To the point.
In light of yesterday’ s ( and last nights ) move in USD – and it’s “inability” to breach significant levels of resistance (coming withing “00.01” and potentially creating some serious new math considerations for Kong) – I plan to “get serious” about allocating funds – short, short , short. Loading my boat with loonies, kiwi’s, and any number of other fancy things while burning “hay bails of dollars” – at weenie roasts on a number of secluded beaches along the way.
After U.S data release – we’ll see if orders get picked up across the board.
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Its’ the wild west out there.
Absolutely. This is about as tricky as I’ve ever seen it – with so much at stake.
USD rejection here gives me something to go on…but for those trading equities – wow.
I’m still of the mindset that we see both USD as well as U.S equities trade down together.
Nice timing so far on short dollar.
I’ve been scoping out a possible alternative to my thesis of the head and shoulders in the euro.
http://ibankcoin.com/hattery/2013/05/16/alternate-consideration-for-the-euro/
I certainly could see at least a rally attempt for a swing in the euro. Really thought we would break down harder yesterday.
Hey thanks. I trade / conceptualize on very long term charts and fundamentals – then dig in with my shorter term tech, primarily trading straight price action more than anything else.
On this call (looking at the fundamental drivers for a lower USD – obviously….Ben’s printing press)coupled with its rise to a very solid area of long term resistance – I was expecting a turn, and in this case one of considerable significance in that – USD rejection here sets the stage for considerable downside action….like taking out the lows of late April / early May type thing.
Short of getting whipped here for another day or two (which is also likely when trading such long term time frames) I’m lookin for a large move down through until early July.
Audjpy and nzdjpy shorts on fire. Fuggin rights!
Aud and Nzd just got pounded across the board….unreal.
Complete and total commodity blow out.
Kong, have you considered the possibilty of an entire new rigged game? Dollar goes sky high commodities crash and the spy never goes down? The yen money supply doubling supposedly could change the rules no? Appreciate the currency blog. Looking at all the blown correlations since nov 12(japs goin full rigged) has me confused.
Yes it suuuuure is looking that way as of this moment – commods get smoked and new money moving in search for yield gets converted to USD before purchase of stocks. Boom…USD up…..stocks up.
Ive expected the two to move lower together, and expected the turn right around these levels so…….we are most certainly out there on a ledge.
Market is moving up with $US, it appears we have established new correlation 🙂
The two have been trading ( more or less )both up and down in tandem for quite some time now…
What makes this extremely interesting is the current “fight” here at major long term resistance in USD. We are literally 00.01 away from opening a very large can of worms with respect to the “inflation vs deflation” debate – moving forward.
The question begs to be asked – If USD breaks the current and long term trend of “lower highs” – each squashed by Ben and the printing presses – is it suggestive of longer term view of stronger USD ( and even weaker commoditiy prices ) or “inflation” – a lower USD – and the price of “stuff” going up!
Which camp are you in?
I think it depends on time frames and the severity of risk aversion. Long term the USD is doomed. At the current 5 yr avg growth rate of 14 something percent I calculated a couple weeks back, US debt will double every 5 yrs. Income growth is shite, therefore tax rev is shite, cap gains taxes should be good all things considered but probably can’t carry a nation, unemployment is high and probably won’t get that low before the next downturn…..anyway most of you know the drill. There will be periods of higher highs in the USD but overall it is fucked plain and simple
Most of this kind of analysis is a mental beat off session but the overall outlook for the USD and the US is freaking rough when you look 6-10 yrs out.