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SUPERSTITION LEADS THE WAY: CreateCoin Premium, an excerpt:

This time last month the markets were beginning a rally from the range lows and the sentiment was as negative as any time since the crash in 2008. The rally actually “got some legs” and many stocks rallied sharply. The government numbers continued to be awful but there was even some positive talk in the press that things weren’t as bad as they seemed. The talk of the “death cross”, head and shoulders tops and a break of support disappeared for a moment. Amazingly, after one vicious down day this week, the talk has quickly returned to overwhelmingly negative. There is talk of the “Hindenburg Omen” and today is Friday the 13th. Everyone finally has the word “deflation” in their minds and Glen Beck is talking about the Weimar Republic. The world is convinced of a double dip and a depression.

The fact is that the stock, commodity and forex markets seem incredibly thin. Stocks are liquid, but almost everything moves at once and in the same direction. Commodity prices are moving sharply higher as the refuge of “real” assets and the bond market rally bringing Treasury yields near their crash 2008 lows are spooking everyone just a little bit. But this action is all part of the “new normal”. Yes, growth will be manipulated to barely positive. Growth will be a thing of the past and the sooner everyone gets used to that, the better off the markets will be. How can there be growth when we continue to exist in a credit contracting environment? It cannot be done without the aid and assistance of the government creating the money out of thin air. Creating capital, as it were. They can still do it, but certainly not forever.

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A Tawdry Tale…

So, here I am, mostly minding my own business and accumulating my chosen stocks on weakness. Most folks tell me that I’m crazy to buy anything because the market “has to go down”. After all, everything sucks and a double dip recession is assured. Nevertheless, I continue to accumulate falling knives and otherwise “left for dead” stocks of many ilk.

Before you knew it the market rallied and kept going. Maybe it was good earnings or maybe the computers got too bearish. Maybe they thought there would be a new round of free money from our friends in Washington because after all, a healthy stock market eventually means a healthy economy. Right Maestro? So there was no reason not to bid-em-up and anyone who hedged looked a little foolish.

The bid-em up crowd was happy to get back to the top of the trading range but there were still doubts about whether Uncle Benny would pony up. After all, it has been almost two years since the crash and a birthday present is certainly in order. But no wonderful gift arrived. We simply got a card bringing us “All Good Wishes for the Future” signed, Ben…There was no check…Boy were we pissed. We’ll show that putz not to bring presents to the party!

After one trading day where everything went down, the consensus is that we suck, again and that we have to fall big. So far we are holding at the first area of big support, right smack in the middle of our almost 4 month trading range. Now, it’s all up to the dollar. Can the Powers that Be manipulate it to go lower like they have for the past few months? How about some consolidation first to work off the vicousness of all that trending?

We should no longer be thinking about the heat outside but rather the cold winter approaching and the holiday season. We are coming into historically the worst time of the year and everyone is hedged and ready for the crash. As long a we remain in our range, there will be no crash or stupendous market-shorting opportunity, unless you think yesterday will be repeated ad-nauseum. It is possible, but doubtful.

Find what is testing its recent early July lows and buy them for the inevitable bounce back to their early August levels. That’s what the markets are giving us now and that is what we will take…No stupendous bullishness or bearishness. Just waiting for the near-term extremes that continues to be opportunity, and that will probably be nearer to SPX 1060 than 1080…

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To the Nabobs of Negativity…

One day “they” say that the PC business is going gangbusters. Earnings are announced and drooled over. The ancillary businesses are doing well too and the PC complex proceeds to rally 10-30%.

Then, literally, in two weeks, the entire complex is downgraded and the PC business is in “dire straights”. Nobody will be buying PC’s, hard drives, video cards, keyboards, etc. because the only product selling is the iPad.

Do you believe these imbiciles? These are the sames folks that tell you not to buy high-yielding defensive stocks because there is “no growth”.

The structure of our economy is changing. The structure of the stock market is changing. We need to change the structure of the people who talk to investors. They need to be swept out like the over-the-hill Senior Congressman who have taken a few too many “travel junkets”.

Change is everywhere whether we like it or not. Let’s make sure change occurs where it is needed most.

BTW–don’t expect much from the FED. They will tell you lies with a straight face…

(Hat tip to Agnew and Safire)

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