The $SPX closed up 0.45% to finish at 1197, as the action under the surface today appeared to be much weaker than the broad indices. Many individual issues sold off pretty hard in the morning, only to see a slight recovery by the closing bell. As the chart below shows, there are decent arguments for both bulls and bears to make.
On the one hand, we successfully tested the 20 day m.a. around 1183. On the other hand, we closed just below the trend line of the rally since February. If we fail at the 20 day tomorrow, then I expect the correction to deepen fairly quickly as we likely head back to the 1150 area. If, however, we show solid strength tomorrow, I will look for longs. I believe the setups we are seeing right now offer no distinct edge to either bulls or bears. Situations like these are precisely where traders make mistakes. So, I am willing to sit on my heavy cash position and see how things develop in the next day or two.
With that said, I would give the bears the slight edge here. Some key charts are indicating bearish patterns. The financial sector is one example. See the chart below.
The materials sector is also showing weakness, which points to a decrease in risk appetite as well.
However, to keep a big picture perspective, many charts are still healthy. It’s just that they look to pull back in the short term. The semis are a good example of that idea.
We have some more big earnings reports ahead of us, notably $AAPL. You should be focusing exclusively on the reaction to the earnings, as opposed to the numbers themselves. A good example of that idea was $IBM tonight, which reported an earnings beat after the bell. Yet, the stock was down 2% after hours. I think that reaction, if it carries over into the trading session tomorrow, indicates that an awful lot of optimism has been baked into the cake in the short term.
It is important to be open minded and nimble as a trader. Both of those skill sets will come into play tomorrow and Wednesday, as the market should tip its hand which way it wants to go in the short term.
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Looks like the good hands representative. Or at least the only feeder after the good hands man left???
Good picture
LoL
Chess,
Good insight!
You and I seem to see it the same way lately! Maybe not good for you… could mean you’re wrong.
In fact, just to be safe, today I went from 50% cash to 100% cash.
Also, as a gauge, I’m looking at about 15 leaders of which four, namely DECK, CLF, GMCR, and PLCN are looking a little shaky right now (not that they couldn’t base a bit and start higher again).
Thanks for great post again.
good read here, chess.
thanks for the info!
Thanks duane and Hawaii–appreciate you reading
energies are crazy strong, materials just up slightly
interesting
Definitely. The $XLE looks great, but the $XLB gives me pause.
In my experience, its the earnings guidance that moves stocks up or down after the announcement, not the actual earnings beat or miss. Just anecdotal though.
Agreed.