Attention! Futures Mean Zero, US Market Rules!

If you look at $SPY it seems as if the world is ending this morning, buy what is ACTUALLY happening, Miners getting killed, do we care? Maybe if you own CAT or DE, I don’t. China is “weaker”. they just make up numbers so … I am not interested.

In this market of HFT, ALGOs and instant gratification, predicting the market is flipping a coin, look at last Thursday and Friday. You net them against each other and you get a wash.

I was very happy to see $SPY rally on the close and press 209 in aftermarket hours,

This morning is all about panic in Europe over mining stocks and that China exports fell. MW is bringing back, “Oil is going to $20”, just STFU.

 

Here in the good ole US, unemployment is down, consumers will spend a lot on Christmas and I promise you , the Sun will continue to rise every morning.

Unless you enjoy mattress investing, this is a mirage, go get a massage.

 

Enjoy the day

 

 

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I have blogged about this previously but just wanted to update all on the first reporting period for Pure Storage that went public at $17  in October.

PSEG will continue to see rapid growth at the expense of incumbents because they are light years ahead of them. (See upgrades below)

Oh and by the way:

Duquesne Capital Management LLC acquired a 1,600,000-share stake in Pure Storage Inc.  on Oct. 7th

 

 

Pure Storage (PSTG) stock gained 12.72% to $15.69 on heavy trading volume on Thursday morning after the company reported Q3 financial results.

The flash enterprise storage array company,  reported a narrower-than-expected loss and revenue that exceeded expectations for the fiscal 2016 third quarter.

Pure Storage posted a loss of 18 cents per share for the quarter ended October 31, beating estimates of a loss of 30 cents per share.

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I hate it when this happens! AMBA beats on EPS (48% growth rate), beats on Revenue ( (42% growth rate)  and because the “Camera on a Stick”  company isn’t hitting targets the stock gets clobbered,

This is easy, AMBA will increase sales to auto makers and security companies de-linking from GPRO , stock is a buy here, my target is $110 to $120 a share.

GPRO is death warmed over, avoid this stock.

TGIF!

 

 

 

For the period ended Oct. 31, Ambarella earned $1.08 a share, up from 68 cents a share a year earlier as revenue grew 42% to $93.2 million. Analysts had expected per share profit of 86 cents on $89.9 million in revenue.

But for the ongoing 4Q that ends in January, the company said it expects revenue to range between $65 million and $67.5 million, well below the $76.3 million forecast by analysts.

Ambarella blamed the shortfall on weakness in the wearable camera market

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Ok, so yesterday morning I was very long $SPY calls, stock hit $211, S&P blew through 2,100 and life is pretty fucking good.

I get cocky (master of the Universe etc.) and BOOM, crude tanks, Shooters in San Bernadino, Yellen opens her mouth, WTF just happened?

I am stopped out, giving me time to think, read a bunch of dumb ass perma bear tweets (no the sky is not falling , that is just rain) and MAKE A DECISION.

Never just sit there, do something! Unless just sitting there is the right thing to do.

Nothing as to why I am long has changed, I am in cash, so I get to buy back in at much lower prices,

I bought back in and behold its tomorrow and $SPY over 210 in PM trading, life is good again.

Until something or someone fucks with the Universe again, SNAFU. FUBAR.

Crude up this morning because OPEC is going to come to an agreement on firming up the price of oil. These cheating bastards have been killing each other since the year One, you REALLY think they are going to come to some agreement?

Uptrend confirmed today, Jobless claims, Yellen and AMBA numbers on deck .

Its nice to have a seat at the table.

Have a great day gang.

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Ok Fuckers, I am tired of writing intelligent sophisticated pieces and getting 100 pissant hits. it goes like this, Oil is bottoming, nothing but bad news and we still sit here $41 to $42 bucks a barrel. all the laughing assed HF managers who thought there was a huge stock market plunge coming were WRONG and now have to buy FANG at nosebleed levels just to keep the doors open. Biotechs are OVERSOLD, they are going to rally like greyhounds on crack and we all know…

QE4 is just around the corner.

There is no where to go but up , so quit fucking with your charts, get off your ass and buy  this rally.

 

TYIA

 

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The key to successful trading is to map out a plan every morning and know what landmines are out there. today (and the rest of the week) we have a slew of them:

ADP’s private-sector payrolls data for November is coming at 8:15 a.m. Eastern, followed by third-quarter productivity and unit labor costs at 8:30 a.m. The Fed’s Beige Book is due for release at 2 p.m.

Several Fed speakers are going to be yapping today, including Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart at 8:10 a.m., we will be jellin with  Yellen giving a speech at the Economic Club of Washington at 12:25 p.m. ET today and before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Senate at 10:00 a.m. ET tomorrow.

OPEC meets Friday (my favorite this week) and non farm payrolls report. I just ignore jobless claims now. No one gives a rats ass anymore.

As I clued yesterday, $SPY went asymptotic to the close and I fully expect it to continue this moonshot as the “chase the market” players realize its December and they are fucked if client statements aren’t filled with FANG, never mind everything else is below its 200 day moving average.

Yellen is going to raise rates come hell or high water, even with the economy at the abyss and we are all doomed come winter and 2016.

But WTF, who cares about tomorrow, you can only trade what’s on your screen.

Have a great day!

 

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Meaning that it a guide as to how the future economy is expected to perform. This presents a real challenge for Yellen to come up with a complete bullshit reason to raise rates, since that window closed last March and it ain’t coming back.

 

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. manufacturers grew at the slowest pace in November since the current economic expansion that began in mid-2009, a survey of executives found. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 48.6% last month from 50.1% in October, marking the lowest level since June 2009. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the index to total 50.5%. Readings under 50% indicate more companies are contracting their business instand of expanding. The ISM’s new-orders index sank 4 points to 48.9%, the lowest reading in more than three years. Exports were also weak again. Yet the employment gauge rose 3.7 points to 51.3%. In a separate report, the private research firm Markit said its final PMI manufacturing index finished at a 25-month low of 52.8% in November. Around the world, manufacturing indexes in China and Canada remained in negative territory, but surveys in Japan, the U.K. and the eurozone showed modest expansion.

More uncertainty, more to lose sleep over and who are these people?

There is no sane reason to raise rates, I am buying cigarettes, whiskey and canned goods, its time to go underground. we are fucked.

But not till $SPY hits a new HOD today on the huge euro rally coming along with crude prices. Welcome to the aslym.

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There are always issues when a stock is “linked” to another and that other stock is a dog, in this case AMBA is chained to GPRO (or as it  is affectionately known in Twitter circles –  camera on a stick).

This is unfair as AMBA is a semiconductor manufacturer with a number of revenue streams, surveillance (think body armor), automobiles (all autos have to have parking cameras by 2018) and (read below):
Ambarella, Inc. develops semiconductor processing solutions for video that enable high-definition (HD) video
capture, sharing, and display worldwide. The company’s system-on-a-chip designs integrated HD video
processing, image processing, audio processing, and system functions onto a single chip for delivering video
and image quality, differentiated functionality, and low power consumption. Its solutions enable the creation of
video content for wearable sports cameras, automotive aftermarket cameras, professional and consumer Internet
Protocol (IP) security cameras, telepresence cameras, and unmanned aerial vehicles in the camera market; and
manage IP video traffic, broadcast encoding and transcoding, and IP video delivery applications in the
infrastructure market.

Stifel thinks this Thursday may be a milestone for Ambarella (AMBA) because it’s likely to show strength beyond just the video-chip components it sells GoPro (GPRO). While a certain measure of AMBA’s growth has been closely linked to wearable cameras, Stifel believes AMBA’s 3Q results will show strength beyond that, on demand in IP security, drones, and automobile cameras. Stifel also expects a “decoupling” of AMBA shares from GPRO shares which have been closely linked. Saying AMBA’s sales can increase “in the 20%-25% range annually as new video applications emerge (with high margins),” Stifel reiterates a buy rating and $115 price target. AMBA currently trades at $63.34. 

Using PEG analysis:

The formula for the PEG ratio is:

PEG Ratio = Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio / Annual Earnings Per Share Growth.

PEG has its faults as you have to estimate a growth rate,that rate is expected to be 50% over the next 12 months and given a current P/E of 27,

PEG is  27/50 or   .54  Target price = $118.50.

So there is your target price, an indicatated growth rate of half that and the stock is fully valued, less than 25% and lookout below.

As I see it, AMBA missed last quarter because of delays with GPRO, I see EPS growth better than 25% this reporting period, so I will be a buyer.

Good luck trading today , remember, buy and hold is dead.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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First of all, “Shame on you,” there is no real Santa and if God does exist, he does not care that you need a new Mercedes.

Goldman can be as wrong as the talking heads on CNBC (but not 100% of the time as they seem to be & crude is not going to $20) but they are smart people and it pays to read what they write so:

In its outlook for next year, aptly titled “Déjà vu all over again,” the Goldman analysts forecast the S&P 500 to trade at the 2,100 level at the end of 2016 as rising rates compress P/E multiples, weighing on stocks even as companies’ earnings grow. 

Note that the S&P currently trades around this level so the rest of 2015 and 2016 will look like 2015.

The point to remember is some people made millions in 2015 and some people lost everything. It is not a stock market, it is a market of stocks. If you are in the right sector, you can lose money, you have to be in the right stock, ETFs are great to trade but own the right common (or preferred) underneath them. If you own Palo Alto (PANW), you have kicked ass, if you owned FireEye, Inc. (FEYE) you didn’t.

In a rip roaring bull market, everything goes up, we are not in one, I am looking to hit singles and doubles, taking profits and 25% is huge. I heard this in the dining room of the NYSE and have never forgotten it: Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

Twitter is a great place for ideas, there are people I follow who run circles around Gartman, Kass, McCollough and yes Cramer.

Its your money, do your own research and if you need help learning the trade, buy into a service or a platform. $250 or 500 or a grand is nothing compared to walking blindly into this machine and losing it all.

This is serious shit and there are people on the other side of every trade that are expecting to win and you to lose.

Enough bullshit, I am long $SPY, but I want to see us over 210 TODAY, I expect crude to trade in this range forever, gold to continue to get stomped and biotech is a crapshoot, one bad PR and you lose 75% of your investment, know what the fuck you are doing before you venture there.

Last thought; Set stops, never fall in love and if you don’t like the advise block them.

 

Have a great trading day.

 

 

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I spent some time last night reading the “spin” coming from retailers as to Black Friday sales. Forget what they said and remember these two words, “they sucked”

I spent a good part of Friday, checking out the crowds in Northern Virginia malls (Tysons, The Galleria), Maryland  and DC.

I was underwhelmed by the crowds. it appears opening on Thanksgiving merely siphoned off the “door beaters” that get up at Midnight for a $20 coupon from Lord & Taylor or a $10 panini grill, toaster oven or mini blender at Macys.

My driver found a spot 20 feet from the  entrance at every Mall, there were no lines at Starbucks and you could readily find a Sales Associate.

Even with manufacturers offering deep discounts, (Michael Kors purses marked down from $250 to $48, Fitbit Charge $119) there was no one buying. In addition:

During the Thanksgiving weekend, UA remained promotional–not only in apparel but also within footwear. To wit, on Dick’s Sporting Goods (as illustrated online), they offered $15 off select athletic footwear brands as a doorbuster promo and sustained this throughout the weekend. In addition, we consistently saw Armour Baselayer 25% off (new Y/Y) and Logo Hoodies 25% off (consistent Y/Y). In addition, over the weekend we saw 25% off Fleece Pants, Thermals & Waffle shirts, and 1/4 Zips.

Given that Piper Jaffray analyst, Erinn Murphy reduced her PT on Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) after inventory rose in footwear and apparel which will likely lead to price promotions in the coming weeks. Consequently, she is reducing Q4 EPS from $0.46 to $0.44 and cutting the PT to $88 from $97 by reducing her multiple from 60x to 55x. The analyst maintained a Neutral rating.

Ford will give you 5k on a black friday F-150 truck (the  best truck in the world, I have one, King Ranch edition) if bought out of bloated inventories  and of course if you looked hard you could get a flat screen for $100 (with mail in rebate).

I checked out high end retailers (Neiman’s, Sax, Burberry, Ralph Lauren etc.) and it appears the strong dollar is killing the traffic from rich foreigners who stay at the Ritz and buy whatever is in the window.

Unless there is a last minute stampede (Daddy, you are ruining Christmas) I see a big lump of coal in the retailers stocking this Christmas.

Happy trading today.

 

 

 

 

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