There are now just two reasons as to why the stock market should, could or would rally. Short-term, sentiment is a disaster. Many have or are moving to a majority cash position. That breeds the kind of sharp 2% hour- long rallies that we have witnessed on the news that China may buy a bond. But they don’t last.
The other is QE3 or some type of Central Bank bailout. The expectation of more free money is THE ONLY THING holding this market above the key support area and THE ONLY THING that could get any rally to stick. NOBODY wants to be caught short in front of September 21 because free money is all-powerful and will ramp the markets higher regardless of fundamentals.
But keep an eye out for a “real move” in the indices BEFORE news is officially announced. Because markets depend on government’s action, the news of what the FED will or won’t do is sure to leak. Someone in charge of a great deal of capital will know the news before we do and will take action.
The markets have become one giant inside-trading machine waiting for the next government pronouncement. When the word is leaked, everything moves up or down accordingly and in advance. Keep your eyes peeled!
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What do you mean “have become”? This would imply that it hasn’t always been insiders in the know and everyone else.
I have to say, as much as I don’t always agree with you Scott, you have been nailing it and I have learned a lot from you.
excellent. will watch for signs.
one sign that already passed.didnt someone buy a huge huge block of bac@ the 7 handle,thus trying their damnest to retain said level,someone has to know something to buy that much bac……time will tell
i think that your previous post about the 500 point selloff before the S&P downgrade will go down in the annals of “best stog blogs 2011”. I don’t doubt that a bunch of people will know something a day or two before the rest of us do respecting government resolution this time, either…
what, dare I ask, is a “stog blog”?
type-o from a cell phone. “stock blog”
With CPI data stronger around the world,I don’t see how they can do it. But, if there is a leak, where would be the first place they will go to? The Aussie or US Tech Stocks?
Or would it be in the Option Market?
Chinese copper and Indian iron ore. That’s where all the cool kids will be going.
Good..lol…they are my favs.
I printed this post then shred it, now your investigation is closed.
S.E.C. OUT
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The challenge the president faces now, says Brune in his Coming Clean blog, is to “stand up to the fossil-fuel industry and its supporters in Congress who are misleading the American public by insisting that regulation kills jobs, and that a clean energy future isn’t viable.”
The opposite is true. A recent Brookings Institute report that found the clean-energy economy employs 2.7 million American workers across a diverse group of industries — greater than the number of people employed by the entire fossil-fuel industry — and that clean tech has outperformed the national rate of job creation during the recession.
Today’s HUGE stupid rally off of Tech/Financials may be what Scott was talking about. Not making sense at all.
Nope, it appears it was the EU leak of the Fed helping them. Today, our Stronger CPI then expected shuts the door on QE3.