Crude is holding 32-33, financials are leading the charge, and the emerging markets are catching a bid. I mean….c’mon. Doesn’t make any sense right?
We are getting a simultaneous break and confirmation of long bias across major indices into the new month. While it’s very important to hold this move, don’t be shy and get in there and press. All of the signals I posted about over the weekend are triggering, tough to hold down a market when that all happens at once.
Here’s the just of what’s happened today so far:
1.) Financials triggered the outside-week, weekly hammer signal and are leading the charge today.
2.) Emerging markets triggered the inside month signal above 31.
3.) TLT bonds triggered short below last weeks sell-signal.
Everything is now right in the world, chaos has been restored.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
i got a rally into March 9th
With all do respect there’s really no way you can tell how long this rally lasts. Nonetheless, buy this shit.
true, always just a guesstimation
Looks like a face-ripping-off bear market rally. Gold is the new VIX, and holding up…thus far.
Interesting to see GLD hold up here, have to think this changes very soon. Below 117, then 115 it could get ugly fast.
Jesus.
Congrats man. You are an oracle
I don’t tout it much, but the information I have/strategy I use is exactly how price works. It’s a fact that we have discovered.
Still in it’s infancy, but testing is going very well.
As I said in your last blog post, it’s all Central Banks…that is all that matters. Abe’s Aid said they would devaluate and Draghi sent that Letter promising to do everything. Market Smelled Coke and Bought this mess. Hope you are all long…Draghi has only tonight and tomorrow night (I believe) to dampen expectations before he has to go silent leading into meeting. My bet, looking at German Bonds, he really should talk it down his actions in the Europe Session. Market is pricing in one massive action by the ECB and BoJ and IMHO they don’t have it. T/A is fun, We all know how to do it..but IMHO it’s Coke that is the only thing driving this addicted market.
While I really appreciate you taking the time to try and justify things, what I do isn’t standard T/A. Quite honestly you clearly have no idea what my strategy is. Price action isn’t random, and what we use are truths of price action that can’t be disproved. Whether or not Draghi acts I don’t care, it still plays out within my strategy.
You clearly are educated and extremely fundamental and that’s fine, but without even the most standard usage of technicals (or some sort of statistical analysis) you will not beat this market. Timing is everything, regardless of the strategy I use and whether or not you believe it. Simply saying “Coke” drove this market is a cop-out to understanding other factors of the market place and the trading environment. Trying to rationalize this market over the last 3 years does not pay you.
Got two ECB Voices tonight ECB Villeroy and Coeure tonight. Futures turn red after their speeches came out. It appears you use Japanese Candle Sticks with trendlines and a possible Fan, but not Ganns. For myself, I use my own Fibonacci Analysis.
Broadening Formations are how stocks move on every time frame; every minute of every hour of every day. Ganns only got half of it right and he didn’t know exactly why. Price constantly forms a series of higher-highs and lower-lows, a systematic process of price realization. Inside bars and outside bars are fundamental truths of price action, representing equilibrium and volatility expansion, respectively. And the only necessary Japanese Candles are hammers and shooting stars. We do not know why they occur, as they aren’t fundamental truths, but give signals within the broadening formations that will line up with Time Frame Continuity to enhance our long/short bias. This is exactly how price works on any/all time frames. Yes, it sounds crazy.
As you can see, I can therefore speak 100% objectively at any point in time. X is happening on Y time-frame because of Z, and we are green on Y timeframe reconfirming our bias…etc, etc, etc. Macro-economic news, fundamentals, etc. are subjective; and at the end of the day must trade this way regardless of the news. My process is a constant If/Then scenario, and “I think” is not in my vocabulary. I know.
Well, I am certainly interested to see how your analysis plays out going forward. Macro may be subjective, but it is an essential consideration in my trading. It will be particularly interesting to see what happens with short-term gold. IMO, global currency issues are keeping it lit and a EUR rally could really put some wind in the sails. The same could also lift equities…but I am not so certain of that. N100 futures have done a solid 50% retrace of the initial decline.
Don’t get me wrong, these macro factors are what are moving the markets/causing this uncertainty. I’d never disagree with that. But at the end of the day, price action is king. It’s difficult right now, no doubt. I wrote in December that no one has a freaking clue where this market is going, and I still stand by that. However, if you are trading “common sense” and what you think will happen, you’ll get run over. Markets are looking for some form of normalization, and until we are even close to that, the price action is all you can follow.
I fully appreciate the price action theory…and made far better returns when that was virtually my sole consideration. Hence my interest in your approach.
Cool cool, wasn’t trying to stir the pot or anything.
Take a look at the /CL 5-min chart during the oil number and into the pit close — prime broadening formation example. higher-highs then lower lows. Order flow/supply & demand force this process (as, at a certain point we have more buyers than sellers, and vice versa). Action like today is prime example of the Broadening Formation effect.
Crude should certainly have some upside…if for no other reason than a decline in the DX (itself a basket of irrelevant fuckery that badly needs a trade-weighted and currency selection re-jiggering). However, IMO, their are too many variables in the crude equation for a “highest probability trade”.
And…stir away… “from the fires of derision, flows molten excellence”.