I thought it might be helpful to quickly post a weekly chart of $USD and give a quick explanation as to where I’m at.
Keep in mind that I am a fundamental trader at the root of it all – and that “weekly” charts don’t always provide the fast action “tradeable signals” I know we all love. In the chart below the horizontal resistance line certainly cannot be denied, and what I see as being of larger importance – the “low” made only a few days ago.
This “low” breaks lower than the low back in May, and in turn suggests a change of trend – as the series of higher highs and higher lows is now broken. These last few days of upward action “should” create a lower high than the previous high (around 84.50 ish) as the sequence of zigs n zags now suggests a change in trend. USD is pushing right up to strong overhead resistance at the horizontal line.
I think you’ll need to click the chart in order to see it larger.
From a technical standpoint I feel it can’t be long before we see USD turn and head lower. From a fundamental point of view – it’s a given no?
We’ve seen U.S equities climb higher the past few days “along side” USD so……it remains to be seen if the proposed turn in USD also suggests lower stock prices – but you already know where I stand.
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Hey Kong thanks for the post. My USDCAD position is profitable and the cross looks to have broken its very short term top. My concern is the Canadian GDP number comes out Friday and will probably stink. I will likely just trail a stop but I’m wondering if you get terribly concerned w GDP numbers as the data is generally known. Thoughts?
What i love about ‘The Market’ is the different view points and positions taken by the participants. My general stance is for a strong dollar and i see things slightly differently. But Kongs got his bananas in a row and been right so many times I always take note. Appreciate it.
Jskogs – yes USD/CAD rolling over and looking good so far….and yes I watch for GDP reports for sure…but these days am still looking at larger picture of “risk on vs risk off” as having an “overall” greater influence than a single given countries data.
Sup!
You’ve got it 100% – there is always two ways of looking at everything, and that is indeed what makes a market!
Me……I’m always happy when people make money – no matter which side of the fence they are on.
Time frame is always a factor too – as depending on where you enter and exit…and “when” you enter or exit – it’s just as likely ( and very common) that we’ve both done alright.
I’m all for that!
Related to USD, I picked a gold contract today for a hair above 1200.
For what it’s worth, the correlation’s of Gold and USD have been out the window for months.
USD up, USD down….no matter – gold down, down , then down some more.
Looking at levels….I’d be more than happy to start “pecking” at gold at these levels – but……with “zero” expectations of a “trade”.
A nice area to start building longer term ( if that’s yer thing )…
Ya for sure. There is no question that the correlation is out for now but that can also be a good entry point as it can be a sign that the market has it wrong for a short moment in time. Kind of a contrarian indicator. I can’t really trade gold due to its boring nature so I will hold and roll my contracts for a bit. I think 1200 is a decent starting point.
Today’s action on GLD suggests some capitulation and also some buying into that weakness. Perhaps some bottoming signs. A little early to tell but worth bite in my opinion.