I spent some time last night reading the “spin” coming from retailers as to Black Friday sales. Forget what they said and remember these two words, “they sucked”
I spent a good part of Friday, checking out the crowds in Northern Virginia malls (Tysons, The Galleria), Maryland and DC.
I was underwhelmed by the crowds. it appears opening on Thanksgiving merely siphoned off the “door beaters” that get up at Midnight for a $20 coupon from Lord & Taylor or a $10 panini grill, toaster oven or mini blender at Macys.
My driver found a spot 20 feet from the entrance at every Mall, there were no lines at Starbucks and you could readily find a Sales Associate.
Even with manufacturers offering deep discounts, (Michael Kors purses marked down from $250 to $48, Fitbit Charge $119) there was no one buying. In addition:
During the Thanksgiving weekend, UA remained promotional–not only in apparel but also within footwear. To wit, on Dick’s Sporting Goods (as illustrated online), they offered $15 off select athletic footwear brands as a doorbuster promo and sustained this throughout the weekend. In addition, we consistently saw Armour Baselayer 25% off (new Y/Y) and Logo Hoodies 25% off (consistent Y/Y). In addition, over the weekend we saw 25% off Fleece Pants, Thermals & Waffle shirts, and 1/4 Zips.
Given that Piper Jaffray analyst, Erinn Murphy reduced her PT on Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) after inventory rose in footwear and apparel which will likely lead to price promotions in the coming weeks. Consequently, she is reducing Q4 EPS from $0.46 to $0.44 and cutting the PT to $88 from $97 by reducing her multiple from 60x to 55x. The analyst maintained a Neutral rating.
Ford will give you 5k on a black friday F-150 truck (the best truck in the world, I have one, King Ranch edition) if bought out of bloated inventories and of course if you looked hard you could get a flat screen for $100 (with mail in rebate).
I checked out high end retailers (Neiman’s, Sax, Burberry, Ralph Lauren etc.) and it appears the strong dollar is killing the traffic from rich foreigners who stay at the Ritz and buy whatever is in the window.
Unless there is a last minute stampede (Daddy, you are ruining Christmas) I see a big lump of coal in the retailers stocking this Christmas.
Happy trading today.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I noticed all the SEARS had empty parking lots.
I dunno…outlets at least are doing well. Sawgrass Mills Mall had no parking available.
Sawgrass is always packed… Aventura too… S Florida is its own reality.