Think about it. Your 401k/IRA money is in and spent. April is one of the best months of the year because of it. The Wall Street Complex needs you to believe and after ten weeks of record setting and historic rallying, you DO believe.
But the firepower is shot. We are above SPX 1200. The Fed-heads have been Jawboning endlessly. Why? To make you believe. The Newsweek article? Same shit.
I am not selling my longs yet and I am fighting the desire to short. I will miss this trade because the risk of being wrong is too great in this “engineered market”.
By all means, respect the action and the trend. Trade well but don’t get married to anything for very long–if you know what’s good for you….Market’s are as lopsided as the most extreme times in modern history. Use that fact as your guide.
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I’m really second guessing my moves here.
How do you feel about cash and going on vacation?
That is why I am standing pat for now…
Agree 100%. I continue to hold my longs but stops are tight and I’m well aware that this market is pushing historical extremes. The one thing that keeps me somewhat tranquil about my longs, for the next 2 weeks, is that April is typically a good month for stocks. However, May is a different story…
You told us the end of the Fed MBS buying would cause problems for the market and it was ignored.
Will the end of 401K buying finally roll us over? maybe and maybe not but why bother looking for reasons all the time? Don’t be a Kass, one is plenty.
The fact is the market has still done nothing wrong, the leaders continue to perform.
I will be out the door when it goes but I’m not in a hurry to guess tops.
Be a Kass? I go both ways, big boy…
You’ve heard me say that I haven’t sold my longs nor instituted any shorts since my attempt a few weeks ago that were quickly closed.
I know that you have been successful in this market and congrats. But don’t be a Bull market genius. This is an odds game and after 10 up weeks and historic gains and sentiment to go along with it, the odds are getting very thin.
Kass also goes both ways, he called the bottom correctly and about 12 market tops in the last year. Lately you’ve been running around ringing bells here and on twitter scaring people out of good positions.
Of course it’s an odds game but I have stops and I respect them(some stops are very tight).
I’m only about 80% invested which is low for me. I’m also naturally hedged in most but not all positions.
The leaders will give us a warning when it’s time to go, no need to second guess it.
Today was the first day I said that “I hear bells ringing off in the distance”…
Scaring people? comeon…Are they that skittish? If so then they will be squashed like a bug when the time is right…
Remember–not everyone has the time or the access to do what you do. You are but one subset of market participant. Most investors have a slightly longer time frame.
Good on point on longer term investors
Thanks for your time and insight Scott, always appreciated
Seeing how the two of you are very observant and open-minded, I’m surprised to read this discussion of predicting tops and bottoms. Why the need for fueling the psychological fire? How about following the market?
Because trend-following sheep always get complacent and get slaughtered. Only years of experience and taking body-blows burns that into your brain.