I am up slightly today, mainly due to CALL. My favorite biotech IMUC is falling apart, but I am still going to hold it for future run ups and catalysts. The price is currently in the volume void.  IBIO looked good today, rising to 69 cents in morning trading. My positions and their charts can be found here. Anyways, let me get to some patterns you might want to see before the close. Here they are.

My favorite is actually CALL, one of my positions. The chart is below. Stop under 16?

I opened this under the Devil’s recommendation within The PPT. I own it at about 14.00.  The short float is over 40%, which will give fuel to a short squeeze should the price break the resistance. There is some overhead supply at the 200MA, where I will consider selling.

Recently I feel like my book has been asleep, with the occasional wake up call from MagicJack. I ended last week on a better note, as I felt a rise in my positions in the late session on Friday. However, today essentially erased my paper losses. It was spectacular to say the least. Here’s my book by position size: USG, KLIC, IMUC, WNC, RTEC, CALL, VHC, and IBIO. The charts can be found here. My two biggest positions were up over 3%, while my VHC came back from the dead with a 16% move to the upside. While I sound as if I am satisfied, I am really not, for this drawdown has been painful and annoying. It’s probably not over, and there is much more ground that needs to be covered. The shit could hit the fan real quick — my IMUC shares could fill the volume void below or who the hell knows.

One thing that irritates me is that GFA took off without me. I was staring at the screen last week, watching it trade at 3.90. Today it closed at 4.48. It reminds me of CX, a stock that went from 4.00 to 12.60 in a little over a year. I feel that GFA still has more room to run, but I am not going to chase. I would rather wait until a pullback.

My smallest position was added today, IBIO. It’s a flu stock. To be honest, I felt like I needed some excitement to play around with, and I really loved the falling wedge setup. The trade should be fairly easy to manage — stop under the 20MA and a target of about 75 cents. I was debating between IBIO and INO. In my last post, I featured INO. I didn’t add it today because there is time needed for it to develop a base before ramping up into the 1.00 range. The chart for IBIO is below. I was filled between 62 and 63 cents. There was a late day fade I was not happy about, but lets see how it rides. This one is purely for entertainment, with a little cash at risk.

By the way, keep an eye on MNST, big moves are coming.

I was cruising the charts on each of my positions, looking at the bigger pictures (past three years) and their volume profiles. When applied to the longer term periods on a chart, a volume profile analysis can help you see where the supply levels of a particular stock are, and subsequently it can lead into discussions on future movements in price.  One of the previous tabbed bloggers, ElizaMae, has done a lot of work on this, so I encourage you to read over his blog.

I found that IMUC is at a critical point, both technically and in terms of volume profile analysis, so I will go ahead and discuss this stock.

Here is the three year chart of IMUC with the volume profile.

I marked three critical price levels, the highest line is at 2.68, the midline is at 2.43, and the last line (the true point of control) is at 1.98.

So what do I make of all of these levels? Well, look at the 2.68 price level, and the 1.98 level. Those two prices have proven to be the most active areas of trading for IMUC, and that’s why I have labeled them both as points of control or value. Between these two points, there is a relative lack of volume, and that is known as a volume pocket. Price typically moves through these voids very quickly because of the lack of supply. Thus, it can be a bearish indicator when approached from the top (selling pressure), or a bullish indicator when entering from the bottom (buying pressure). Right now, IMUC appears to be entering this volume pocket between its points of control from the top. This is BEARISH, and quite frankly, something I do not want to see.

However, I have added an additional price level that has been an area of technical importance for the stock, the 2.43 level. The price level hits the previous peaks dating back to 2010, and served as the neckline for the head and shoulders top that formed in 2012. Furthermore, the price has also had some volume significance, as the true void significantly opens below this price. It’s as if the price were the ground before a cliff, so to speak. IMUC closed right at this level last week. On a weekly scale, if it crosses this line in the sand, then things can get ugly and price may very well hit the 1.98 point of control. If it holds, then I think the price may appreciate back to the 2.68 region. The action this week should be exciting.

Keep in mind, the volume analysis is a rather dynamic indicator, as the void could eventually become a point of control if the greater amount of volume in the market values IMUC at that price. I would also wait until the end of the week to judge the behavior around the pocket (price may enter the void, and then bid back up by the end of the week).

Here are two interesting charts for influenza plays, VICL and INO. I recommend you keep these both on your watchlists for a couple weeks, as some action or bigger moves may be afoot.

VICL appears to be pressing its overhead resistance. It is either going to break here within the next week, or head lower. Keep this on watch, it has been hot lately.

INO has a mix of drugs in their pipeline. Anyways, the technical set up looks like it may provide an opportunity in the weeks to come, should it maintain the multiyear trendline and form a base.

On a side note (unrelated to the flu), take a look at IMUC, a stock that I have a position in. 

For IMUC, I timed my first two purchases via pennant formations. That had been working well, and it was being picked up on my technical analysis pattern screens. However, after the recent correction and subsequent bounce, I noticed a channel was forming. The bounce from the trendline could still be a bear flag, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Take a look at GFA and CX today. I sold CX a few weeks ago for a nice gain, the stock has been a beast since the 2011 bottom. GFA looks like it’s trying to bounce up on the channel. I like it here, and noted it last week within The PPT.

There’s the chart. In an effort to keep things brief, GFA is a turnaround homebuilder (in Brazil) and they have been showing signs of success lately. Look into it, there’s more about their acquisitions become profitable as well. This may be the technical time to buy.

I have been missing my marks lately after coming off of a great February. The correction may be brutal, or it may be brief, only time will tell. My two big positions, USG and IMUC, are up nicely today.

My book has not been friendly lately. My three favorite setups from last week (KLIC, RTEC, and DANG) have failed to fire because of the unfavorable market conditions. I sold DANG. KLIC did break support, but I think it will be heading back up soon. RTEC is just waiting to break out (today would have been a nice time to add). The action this week has really put a dent in my YTD gains, but the paper losses and falling paper gains have yet to materialize because I have not sold. I intend to hold my favorite stocks like USG and IMUC throughout 2013 and possibly into 2014, for I truly believe that the dynamics of the companies will translate into higher share prices. However, I do reserve a portion of my portfolio for highly speculative plays based upon technical analysis. Although I am still almost fully invested, I may swap out some of my positions for these names.

I found some technical setups through some pattern screeners and sifted through the ones that I found to have the best look. It came down to 7 picks. The charts can all be found on finviz here. I will highlight my favorites in this blog.

The first is MNST. Look at that triangle, it is clean and a solid geen day tomorrow may allow this to move to the 200MA. I would let it digest there because the moving average is declining.

Then we have CWH, a REIT. Beautiful pennant. Stop under 22 and it target of 26.

Take a look at the others yourself (in the link posted above), my third favorite is XLS. Although RTEC isn’t in the pattern scan, I would watch that name too, it could enter the gap any time now. I will try to be better at posting my entries and exits on twitter and through the blog each night or day.

I got my ass kicked today. My CALL shares hit the ground running, only to be sold off in the afternoon session. Everything else was in the red. I didn’t sell a share of any of my positions. I am probably plotting my own demise. Battle lines are being drawn here and if the Dow can follow the Russel lower, then a true correction will materialize.

I posted some hammers last night, but I this market session is more appropriate to apply the scan to. The charts have all been imported into finviz and can be found here. Take a look and see what was bought up of its lows.

Last night I posted what my book looks like and my future picks, it’s  found here. Before I go in depth on GFA, DDD, and AKAM, I just wanted to show you some candlestick patterns. I went ahead and found some hammers that occurred during the last market session. I love hammer reversals and they always offer great intraday follow up trades if you’re into that. I imported the charts into finviz and they can be found here. Which ones do you think are due for a reversal?

I haven’t posted anything in awhile due to other obligations. I have been in and out of the market, but as of the last trading session I am fully invested. This wasn’t the plan, it just worked out like this because of my large investment in USG. My current book consists of the following stocks in order of position size: USG, KLIC, IMUC, WNC, RTEC, CALL, DANG, and VHC. The charts can be found at Finviz here.

I really wanted to be out of USG at the higher prices, preferably when the Fly exited. However, that didn’t happen because some people started talking about wallboard prices decreasing. The stock instantly dropped and the shares have continued to languish over the past week. I truly believe in the long term story on housing and that is why I have decided to stick with this play and not sell for a small loss. Investors are going to continue buying up housing related stocks when they dip, and USG is no different from the rest. The shorts in the stock will be pummeled in the years to come.

As the S&P 500 hit new highs on Thursday, I added three new plays to my book to bring me back to nearly 0% cash. I am going balls to the wall here. Hopefully it’s not a mistake. The three stocks I added were KLIC, RTEC, and DANG. I added the first two stocks for fundamentals with technical reasons, and I added the chinese burrito for shits and giggles.

KLIC is setting up for some gains here. By the end of this year I would like to see it trading around 16 bucks a share. The price relative to all of its fundamentals is outstanding. It is liquid as hell with no debt. I don’t mind parking some cash here for awhile to realize these gains. I am just trying to perfect my timing through employing the technical/geometrical set up, the trade is not solely based on this. As of Thursday, the stock is also in the top 10 of The PPT.

RTEC caught my eye last week when it was in the top 10 of The PPT. I liked it because it was not yet extended, yet it was still producing a high hybrid score. I am in this one purely for growth. It has had a 1 year EPS growth rate of over 70%, blowing its peers and industry out of the water.

DANG is my smallest position next to the lame stock of VHC. I bought it for pure technicals and as a gamble. I hate buying chinese stocks due to the fraud and this is the first one I have purchased in awhile. The declining trendline appears like it is being tested. The bottom action screams coiling/compression, and the bulls may be able to charge through the resistance. My goal here is to trade it to the 200MA and make a quick exit, if I am ever so fortunate.

I am willing to shuffle some of my positions and swap out some stocks. I would rather hedge myself with some shorts to limit my overall exposure, but I might just be stupid enough to go in on margin here with some new longs. If my CALL  or WNC positions have any meaningful moves this week, then I would be happy to finance new trades with the proceeds.

My next ideas are to include: GFA, DDD, and AKAM.  

Good luck trading everyone, and enjoy the new highs while they are here.

The 200MA Rockets screen is something I began in order to write about something somewhat original. I felt I needed to establish something. The truth is, I hardly take those positions because of their risk. I like to trade and invest in stocks with some quality or fundamental backing. In this type of tape it is important to look towards what is going up, instead of scooping up the laggards in hope for a cocaine fueled gain. For any of you who followed the last post on LOGI (CHART), it ended up being rejected from the trendline. It may try to bounce off of this bottom, but who the fuck knows. I am done with it and could care less.

On to something more refreshing and viable from an investment and trading standpoint…

Searching for stocks under their book value is something everyone knows about, and it is championed by the great Warren Buffet and Graham. The first good trade I made using this strategy was with LUK (CHART). My grandfather told me about the company and how he is buddies with the Buffett-admired Ian Cummings. Apparently he used his penthouse on certain vacations. Anyways, that’s another post in itself. I bought in the teens and sold it in the mid twenties. It is still ripping higher. The upswing may or may not have been driven by the fact that it was trading below book value. Thus, I tried to imitate its parameters via The PPT.

The screen produced the following names: AHT, BPOP, JPM, KEP, MFG, NBBC, NCS. The charts can all be found here: CHARTS. I like all of the names The PPT produced for this screen. However, two of them especially stood out. The Japanese bank MFG and the South Korean utility company KEP. Both of these names are below book value and appear to be testing the trendline on the daily chart. They may break out from here.

I need some sleep. I hope some of that made sense. We will see how the markets react tomorrow and the next few days.

CURRENT POSITIONS: IMUC, BZH, USG, VHC (proud owner until the mess pans out; small position), CALL, WNC. I am still awaiting the moment to pick up some SAM.