8 Ladies and Gentlemen,
The time has come to make 2012 predictions. It is not an easy task to predict the future, I much rather try to predict the past, but I doubt readers here would be interested in that.
To succeed at predictions you just have to predict a lot of things, eventually some of them will come true, than you just hope that people will only remember the predictions which were right.
Here they are:
Seasonality trade will be restored in all sectors
‘January effect’ will be in effect
New correlations will emerge, old correlations will not be valid
North American GDPs will be flat through the year
Chinese GDP will pop to 9.6% surprising everyone
US Unemployment will be at the same level as it is right now
Euro will stabilize 2nd part of the year between 1.33-1.36 levels
More countries will joint EU, it will surprise everyone
No major banks will collapse anywhere
US regional banks index will hit new high
Gold will hit 1881 sometime in the year
Oil will hit all time high sometime in the year
Grains will hit all time high sometime in the year
Everyone will forget about the Europe and will talk about inflation
North Korea will become friendly with the West
There will be no new wars, just regional conflicts
Iran’s export of oil will get banned by EU and US, other Arabs will support this
Japan will enter recovery stage, but debt/GDP ration will still be high
TLT will not collapse or rally, it will stay relatively flat
There will be no QE3 in US and it’s a good thing
Europe will be in recession, not as bad as everyone expects
SnP will hit 1359 sometime in the year.. not sure how it will end
Some of the leveraged ETFs will get banned
M&A in PM sector will be amazing
M&A in Energy will be big as well with Asian companies buying everyone
Leading sectors in US markets in 2012 will be posted with picks later
Fly will listen to more Sinatra and classical music
Canadian $ will rise above parity and stay there
Good day,
Mr.P
PS I leave with that quote from ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’:
“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements- that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. “
8 Responses to “2012 Predictions”
10banger
Seems to me some of your predictions are linked rather closely. Meaning being correct or wrong in one prediction makes 2-3 others have the same outcome.
Regardless, you have some interesting predictions. Thx for sharing them.
Mr. Partridge
Yes, some predictions are linked… cause and effect..
Thank you.
flyaway18
If you include grains such as corn, rough rice, wheat, soybean, oats, soybean oil and soybean meal in this inflation scenario, I have seen more deflation than inflation the past couple of months. Most of them have dropped way off their recent highs, which I would think is a good thing for the consumer. It looked to me like they were in a period of deflation while the dollar went up; and yet the cost of food at the grocery store still seems high to me. Some of them have advanced the past few trading days and I am wondering if some of them have put in a bottom or if they are rising on supply-demand issues.
mahkbert
Flyaway, how about the price of Lamb Chops?
Enjoy New Years for sarah, ok? LUMUKU
flyaway18
I have also been reading about a negative divergence in the price of WTI crude and the price of gasoline. The average price of gas has stayed steay at about $3.20 a gallon while WTI crude has increased. At some point this negative divergence will be resolved. Today I took my daily walk without a coat and my December heating bill (natural gas) was the cheapest I could ever recall because it’s been so mild here in Central New York. If Europe is slowing down and you predict flat GDP in North America (I do not buy China’s GDP will surprise), I cannot see oil (unless there is a real scare of oil disruption in the Middle East) going past $105 a barrel.
Mr. Partridge
FRESH OF THE PRESS 🙂 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-01/chinese-manufacturing-index-rises-in-december-to-more-than-estimated-50-3.html
Mr. Partridge
I guess time will tell 🙂 these are just predictions, it is not like I plan to trade them haha as you know I trade one step at the time, not 365 at one 🙂
Mr. Partridge
and you know I change my mind often these days, so predictions are really just for fun and games, my picks are another story…