I admit confusion yesterday, I follow $SPY and trade it, but the movement this month was confusing.
For some reason Twitter was just a lot of cynical drivel yesterday morning.
You would think warm weather and the Holiday Season would brighten the mood, but doom and gloom seemed the order of the day.
I needed clarity, peace of mind and just some focus on the market.
I shut down my Twitter feed, walked freckles and BOOM, clarity.
Some times it pays to remove the noise, slow down your heartbeat and think for yourself. If you are unable to think for yourself (some investors can’t, like my brother), the market, especially this one, will eat you alive.
Memo to all: $SPY is still in a bull trend, playing from the long side increases the odds of winning, do not overthink this, ever.
My pal EB has taught me a lot about technicals, I invest on fundamentals but when stocks open up (or down) on a gap move, they just have to fill that gap.
Yesterday, sold my calls I held overnight, let the market fade and bought right back in on the fill.
I had a good day.
This leads us to Unicorns (pre IPO, Billion $ valuation) and Black Swans, in particular,the Turkey corollary to The Black Swan:
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to “avoid being the turkey” by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to “turn the Black Swans white”
The key to trading markets could not be explained any better.
The Black Swan is out there, it is just buried in a sea of noise, spin and agendas.
When you read an opinion ask yourself, ” what’s the agenda here, is the writer trying to educate or convince with this piece?” Is there a hidden agenda, missed the bull move, just lost a huge client, is a New York Giant fan?
What I am trying to say here is :
You are smarter than you give yourself credit, half of what is said on Twitter is tongue in cheek (the other half is written by the unemployed at Starbucks because they can’t afford wifi), trust your own analysis, and only with complete clarity, MAKE THE TRADE. selah.
I own longterm, $AMBA (makes money huge growth potential), $PAH (I trust the Fly and Ackerman on this one), $PSTG (Flash memory is the BOMB), $EOG (EagleFord THE shale play), $PANW ( They own cyber), $SGEN (ADC Technology, collaborations), $ADXS ( like $SGEN its about the delivery) and (to be published tomorrow).
Happy holidays! Futures smokin!
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A black swan is not necessary for an imminent decline. I mainly follow NQ futures, and if it isn’t done today, it will be shortly.
Absolutely, a black Swan comes out of nowhere, although it has always been there
The very definition of a black swan event is one that cannot have been recognized, even in hindsight. That’s why he called his book ‘Fooled by Randomness’. So, what difference does it make that it has always been there if its presence cannot be determined?
Importantly, the monumental edifice of debt that is about to blow-up is NOT a black swan event…for it is entirely predictable. Only the timing is in question.