Very few people want to believe that the market is rolling over. They “just know” that Uncle Ben has their back.
Are folks buying because of earnings? Are they buying a great economy? A resolution to toxic real estate assets? Nope. Why else would anyone in their right mind bid for anything outside of the defensive area of the market? And the defensive areas are outperforming. Just like most recently when the lagging mega-caps led the way. You know what they say about when the laggards lead.
Shorting has been a losers game but a few brave and long suffering souls are due. After the FED tomorrow, we could get a pop through Dow 12k. That will create the first trading-oriented, oscillator-derived negative divergence since November. Though giving back yesterdays gains–even slowly–is not a happy outcome for the dippy buyers.
But never fear. Just watch the TICK and witness the beauty of the spikey buy programs that run hard when any important levels are challenged. Timing is interesting, huh?
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The timing of DOW 12,000 together with the State of the Union speech is also interesting. I am positioned short now, and very comfortable with it, BTW. There is way too much froth in this market, and it has been showing signs of breaking down over the last week. I agree that we get one last spike higher, and it could be the FED and the State of the Union speech combined that gets us that spike. The correct move will be to fade the spike however.
Looks like I was wrong, luckily I swapped out of my DXD position this morning when I saw the market was just going to keep going up. I am not going to short this market for a long time now. It looks like Fly is right. There is no stopping this market thanks to easy money by the fed. We continue to melt up for a long time to come.
The Dow transportation index and Russel 2000 are both lagging the market now as well, whereas they were widely viewed as leading indicators before. I am short biased as well, completely happy with it.
Wonder if Green shoots will get a shout out in the state of the union address.
think that this dude might say something about nat gas for the transports,with the infrastructure to build it out.and we’d wake up to the largest gap up in natty,youd have to scramble your ass off to get on that train. sure that by now something of that nature would have been leaked. other than that,this cat couldnt come up with anything really surprising.state of the union?,who the hell here dont know the state of the union.
Scott, you looking for a post fed spike & then nastola reversal?
well yea juicy.the play in the naz today, and aapl hovering.. if one is not flat right now, then yuz gots to be short……shit has been acting peculiar since aapl’s earnings call. hell goog to.
Buy buy buy until the end of July
what are you buying?
I’m buying every long ETF out there…. Told you guys about the January effect in full effect ,earnings are great,economy is coming back and the Fed has got our backs what is not to like….listen to me for free and create some real coin.
the fed is running on fumes,and the occasional shot of ether doesnt do much anymore,besides, the market is showing signs of exhaustion.
That’s what Scott said back in November and here we are in the end of January….enough said
i dont care what he said back in november,and truth be told,i’m really not impressed at dow 12k. i’ll start to really lick my chops when we hit where we left off before the globe rolled over on it self @ 14.5k. until then,i’d recommend a chiropractor for all the whipsaw, ,or whiplash you just may be encounter on the rest of the ride,even if its on the road to nowhere
The Fed has no power over the markets anymore, and the only thing they can do is kick the can down the road as long as possible.
The market has basically done nothing but go up since the announcement of QE2. The only thing the Fed can do now is QE3…QE4…QEn.
The minute they change their stance on monetary policy, the market has a flash crash and never recovers. So, they will never change their policy, and the market will continue to rise indefinitely. I think we still have a year left for the market to continue to ride higher. Eventually the dollar will become worthless and you will no longer be able to buy a commodity with a dollar. That is when the wars start, and you better grab a gun.