This has been a complete and total pain in the ass…..as I’ve been working this trade / positioning / adding for literally weeks…and it’s been more or less an uphill battle.
We are here….sort of.
I am all over the place short USD ( as you all know) and began my long JPY trades yesterday morning ( as per tweet )
I expect to be in these trades FOR A LONG TIME.
It’s off to the ruins in Tulum and out swimming with the sea turtles in Akumal – for days!
Ask me about it – USD etc….. I’m thinkin September.
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Whats your top setup at the moment? I got squeezed out of a short USDCAD. My monkey was trading. Bad monkey.
Love the long JPY play.
Thanks Chess.
JPY looks like a given here……but no short USD?
Interestingly – Im not trading USD/JPY!
Generally like the commods vs safe havens for larger moves.
Go go go …
Forex Kong…Did you see my article over the weekend in Blogger Network? I am on the other side of the trade calling for the start of a 9 year cycle for the USD.
I am 100% all in for the start of a new super cycle USD – looking Sept or later!
You will see me equally bullish USD ( although likely different reasons as I imagine it will be “fear” inflows” as per usual USD action – when aliens do indeed surface from their underground dwellings,liquidate their holdings in McDonalds/Wallmart etc and head for China ) when we get a yearly low here in coming weeks / months.
Agree on your timeframe–Summer weakness in Dollar which I will look to be bought in the fall.
We will see. IMHO I think German Court ruling will go against Draghi’s ECB.
The thing is…fundamentals in EU or perhaps GB or Canada or Sweden, even Aud etc – really don’t play into larger macro currency movements during times of “risk on vs risk off”.
If “macro” flows are moving towards “risk off” lets say….a “dog” like JPY shoot for the moon on “save haven” status ( with the fundamentals as such ) while strong currencies and countries (Canada?) get wacked.
Go figure for the newbie right?
I don’t see that much out of either EU zone or GB will have much impact on “much” – if indeed “risk sells off”.
In fact… (again go figure) – I’m looking to get long both against both USD and JPY.
Forex Kong, You know as we have discussed over at your blog, our styles are so different. I sit excided over waiting for econ data around the world and watch global politics, bond markets, equities, f/x pairs like a Geek at a Star Trek Convention… be careful over going long against the USD…we have the German Ct going after Draghi and OMG, stupid levels for Italian/Spain Debt…it is going to get so ugly.
I’ve been waiting for this. Short USDJPY on the retrace of the weekly bearish outsde bar, will add to it on a break of that pattern. Also long EURUSD at the moment. I may not be here for a long time, just a good time.
I think where we might get our lines crossed is on time frame – which is completely normal.
In reading your comments I agree 100% as yes indeed EU debt levels sneaking up etc. As well I watch everything on the planet and agree that things will most certainly be getting ugly moving forward….in fact I’ve been suggesting / leaning that way for a long time now.
Have you not seen lately that USD falls along side Nikkei, and that the “current correlation” of risk on / off – has USD being “sold”? – not bought in fear?
Interestingly we’ve now got a “swing high” on the weekly USD chart.
Good luck with your trading.
It’s choppy out there on the turns man – wow.
Stay sharp – good luck.
I will be watching USD/JPY closely as it’s gonna be a very good buy opportunity “after” it’s pullback. I’m excited to see how far it can drop ( it’s stubborn for a reason ) and will look to buy and hold.
Right now my USDJPY buys are in @ 80.50 and 82.50. It may be a long long time before they get filled, but i’m patient when it comes to getting my orders filled. 🙂
Wow….that’s what I call waiting for a long time!
Im curious FX – what type of macro / global situation would you envision inorder for USD/JPY to retrace absolutely 100% to 80.00 area?
I see 95.00 as “load the boat / blessing area” so …….curious what you’re considering.
Audusd mind the hammer. Took a long position.
Forex Kong, Yes I am not swing or intraday..but long picture, very long picture. Today was end of the month stuff which in my last Friday night article at Blogger Network, I indicated that I had to deal with. Right now the Risk On/Off playbook is gone imho, Aussie is being sold non stop since Drunkmiller made the call. BTW, if you watch everything…why don’ t you talk about it? There is so much cool stuff happening, Like what was your take or what did you hear about that drop of the Italian 10 year last night, I was totally like WTF…it wasn’t the auction cuz I was up for that..I am going to ask around to other forex pros tonight that were up after I went to sleep.
A pro trader that has been doing it for 30 years is sort of stumped too, well actually he wrote “Morning Susanne to be honest i’m a bit bemused by the behaviour of the bond markets at the moment, and i don’t think i’m alone.” …
To be honest Trade_Nymph – the endless debate of each and every news item (and it’s subsequent effect on an individual currency or market) on a daily basis is extremely tedious, and really not my cup of tea. We could go on and on for hours on end with respect to “did this effect that?” or “if this then that!” There are plenty of “forex news” sites out there for that.
What I do find important is the ability to “filter the news” and find those stories/headlines that “do” play a role in framing good trade decisions.
If asked about the Italian 10 year activity over a single night – and it’s cause/effect………I don’t see it as having much of an impact vs the current stories that “are” moving markets.
I’ve dumped several trades at break even and then taken profits on a couple others as commods continue to get smashed.
the only real action out there is still JPY as nearly everything else is a real grind.
Considering the weakness in USD coupled with even LARGER WEAKNESS in the commods – it is actually quite concerning …..if/when AUD finds a bottom?
ForexKong…I know, I am junkie for all of those F/X sites and they are the ones that have been my Teacher in F/X (in 2009 I didn’t even know what a Loonie was, lol). IMHO that Italian Bond Question is our upcoming Swan, German Court meets on June 11 to talk about whether Draghi can really buy up bonds, they may modify it and give it a pass, but Italian (S. Europe, etc) having such low yields at this point is crazy, well beyond crazy….all theories that funds are using to invest in them are being proven wrong….For the Aussie, When Copper drops under 2, as you said before, trends can take a long time, Aussie bottoms.
Brilliant minds think alike!
I penned this early March.
http://forexkong.com/2013/03/04/eu-zone-catalyst-usd-saves-face/
Which take me back to the point that made me comment on the article in the first place…why are you long dollar (not until Sept)?
Are you asking my why I “might” consider getting long USD in September?
Tomorrow is June 1st so…….hmmm…..pretty sure alot can happen between now and then no?
Fortune telling isn’t my thing either.
Why not USD long now?
Again……tracking “everything” is great….but learning how to “use” this information is “even greater”.
Japan’s massive liquidity pump had spilled into U.S equities ( obviously ) and in turn required massive funds to be converted to USD – hence the most current correlation of USD UP and US Equities UP – you see?
So…..USD moving up ( on foreign hot money conversion) with phony pump job in U.S Equities.
Then…..markets consider that Japan “might have this wrong” – as bond selling suggests – and we see the opposite.
Japan steals the show here “currently” people – as U.S data / plight is a forgone conclusion.
After this runs it’s course – the move in USD ( come Sept ish!?) will be the age ol classic correlation of FEAR trade….as equities roll for good – and the usual correlation of USD UP = Equities DOWN comes back in fashion.
Damn…..I did some fortune telling…..who’ll tune in to read me now?
How’s this one on bonds?
http://forexkong.com/2013/04/20/intermarket-analysis-questions-answered/
“Im curious FX – what type of macro / global situation would you envision inorder for USD/JPY to retrace absolutely 100% to 80.00 area?”
I have a very different view of QE than most. QE in my opinion isn’t what most people believe it to be. It’s a matter of the market catching up to my viewpoint, if that makes sense. jake Gint will attest to my wacy monetarist views, lol
My 80 area call is one of order flow more than macro/global though.
PS
My EURUSD long and USDJPY short worked out well. EURUSD had a nice breakout and well, USDJPY was a little choppy but i left the table with $ in my pocket. 🙂
Some real funny biz on the close Friday – I’m more than curious to see if these trades continue here this week.
I too am long JPY and short USD in several pairs.