I don’t need to pen and Bleier-esqe “End of the World” scenario piece. I have CNBC to do it for me.
Of course it is 2008 all over again, but without the surprise and including trillions in liquidity stimulus–Bernanke style. Some you know about, some you don’t.
But don’t fret because there are no real buyers or sellers. The capital markets have been plied with unlimited liquidity, yet there is seemingly none to be had. The fear and respect that trillions from Central Bankers have bought in markets has kept most holders of assets nervous but nonetheless holding their positions. The fear of bailout, stimulus, and other surprises has brought about a curious bearish complacency hitherto unseen in times past.
The fact is that even if you forget about Europe for a second, business sucks. Just ask anyone. The Dow Jones should be at 10k, not 12k. Most market participants know this deep in their dark and angry hearts. Yet today’s option expiration is biased to the upside. And the stock market remains thinner than Kate Moss doing eightballs.
With Turkey Day coming and a very short week ahead, perhaps markets can stay above SPX 1200. But we will test 1170 in the near term yet stay in our mind-numbing trading range and the predictable holiday complacency may be hold together long enough to help you get our shopping done. But then again, maybe not.
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Qu’est-ce que c’est
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5zFsy9VIdM
Fa-fafa-faaah-fah Fa-fafa-faaah-fah….
______
AI YAI YAI YAI …
thought burnin’ down the house would be better no?
Saving Burning Down the House for when appropriate. You’ll know it before I even publish the post…
Tend to agree, Scott based on what I am seeing in those high momentum growth names since 2009.
Christmas sales will surprise to the upside. Turkey day comes early this year.
i’ll take the other side of that trade.retail sales will be all coal this year.not spending a dime for nothing. this will be a shit retail year, worse than 09. business sucks, is an understatement. thank you mr. scott
Grinch!
It’s only as high as it is because Regular Joe has been sold a bill of goods on investing in 401k’s, Roth’s and 429’s. This gives the Big Boys a base of money that is always there, a foundation so to speak. They rigged it so that regular Joe only has a dozen investment choices and he can only rebalance his portfolio after the market closes. Also, Joe is paying an egregious 1.7% “management” fee, even on a passive index fund. The Japs fell for this shit in the 80’s and lost and now Joe is…
Actually, Regular Joe bailed back in August, didn’t he?
“…thinner than Kate Moss doing eightballs” – freaking classic!
Speaking of hearing too much chatter about the Germans.
I HEARD SOMETHING ABOUT DEUTSCHE BANK “DB” who knows the real exposure here? anyone? i believe it’s going to a great short ! someones going to fail ! …any links?
MARY ANN BARTELS,OF BOA&MERRILL LYNCH
technical breakdowns in the broker/ dealer in the money center banks !
measured moves on those will take out Oct . lows..by 1st qt. sooner possible if credit markets freeze
50% chance hit 950 area give or take 15
Is_the_Stock_Market_on_the_Verge_of_Collapsin
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/technical_analysis/2011/11/15/Is_the_Stock_Market_on_the_Verge_of_Collapsing.html
Money Flows Confirms Bad Timing
A look at money flows confirms the generally bad timing of individual investors
Since July, public companies are spending about $2 billion every day to shrink the trading flow to shares on balance. Where did they get this money from? Since 2009 companies have sold about $3 trillion in bonds and about 800 billion of new shares. Companies are currently the only buyers of stocks as individuals remain net sellers.
“as individuals remain net sellers.” and we all know that individuals move the markets…
Simple Conclusion
There are three reasons why stocks could rally:
1) Seasonality
2) Flash-in-the-pan type news from Europe
3) A bullish triangle (the market torched this scenario yesterday)
As mentioned earlier, there are plenty of reasons for stocks to drop, possibly even drop like a rock.
The trick to profiting from this scenario is proper risk management. The right time to sell long positions is either when the up side target is reached (that was at 1,275) or when support is broken.
If you sell and go short right after support is broken and place a protective stop-loss just a few points above support, you limit your risk to almost zero while prying open your profit potential.
Such key support mentioned over the past six months include S&P 1,325 (July 27 – S&P dropped 16% within the next ten trading days) and for those who missed 1,325, 1,298 provided a second chance (July 29 – S&P dropped 15% within the next eight trading days).
The S&P is now just above important support again; a drop below may set off another selling chain reaction.
Feeder Cattle chart strongest out there !
real bulland any idiot can buy the dips and win!
If you have any doubts as to why these livestock markets are seemingly reaching for the clouds in pricing recent fundamental data should answer your questions. In almost every month since USDA started making 2012 meat projections, they have tightened supply. Per capita supply takes production, adjusts for changes in imports, exports, and stocks and divides by population. This is the measure of supply that meat analysts begin making price projections. The total amount of meat that the US consumer will see next year will be the lowest since 1984!.
“business sucks. Just ask anyone” and yet earnings keep growing, indeud!
We melt down between 3-4:00 today, and I say 1170 isn’t out of the question..
From FT: Euro area deflationay threat is real, ECB statute calls for price stability, Soros and Bofinger write.
Futures showing 1170.
It looks like you nailed it again Scott.
Kudos, and I’ll say it for you:
Scott told you so.