and (hopefully) subsequent retest of 685. But you have to be very careful with that. And I may not even do it, it is just something I am looking at.
Man…got lucky with my exit of FAZ yesterday; so much for the drop today
Exited enough short positions to carry 10%Short/90%Cash. It’s a funny thing when the market is up 100 pts yet your bank shorts are all performing (except BAC). I am going to wait for direction on this one.
Also, I got too drunk last night, arrive back home at 4am.
wow, drinking in the beginning of the week? trade by day, get wasted during evenings? must be your youth
What’s your call for tomorrow? follow through rally (looks unlikely or if there is any, it will probably be sold into) or a big time sell off? I wouldn’t mind another rally to go short