iBankCoin
I patiently trade the fundamentals - with a technical machete.
Joined Apr 1, 2013
69 Blog Posts

Clarity After The Smoke Clears

The smoke hasn’t cleared. There is no clarity so…….grab a breath of “reasonably fresh air” if you can – and prepare to wait this out a little longer.

Correlations did indeed make a “twist” in yesterday’s action as USD popped (as expected) – with equities moving decidedly lower….and gold – poor, poor gold more or less melted away.  I assume that now is the time ( all be it like….at least a week too late) where hopeful bulls may finally be putting down the rose colored glasses a second or two (and seriously taking a look at their screens) and as well hungry bears – excited and over zealous are jumping into positions a touch “too confident”.

Currency wise – risk related countries continue to get absolutely pounded with really no end in sight confirming (and further signaling) that the big money ( and Kong ) have been more or less “short risk” for a considerable time now – while the circus in U.S equities continues to play out.

I need to watch USD here ( as it is still the world’s reserve currency – and the most widely held ) to see it max out here in coming days – and continue it’s downward slide for what I expect to be the “larger leg” in it’s near term demise.

It remains to be seen weather or not USD and U.S equities will regain the previous correlation (both moving in the same direction) as I expect they will – as all things U.S are likely sold.

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7 comments

  1. Global selloff invariably leads to a fight to quality (or at least liquidity). The US market is still the largest and most liquid market in the world, so where else are trillions upon trillions of dollars to hide if not the world reserve currency?

    If things start to get back to “normal” and capital isn’t flying around so fast then I would certainly buy a decline,,,

    If globally volatility continues to rise though, then the dollar is the place to be.

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  2. Yo lol.

    I assume you’ve read back a couple posts, as I have every intension of buying USD come mid / late September….when things really start to get ugly – and the “global fear” trade has massive flows into USD of course.

    For now…..and for kicks….watch for USD to make another leg lower.

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  3. okay, yes. Thanks for clarifying.

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  4. Hey Kong –
    Good to hear you’re banking some coin short risk. Which pairs did you go after? Also, where do you see USD “maxing out”? I made it out ok in the US equity world with a little TZA help.

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  5. I generally trade the safe haven’s against the commodity related currencies, but have been focused even more so as of late on anything and everything vs JPY specifically.

    Forex wise…..months can pass with little tradeable trend in one pair or another so….I like to strike hard when the iron is hot.

    I’ve been long JPY then short JPY against every thing on the planet over the past few months….as it’s been the big mover.

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  6. When you say dollar lower means vs. Euro right ? Thanks Kong.

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  7. Are you expecting crash like Asian currency crash before ?

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