How many times to I have to say the same thing? I feel like Bill Murray in “Ground Hog Day”. What? The market is living the past two years over again and again? In a similar time in the calendar? You don’t say!
Again, a stimulus-filled Fourth Quarter posts decent economic strength and the Hoi-Polloi INSISTS that it will extrapolate and continue through the rest of the year. And it simply does not. But in each of the past three years there has been hundred of billions of dollars in “assistance” to the investment community and that money stays locked in the closed loop of liquid financial investments. That capital is used for the “Bernanke Bid” that stays under the market regardless of the news. We are currently in the countdown for the next round.
Now, once again, the markets are dealing with all kinds of really shitty news. Even earnings are disappointing. But the hope of Central Bankers to the rescue keeps the Bid rather firm. But don’t let that fool you as there is much damage under the surface. Add that to the legitimate fear of a failure of the finacial system in Europe, again.
The “Europe is Saved” rally started near SPX 1200. We peaked just above 1400. Testing 1300 makes perfect technical sense and it won’t be so bad. Of course it won’t be easy. Emotions must be flared. We must face all out destruction or complete Nirvana. The truth is somewhere in between.