It’s been a while since I’ve blogged.. been busy doing things that matter..
But it’s time for me to write something, something about one of my favourite subjects – PM stocks.
Just a few short weeks ago my trading portfolio was rocking high, doing so well that I was thinking this is it – I can reach my yearly goal.
BUT, for whatever reason I have decided that it’s time to abandon my beautiful DUST and jump into gold and silver miner ETF…
what a mistake it was – I’ll tell you…
I have no rules in my trading portfolio – I can long or short whatever I want with complete disregard to risk managemnt… yep,
that is why I call it ‘crazy port’ … so i was 42% YTD and as it stands now I am up 18…
when something like that happens (it did happen before) – I sell it all and take a break and think and so I did.
Stupid thing about this trade is: when gold was 1630 I sent email to my partner saying that PM is short full force and my target for gold is 990.
Here is my opinion (remember this is just an opinion) and please ignore it if you like.
IT’S OVER FOR GOLD STOCKS FOR MANY YEARS TO COME.
Here are my picks (FD: holding most for few years now in my investment port):
Banks: BAC JPM C and XLF and KRE
Pipelines: TRP ENB MLPL
Telecoms: TU RCI BCE
SIN: BGK DEO
Retail: WMT TGT HD LOW
Pharmaceuticals: TEVA NVO PPH
Broad market ETFs: VDC VTI VHT
and many more , too many to talk about
Inverse: DUST (no position currently)
This was a great week for PM traders like me , after all everything went exactly as I expected
and even few of my faithful followers nailed it big, but – I need a little rest now.
I have closed my DUST position and have covered my NUGT short.
My other PM miners short trades have been twitted in real time and I know some of you scored, congrats.
What lies ahead of us? I believe more of the same, but we need to bounce a bit here.
After all every bear market has to have an oversold bounce, so Dr is probably right – may be next week.
I will not bet on it though – as you know I believe in riding trends and trend is down,
as soon as I see otherwise I will tell you.
PS: MY GP target is so low that I am afraid if I post it here some of you might have a coronary, so not today kidos.
Sometime this afternoon I was actually thinking that dip buyers may step up..
and they did, but their attempts were fruitless.
I never really buy the dip in any serious fashion, unless I bottom fish
(as example I almost bought LULU today, but it didn’t hit my buy target).
I do day-trade dips though (when I have a time).
Today was bears win, but does it mean we have a trend reversal?
Pick of the day (for mature investor): SAM (I have a blog about it a couple of years back here).
This is a multi-year hold for me and tribute to my trading partner who is from Boston
So these stupid fucks did it again.
Yep, the Euro-trash screwed the Cyprus bail-out… bank depositors have to pay
for the sins of the banks they hold their accounts in.
Are you kidding me? Who would come up with something like that?
Financials ministers of European union, that’s who.
LMAO – so what do you think will happen now if they don’t retract?
Many wonderful things, but let’s not guess here let’s just watch,
they still have a few hours before bear comes out of the cage.
By the way in case you are not aware Cypriots are poor shmacks,
so their money are not in these banks… whose money than?
Let me say (as an example) – the guy who controls most of the natural gas energy supply of the whole
Western and Eastern Europe could be one of the banks’ customer lol
now imagine being this person and suddenly realizing over the weekend you are 10% poorer and
the rest of your money are not safe… and the people who did this to you are bunch of
the Sorbonne educated financial pigs… somebody is getting really pissed as we speak…
In other news I am long RUSS, EPV and EDZ.
Happy trading kids,
Fireworks everywhere, investors and traders alike going bananas and celebrating giant wins everywhere.
The times are good. The times are better than good.
This bull market has that has been going for 4 years now has become absolutely spectacular.
I did what Partridge would do – I have stay long all the way and was reminding you all the way up to now what market it is and I have stayed by my word. I have put a lot of my own money where my mouth is.
But the time has come to say ‘good bye’…
Today, on the 10th day of consecutive bull, on the day when people are jumping happily about US banking sector recovery AH I have decided to say – IT IS OVER.
The bull market is done, it has ended.
I am still extensively long in my investment port, simply because I always am, but my beta is low and I own quality.
My trading port on another hand is under “market neutral” blanket as of the end of the trading day today.
What does it mean? It means my long position is of the same size as my short position…. and my short position is about to get bigger as my cash is at 73%.
So I am breaking bad my dear traders – I am going full blown Walter White on you.
Why and where the fucking picks? Where the charts? Where is the proof of my bias?
FUCK that shit; I don’t need it, because
I AM THE ONE WHO KNOCKS!
Happy trading, boys and girls.
So this is it – Gold is going down in a hurry.
Precious metal miners have been correcting for a while now sort of front running the show.
I have been approached by many to comment as they know I have been playing with shiny stuff most of my trading life, they also know that one of my 2 best trades in 2012 was DUST – leveraged gold miners short ETF.
DUST has played a very important role in my YTD performance as well, but I am in process of scaling out of it, selling some of it today already. Please note that you can see some of my trades in real time on twitter, this includes DUST.
What most of my readers don’t realise that I have never been short of gold or gold stocks prior to 2012.
Yep I have been bullish the yellow metals and miners for many year, way before gold bull market started.
I believe this gives me a little edge to comment here.
I am a student of a bull market. What does it mean? It means I ultimately believe in higher stock prices overtime. This includes most of the sectors. Oops, did I just said ’most’, not all.. yes, I did.
One sector it does not include (for the next 100 years or so) is natural gas (please not this is my opinion currently; I reserve the right to change it 100 years from now). Why? Simple market metrics – supply and demand, I will not go into details here.
Another sector (as of 2012) is gold mining. I believe major correction has begun in 2012 and will continue. For how long? I have no clue. Please note that bear market in PMs you are witnessing will include massive oversold rally which can be traded.
So what is the problem here, after all bull markets and bear markets in some sectors are common and they come and go. The problem is TRADERS PSYCHOLOGY. Most of the people who hold PM stocks currently (if am talking retail) have never experienced bear markets in PMs before and have no clue how bad can it be and they will do what retail does the best – AVERAGE DOWN.
This makes me sad and worried for many of you.
Please stay safe and wait for reversal whenever it comes and confirms itself – if you try to catch a knife in PMs you will not lose a finger, but an arm and a leg and a head eventually… I have seen it many times before.
I am saying good bye to the best month of the year for trading (at least for me). This was great January, the best in my book, anyway. Everything went as planned, but it could have been better, after all it is always can be better. Is it really? I think it’s just greed talking, you make what you make and don’t look back on your gains.
I am high cash again (in trading portfolio) and for the first time in many months I am trading long PMs. I am doing it for SWING TRADE ONLY and do not have any intention to hold it long term. PM mining still sucks as a business and I don’t see it changing any time soon.
Picks of the day are: MVG NG AG NGD NUGT SIL.. watching JAG (pure lotto play – day-trade only).
You can lose money trading these, a lot of money – never buy stocks just because somebody posts about them, trading is very personal business, do your homework.
1. Great depression is coming back
2. market will crashing for years to come
3. every rally should be shorted
4. buy and hold is dead
5. equities are the worst investments
6. will be run on banks
7. unemployment will be high off the charts
8. bankruptcies will be high off the charts
9. there will be civil unrest
10. this is THE END
I told them (in the voice of the sir Fly): FUCK OFF and I bought stock.
Happy trading all and remember – noise is always there, it’s up to you if you listen to it.
There is a full blown bull market in platinum names nobody talks about..
ETF : PLTM
overlay 3 month chart over GDX … nothing short of spectacular
Full disclosure: I own physical platinum
Hey kids – no charts, no fundamentals, no algorithms and no stops lol:
UUU on TSX (bought out by Russians today) sold
Second week of 2013 has been good to me, first takeover. I was lucky enough last year to have 5 takeovers in my portfolio, which is personal yearly record for me.
Shout out to my trading partner for nailing that SHLD to the wall.
These stocks are high beta and if you buy any of them because of this post, aliens will kidnap you and use for their sexual experiments.