Quick Report: OIH Looks Busted

Our long time friend and ally, the Oil Service Holders Trust [[OIH]] looks ailing here, as it has broken through near term support at $190.   Next stop I see is it’s 38% retrace (long term fib chart) at about $183.50.   As I’ve mentioned, that’s a strong line historically, and we’ll likely see a bounce there.

That said our two favourites (sic) in the space,  Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] seem to be leading the charge southward.   Not a good sign.   RIG is already through it’s near term 38% fib retrace at $137.30, and heading for the 50% near term line at $129.60.  There should be even stronger support at the longer term two-year fib support at $125.10 or so.

NOV knifed through it’s near term 38% fib line at $76.70 “like butter” this morning, and seems to be on a course to touch at least its near term 50% fib support ($71.70), if not it’s longer term 38% line at $67.80.

Let it be known I am not surprised at this pullback, given the bullshit blow off in oils.   Am I also convinced this is no “top,” however.   I think these longer term 38’s will hold here and represent excellent long term entries when they show some accumulation on volume at those levels.  

Aside:  The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] is getting the homo hammer as well at the moment (disclosure: I am short MOS from the mid 120’s), but seems to be holding on to the recent July lows.   If MOS cannot convincingly puncture the $115 level with authority today, I will likely cover.