To be bearish. Like ever. Worst trade anyone could have done over the last 300 years was sell stocks or bonds. There are times however I think its prudent to scale back. When its been too easy to make money, let them have it. I think the setup in treasuries is ripe for a large move higher over the next 2-3 weeks. I like to quantify all of my ideas. I can’t give you objective evidence of why I will be trying to buy some put gamma on pops; so I can’t play it big.

One also speculates that Tom DeMark will be on TV this week to talk about a market correction coming. We have some big sequential 13 countdowns that complete on indices, future and some of the top 5 large cap stocks on daily and weekly time frames. I don’t think he is very good on calling tops though. Nonetheless, I like his work.

I want to make an effort to write more. Unfortunately, I don’t think the content that I produce each day is good for most people nor would anybody would give a shit. I like math and evidence. Most people want to be riled up with feelings and strong views about the stock market. I don’t play that game. Don’t get me wrong — I’ve seen this work for even MIT grads who run half a billion dollar books. I just don’t understand it from what I’ve seen in my short time in markets. Because of my internal conflict on market positioning lately, I decided to write this post and vent a little bit.

Into short term targets. Probably a pop and drop this morning.

I think people don’t give enough credit to Draghi for the firepower that he has. Economic data in EU gives intensive for QE4 and a lower Euro much more than loosening in the US. Pull up a ratio of HEDJ vs SPY. Quantitative model needed a daily close over 1.1380 to shake off weakness. Price ticked it and now < 1.1196 the model is looking for 1.0879 for a major inflection point. This could take a few weeks to get down there but if it does, you’re looking at Euro/USD going to parity by mid 2016. This means EU equities should outperform US and ill be looking at cyclicals there.

Bought out of the money gamma. Bear meat is known to be riddled with all sorts of parasites so make sure you cook well.

I decided to start blogging again. I’ve done it on and off over the years under various aliases, all with fantastic results in my money management career. As soon as I start to deviate from it, it’s like not counting calories; you walk in front of the mirror one morning and think “oh..”. So, lets talk shop. It’s not a surprise that 7 years into a recovery we are starting to see signs that mid/late cycle developed markets are slowing down. However, some sectors are still looking ripe for squeezes and or tactical long positions. I’ve been discussing it with co-workers, but all else if a global disaster doesn’t happen and S&P stays above 1600 by year end, looks like 2016 will be a great trade for relative value guys. That is, long early/mid cycle EM’s + EU equities and stay core short countries with serious structural issues.

I love shorting euro on pops. You heard Druck, its going to .80. Love countries like Vietnam. I think guys who are still short short term and didnt cover are going to be skullfucked going into mid-week.

Easy sell into resistance here, picked up some size on 146-147. See previous blog posts.

Yes. The Bank Of America trading desk even put up profits consequently this quarter. GS slightly down (% wise), but overall bullish. More info here. I’m also long $X on the reversal — whom also practically missed the entire bull run.