Welcome to Black Friday, a most American phenomenon.
Today is the day where folks take shopping to a new level. It is a full contact sport where it is kill or be killed for that little TV/PC/Blender, etc. I hope you all got what you wanted!
Black Friday is a little different this year. Early reports say that 75% of spending is cash or debit. CASH or DEBIT? You know what that means; not only is there no credit for mortgages but now for shopping. With a savings rate bumping along the bottom, it means next year won’t be all discretionary purchases. Sorry Tiffany.
And the markets deserve a little respite considering it has been one of the first negative Thanksgiving weeks in modern history. We are now 24 for 27 years up, down from 24 of 26. lol.
It continues to amaze everyone that the market is able to sustain itself at these levels considering that the entire continent of Europe is determined to fall off a cliff and have a masive “Lehman Moment”. Only the United State of Europe or a full Brady Bonding of Euro-Sovereigns will clean up the mess. But there continues to be the hope that the FED will print a couple of trillion dollars and give it to our Forefathers. That may be the only reason that there has not been a full-on liquidation of assets around the world. You know how scared investors and traders are of missing the next bullshit rally. And remember, Europe doesn’t give a shit about Thanksgiving.
There has been significant technical damage during this week-long sell-off. We have given back about half of October’s Magical Mystery Rally and the charts look shitty. But unless there is a bone-fide financial failure somewhere, we are ready for a bounce to happen. It may not stick and it may not be where you hope and expect it to be. But after this little test of the SPX 1150 area, a test of the 1200-1220 area is easy before year end.
Oil and Gold are the only safe havens in the world today. Nothing is about supply and demand yet. When “real” and “true” market forces finally set in we will have a fantastic, generational buying opportunity. We will also need the patience of Job for our payoff. Enjoy our “Market by Central Bank” for as long as you can, but PROTECT that retirement account!
Have a great long weekend and see you at Best Buy!
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wait, so it’s a bad thing if people are using cash aka money they have, rather than credit aka money they don’t have?
You’re right about a probable bounce. I think the high probability trade is that we ease off on the downside pressure into the holidays. Who knows maybe this will play out like a weird combination of last year and 2008. Summer crash and a bottom in the new year.