So, Apple goes up $50. Amazon rises $30. Bad news is wholly ignored. “Never mind the negatives, its how the market responds to them that counts”, is what you’ve been told. Its a great market environment this moment.
After starting April with a little corrective downtrend to the latest primary breakout near SPX 1360, and some calling for the end of the world, the combination of Apple earnings and Bernanke’s psychological perfection was a combination that could not be ignored. So we quickly traveled up to make back what was lost in the ensuing two weeks, yet are still down for the month and still stuck in a range near the top of the recent trading range. It has been another of those “Death Squeeze” markets, where reactions have been extreme.
It is no coincidence that the markets fell going into last weekend’s gab-fest in Washington with the G20 and the IMF. They were doing some fundraising for Europe and it was only partially successful. But after Bernanke spoke, the general market perception is that “we are near where we should be” in the economy and only the domestic earnings picture matters. So be it for now.
Markets are once again enamoured with the prospect of unlimited assistance if the market should ever substantially correct, so it won’t substantially correct. A masterful psychological strategy by our Uncle Ben. And it has taken a few years and more than a few trillion dollars to get here.
My long-standing topping call near the tax due date of mid-April still stands. We have not broken out, yet sentiment is quickly morphing to “indestructible”.
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We will see with Europe’s new next week !!…
The GDP number should have spanked markets lower, instead the markets rally, the sentiment number should have bounced markets, instead they sold off. Combine this with the uber bullishness in the markets, with complacency very high, and you have very unstable markets
Amen. Costanza market…
Crp. earnings surprisingly good for some companies. Go where the profits are.
No one ever said this was easy. As bullish as I was in March 2009, I’m not so right now. Three years is a great run and I’m up wildly from the lows. I can’t say I’m bearish in a perma-bear kinda way, but I’m fading bonds and I’m fading the natural resource that allegedly is going to negative. (Yeah right. Tell me some more bullshiite. I’ve been around the block a few times and heard that before.) I’m patient. My positions are properly sized. I’ll write premium to fund the cost of carry. When the CNBS bobble heads are panicking about the death of equities, as they were in late 2008 and early 2009, I’ll be around to pick up their margin calls — at fire sale prices. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was…
Indestructible, perhaps. I would definitely define it as bulletproof. The bad is good, good is good bullshit lasts until it doesn’t, for reasons that are rarely clear. Explanations for the collapse will flow easily, blaming the ceteris paribus environment that we have risen in for months — Europe on the brink budgetary gridlock and hard landings, oh my. Ultimately, if history serves as a guide, this never say die attitude will combust in an engulfing flame burning at 451 degrees. Yogi’s quote of David B. says it best “same as it ever was”.
My thought, worth 2c in Bernanke ClownBux, is the the current QE ends June 30. Give it 2-4 weeks to start the spiral and leading to next QE announcement.
there wont be ANY qe. the cord was cut,baby needs to stand on it’s own 2 feet. if there is,it only signals total failure. then what?
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