Hey I’m only calling it like I see it – but when you’ve got a day / night of supposed “bounce / recovery” and two of the higher risk/yielding currencies the Aussie and the Kiwi are weaker than both the Japanese Yen ( with a literal army fighting to weaken it) as well the U.S Dollar ( with it’s 85 billion per month devaluation currently in full swing as well ) – You my friend have got yourself a problem.
If indeed markets are poised waiting for Uncle Ben to “wave the ship in” – someone has totally forgot to tell the two currencies who generally lead the charge – when there is strong appetite for risk.
I’ve completely cleared the decks for a point – and short of sitting here patiently until “after” Wednesday’s possible “bombshell” ( that’s what AUD and NZD suggest) I have absolutely zero interest in chasing / playing this lil bounce at all.
I’ve seen alot of stormy seas, and just about as many times as I can count – the good ol Aussie and his friend the Kiwi have been right up front plowing ahead – pushing on in search for better waters.
As it stands, I’ve stayed up with both of them all night while they’ve both been puking their guts out, and if they’ve got some silly idea of just “playing sick” a day er two longer – they’d better get their asses of my boat!
I’m out.
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Bear flags or bases for the AUD/JPY NZD/JPY – That is the question.
Ya Kong perhaps some tapering is coming. I cut my AUDUSD long. I have a USDJPY long that is in good shape and performing. I would assume it would get a 1 or 2 day boost from any tapering rhetoric. You think? I would assume the spx rally is just from short covering before the Fed speak comes.
So you meant risk off = sell off coming? Thanks Kong.
I’m scalping in here a bit..as I’d like to get a couple positions on (as I keep saying ) for a couple days bounce – as I’m watching USD more so here.
It’s at some serious levels of support as well waaaay late in a usual “cyclical” count – that I see having a couple days relief before the next leg down.
Its tedious here for me as this would also correlate to a nice bounce in AUD/JPY as well NZD/JPY as they move fast and hard…..but here we sit grinding sideways.
Personally – I do try to extract cash from the markets as regularily as possible, but obviously see things trading flat as to tomorrow being a catalyst.
Blood from a stone until tomorrow is outta the way.
As much as I sound like a broken record ( things in forex land don’t turn on a dime ) I am expecting a considerable sell-off in risk – but only “after” I see USD make the dead bounce.
We’ve all seen USD trading in tandem with U.S equities more or less…and perhaps this correlation will change at this junction – but until I see different….
risk off = SP down = USD down = JPY up.
I got it ! Thanks Kong as always.
Regardless of short term squiggles in AUD/JPY for example, there is absolutely no question in my mind that at “what ever level” ( if indeed we get a resonable bounce – me…I’d like 96.897 to get specific) It’s still well on the other side of the mountain now.
Factoring in coming fundamentals (further AUD rate cuts and global growth estimates cut )I see very little possibility of “higher highs and an actual continuation of trend”.