I patiently trade the fundamentals - with a technical machete.
Joined Apr 1, 2013
69 Blog Posts

Trading Currency ETFs – A Viable Option

I’ve come to learn that a large majority of you don’t actually “trade” foreign exchange, but do have considerable interest in the subject. We’ve seen here over the past several weeks how tracking correlations in currency markets can be of significant benefit to your equities trading as well.

I’ll plan to start adding the currency ETF’s in more of my analysis and commentary with hopes that perhaps a few of you can still take advantage of in the information provided here – without having set up and actual forex account.

Interestingly – many of the currency ETF’s appear to have unique characteristics of their own , and don’t track ” exactly” as I would normally be used to seeing within my straight up currency trading platform – but  we can easily work around that.

For today, I would encourage having a quick look at both “FXC” as well “FXA” being the etf’s for the Canadian Dollar as well the Australian Dollar, looking for reasonable signs of bottoming.

Trading currency etf’s can be a viable option.

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Xoloitzcuintli – Wisdom From Down South

Obviously you have no idea what this is. You can’t even pronounce it.

Any knowledge of the above aforementioned would require “some” awareness of actualy “things” outside your immediate 300 km square radius ( no scratch that…..3000 sq km radius) as the entire planet sits out “here”- staring in at the tiny microcosm you call your life. Tiny is an understatement. Sad.

It’s a dog moron.

With over 3000 years history in Mexico, unimpeeded by the genetic tamperings of those “smart guys”  in the North –  the Xoloitzcuintli is truly an ancient animal.

Interesting isn’t it? – You just learned something you’ve never in your entire life even considered thinking about… …let alone understood. Funny how that works isn’t it?

I believe its all about “keeping an open mind” no?

We all “think” we’re the best at something – until of course  – we learn something from someone else……then…….thank god……things get exciting again.

I find that  “learning to do something” –  beats the shit out of  “actually doing it” eight ways to Sunday.

Brilliant people get bored fast.

Note Ibank logo on dog.



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Forex Gambling – Roll The Dice on $USD and JPY

This stuff is like watching paint dry intraday…and in alot of ways that’s great.

No need to sit there glued to a computer screen all day long, and no “big concerns” on a a spike here or there (depending on the local news).

I’ve got about 12 setups all involving our favorite “safe havens” the good ol USD and of course our ol favorite JPY.

Signals have been made, and in turn confirmed here this morning so – here’s the strategy – this time around.

When you’re fighting tooth and nail against forces so much larger than yourself ( an entire planet fighting the fundamentals with everything they’ve got) this gets increasingly more difficult. Position sizes come down…..stops ( if not attached to plutonium anvils or puppy filled balloons ) are widened further, and expectations are lowered.

This is “disciplined trading” as when the road ahead is “crystal clear” one equally recognizes it’s time to step on the gas.

I’m placing tiny order 25 pips above / below pairs of interest – with the thought in mind of catching momentum “IF” momentum comes my way. The risk is limited as if price moves the other way….I don’t get picked up. Price comes my way ( and if it does….it will do so by more than 25 pips) boom I’m in the trade.

That’s it.



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China GDP Statistics – Growth Slowing, Swans Swimming

If you’ve got money in the markets I can only suggest you set your alarm clocks an hour or two early tomorrow morning.

China’s GDP numbers are out Sunday night – and you can bank on the fact that markets are going to move. The set up has all the necessary components to blow heads off those caught sleeping in, as the data coming out of China “IS” essentially what the market is waiting on. It’s suggested that the numbers don’t look good.

Even if China’s GDP statistics come in ” as analyst believe” I still see it as a disapointment (as seen through the recent moves in AUD – The Australian Dollar, with risk related currencies still having one hell of a time getting off their asses considering stocks have pushed on. A “big” disapointement will affirm that “risk has been sneaking out the back door” for months now, and could even get a couple of those “black swans” up  – and out  on the water early.

China’s business cycle is ( as any normal business cycle does ) entering a period of slower growth ( not some kind of catastrophe – considering evn 6.7% is freakin major) but the unfortunate timing of this, coupled with likely poor earning reports in U.S for second quarter “should” make for some fireworks to say the least.

I have already signaled short $SPX Thursday afternoon, as well would look to instigate “Long JPY” trades on a seconds notice here on Sunday night….as this could serve to make for some very serious action in Forex Markets.

ETF wise….watch $FXA, as well take a look at “EWJ” short –  for an economical play on “risk aversion” and JPY strength.


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Rambutan – Food For Forex Profits

Have you ever seen these lil beauties in your local American grocery store? Have you ever considered picking up a bunch and trying them?

I assume not as this would require an open mind, the ability to step outside of ones comfort zone, as well as an appreciation for things “outside of America”.

Not happening then eh? I thought not.

In any case “Rambutan” are a seasonal fruit here on the Yucatan ( yes the Yucatan Peninsula  – so far from the border and all that “American gangsta T.V type border war crap” that even the local Maya here joke about that shit being “so American!”) and are only available for a short period of time in these warm summer months.

Local farmers bring in their “stash” of Rambutan on small carts, set up shop near local grocery stores/tienda’s and offer up this rare treat for a limited time only. They are absolutely delicious, and are much like a large grape in their consistancy.

I’ve now been reviewing my trade performance over the past 3 years and sure enough – come Rambutan season…Kong kills it time and time again.

I am completely convinced that “other than” the alien transmissions I receive via my aluminum space helmut ( fashioned out of local “Modelo” beer cans) the sole reason behind these incredible spikes in account balance – Rambutan.

Truly the food for forex profit.

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Yen Strength Showing – Don’t Tell Bulls

Aside from my short term tech firing on $SPX ( with short entry any time here today ) I’m now seeing considerable underlaying strength in JPY.

We all know what that suggests.

When the Yen starts taking inflows , and pairs such as AUD/JPY as well NZD/JPY start showing weakness ( as they most certainly are today! ) I get pretty damn excited about some serious action to follow.

JPY pairs are fast n furious, and capable of producing some really big moves, really , really fast.

This already being Thursday – I’m usually not so inclined to enter any “larger postions” going into the weekend, but will be watching JPY strength closely as “once again” my short term tech would project “entry long JPY” for Monday morning, if not sooner.

In combination  – I’m alreadylooking short $SPX and now see considerable strength in the “age ol safe haven” of the Japanese Yen so……..

Yen Strength Showing, but don’t tell the bulls.

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Bienvenido Al Reino Kong

No tengo mucho que decir esta noche. Sólo que con paciencia y determinación casi cualquier cosa es posible.

Sólo tienes que seguir tu corazón y hacer lo que cree que es correcto.

Su nunca va a ser fácil, pero usted puede hacerlo, si usted acaba de poner su mente a ella.


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$SPX Short Term Tech – Triggered

For what it’s worth people – I continue to line up my forex analysis and short term technical systems, with U.S equities movement. Last time was pretty much bang on the money, and obviously this doesn’t happen every day so…….with an open mind, and blah blah blah – let’s have a look at general USD strength/ weakness over the next 24hours as well JPY, Commods and U.S Stocks.

I’d be looking to enter short (via SPY) tomorrow evening at 12:17  a.m – oh……he he…..can’t do that so –  Thursday morning then.

We can all go on and on about USD ( my feelings haven’t changed a bit ) as well U.S earnings season kicking off etc – but frankly in this case – I don’t really give a rats ass.

Let’s see if the short term technical system ( originally designed / created for Forex markets ) can again give us a decent signal in equities.



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Euro Trading – The Rookie Mistake

The massive upward move seen in USD here overnight, and now this morning has put a reasonable dent in some of my medium term trade plans not to mention my ego.

Surprisingly a couple of trades entered days ago are “only now” a couple hairs underwater – and for the most part are of little concern. Both AUD as well NZD are still basing and are at more or less the same levels as back on June 28th, and USD /CAD has only popped an additional 40 pips

I don’t trade EUR /USD.

One of the biggest “rookie mistakes” I can point out – is that of looking to evaluate “dollar strength or weakness” as it pertains to only EUR/USD. This currency pair  will flip and flop out of “default” as being the two most widely held currencies on the planet, and serves very little purpose in evaluating risk appetite or aversion.

I’ll get hammered here today by newbies suggesting I “go buy those habaneros” and get working on the video this weekend….but wait – I’ll bet you’re looking at EUR/USD and think you  know a thing or two about forex.

Otherwise – I will give this a day or two to play out – as the move “is” still quite surprising to me. USD made a “lower low” back in mid June, and has now rallied the entire way back ( on daily charts ) to create a new “higher high”! In all my years of trading I can honestly say I’ve never seen a “wash out” like that – on this relatively large a time scale.

I am suspect of the move – but that’s my nature anyway.

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Risk On – Like A Lead Balloon

It’s kind of funny when I make suggestion that $USD is headed lower ( and that risk should follow ) – within 24 hours full scale global panic sets in – risk jumps ship and the sky starts raining lead balloons.

This stuff doesn’t exist in a vacuum.

Personally I am extremely sceptical of anything seen or heard in the U.S media, as I have long since converted to following the spanish / mexican “version” of world events – so just as likely things are overblown and / or exagerated – if not 100% bullshit. Big woop.

Fact is….this stuff all lines up perfectly when viewing forex markets. You can virtually “tell” the news will be bad within a matter of hours – no matter what the “media spin” on it is.

I pretty much bank on it these days – as the entire thing  is just one big orchestration.

I continue to hold and build with considerable “bearish bias”.





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