Option expiration. Taxes due. Retirement account contributions due. GDP estimates downgraded. Potential government shutdown. End of Quantitative Easing. Last month of POMO. Earnings season. Earnings estimate downgrades. Gold and Silver prices. Commodity prices. Gas prices. Food prices. Value of the dollar. Renewed European crisis. Worldwide radioactive contamination. Shuttering of the Japanese economy. Multiple Middle Eastern revolutions. Housing inventory. Bank balance sheet black hole. Mortgage legal mess. Technical double top. Negative divergences.
What have I forgotten?
All this means is the market will take this last bit of POMO and make a new range high, cementing the bullish extreme before a long, hot and rough & tumble summer.
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You forgot one: Glen Beck’s show was cancelled!
You missed IBD’s Accumulation Distribution Ratings
NASDAQ – E
S&P 500 – E
DJIA – E
Are you implying it can’t get much worse? *knock on wood*
You sound negative…..but then again you been negative since November…hello
Sell in May and go away……………..GS saying 14-1500 on the snp and Pimco selling bonds and heavy Cash hmmmm. Seems like a storms brewing and it might be the sh#t storm we’ve been waiting on.
: Inflation or Deflation?
If a poet knows more about a horse than he does about heaven,
he might better stick to the horse… the horse might carry him to heaven
Read more: http://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2009/11/19/hugh-hendry-investment-outlook-november-2009/#ixzz1Jj1PEZpb
Many countries that relied heavily on exports as a growth strategy are now geared up to provide goods and services to heavily indebted countries that no longer have the will or the means to buy them.
Surely, the Chinese stash of Treasuries is a prudent elimination of the fat tail risk that private sector deleveraging in the west ends up killing the golden goose of the trade surplus. But instead, in exercising good ol’ Texan tradition, they have opted, like the Hunt brothers did, to double up. It is the old dice game, Mort Subite, played by the employees of the National Bank of Belgium in the busy lunch time cafes of Brussels in 1910. If the players didn’t have time to complete their business, they played a final round with a sudden ending wa lower Chinese trade surplus will eliminate a very large source of Treasury buyers at a time of burgeoning supply. Again, we find ourselves agreeing vigorously. However, it is our contention that US savings are heading north over the months and years to come. And an America that saves is an America that does not run a current account deficit. It is an American that can finance its own spending domestically. The US produced a small surplus back in the 1990-91 recession, so why not again?
As a consequence the Chinese surplus is set to fall further and, with fewer dollars needing to be recycled to maintain the currency peg, their demand for Treasuries will continue to shrink. Now this is potentially a huge headache owing to the massive projected American budget deficits for this year and next, and the Treasury’s desire to extend the maturity of the existing stock of government bonds which is becoming perilously short dated. Some estimate new issuance of around $2.5trn for the upcoming year. Perhaps, it is better that we buy those Treasury put options after all
much is made of the comparison between today’s balance sheet recession and Japan’s demise back in 1989. Despite their bubble never coming close to matching China’s prominence in industrial commodities, the loss of Japanese economic growth in the 1990s was nevertheless a major factor in the waterfall crash in commodities. This plunge ultimately saw oil trade for as little as $10 per barrel in the next decade. Just consider how much more devastating the experience would have been had they gone very long the commodity market in 1989 rather than golf courses and Rockefeller Centre.