A funny perspective on language

Outside my door it is foggy and the threat of thunder storms and hail is approaching.

Some would say this is what the market is forecasting as investors gear up for earnings season. [[AA]] said their profits fell 24% and that input costs would blow for future quarterly results. The street feels their guidance may be high, but for now they will trade it up since they beat lowered guidance.

Use AA as a guide today. If it shoots higher and then reverses for negative ground this may telegraph the markets itself.

For now I have some buys or additions on hold. I’m looking for follow through with some volatility today. Of course follow through to the upside. Over the next few days of trade I’d like to see the S&P climb over 1283. I feel this is a crucial hurdle for the market to get over.

As for Iran and oil, fuck’em both. I believe oil will continue to fade the anxiety or geo- political risk at hand. Oil still needs to break $134 on the downside to be real convincing that a downward trend is in place. Don’t forget oil inventory numbers @ 10:30 am.

GLT

by GW

After the close I went on small hike for Shrooms. My yield was minimal. Thus is life. Enough to make a fine sauce for the Goat Cheese and beet raviolis I got lazy in making a few days ago. As a cheat to save time I’m using Wonton Skins…Who has time to make ravioli on a week day?

Today’s buys were small too…just in case the market does not bounce. I bought SSO @ $58.29, QLD @ $74.37, and SNHY @ $31.65- $31.98…Since the Fly has turned negative on Global Growth I will hold off on EME which gave me prints I was looking for, but I failed to act. That is alright since I have plenty of stock on my plate. I also covered/sold the last of my SRS today @ $116.04

I bought DUG yesterday. Should have sold this morning @ $31.75, but I’m not going to let it become a loss with a cost of $29.40…

Also I’m going to kick out the other half of my GLD with a cost of $86.63…

We may have a nice move here to the upside as I suggested this morning. If we close above 1271 S&P I will add to SSO, QLD, and DDM for a momo’ trade.

I was thinking a while back, if we sent a man to the moon in less than 10 years after JFK’s speech why is it so hard to drill for oil?

Should it really take 10 years to recover oil out of the ground when it only took 10 years to land a man on the moon?

Seems to me, that this is a hard reality to accept. Anyway take a look at this gentlemen and his thoughts.

I’m celebrating oil’s debacle, not because my TSO is coming back slightly or because DUG is up a little from yesterday’s buy, but because this sell off is necessary for our future stability as a nation and for our stock markets.

At this point, we can not definitively say that the party has begun. We have only erased the 11 points we got from the upside after rhetoric out of Israel.

I hope Ahmadinejad keeps back peddling here like a loud mouth at the bar who shrinks because he realizes he only has “beer muscles.”

Seriously though, we had some trouble piercing the $134 p/b on the upside so this is a crucial level to break on the downside. Below that we have $130, $125, and then $115. I’m hoping we could get back to $90 p/b, but that is a lot to ask for at the moment.

Keep your eye on [[GSG]] – The iShares Commodity index. This is a good indicator for all things commodities. It just broke the 20 day ma of $73.22.

Usually when anything breaks the 20 day you get some kind of bounce back. I’m hoping this does not occur and we begin to break the 50 ma of $69.63  

At any rate, good luck to commodities shorts don’t get punk-ed here and keep the downside rolling!

Oh as a side note, if oil and other commodities continue their sell off, but the markets do not go higher and only tread water, be careful because this would indicate more downside for the indices.

Update: 12:10 pm~ The EIA said they expect oil consumption to drop by 300k barrels per day and to see an average price come into $127 p/b…Sounds good to me.