—-  Back Among Friends —

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C’mon, you know I couldn’t resist a low hanging curve like this one.    But enough about the not-so-mourned paedophile (sic), as it looks like the real Jacksons are breaking out again.  Even with the modified [[TZA]] hedge position, I still came away with a righteous 2.73% up day yesterday for the JCHP.

And that’s not including the sundry “side-bets” I made courtesy of the Chart Addict Casino and Burlesque Review.    I try not to play long there, as it can be “addicting.” 

Yesterday, while the site was down, I played around a little with the Jacksonian Portfolio Presentation again, and while I don’t think I will reveal the actual stock holdings every day, I thought the additional information below might be helpful for you to understand how I am trading within the portfolio to harvest gains and manage risk.   So today, I’ve done away with the “comments” portion in order to show you the actual holdings as of yesterday. 

As a point of clarification, the only change I made yesterday was to sell one half the TZA hedge position at $23.67, taking a little over a dollar loss on 201 shares (I still hold the remaining half).     That left me with a bit over $13,440 in cash in the position.  For the purposes of the weighting, I have cash sitting at an annual return of 2.5%.  

As you will see it was an amazing day yesterday, as silver cleared $14.00 and gold held steady as well, pushing the $940 area (we are flirting with that price again today, despite the rest of the market being down).   I think the miners will likely take a rest today and we may even be in for more consolidation.  The trick is not to get impatient here, and to manage your positions for the next major cycle turn. 

For today, continue to keep an eye on the junior miners, including Jacksonian Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , and non-Jacksonians NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Aurizon Mines Ltd.(USA) [[AZK]] and maybe most important, Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .  This should be a consolidation day for all of those, so shop with “moth hands.”

As for silvers, they are all strong relative to the market today as the underlying metal is making a nice return over $14 here.  Keep an eye on micro-junior [[EXK]] for action, and also [[CDE]] which seems to be a day ahead of its brethren, and may have a consolidation day today as well.

As for the non-PM’s… I continue to like Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] here, and good old Jacksonian Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] might run into trouble again at its 38.2% fib retrace at $10.88.   More in updates to come…

Jacksonian Core Holdings with Cash & Stock Weightings

Name/					Position’s	Number of	Percentage	Weighted
Ticker	24-Jun	25-Jun	% Change		Port Value	Shares	of Port	return
ANDE	$        28.84	$ 29.95	3.85%		$   18,085.75	603.86	10.34%	0.40%
EGO	8.51	9.39	10.34%		8,798.43	937.00	5.03%	0.52%
GDX	38.49	39.99	3.90%		12,103.51	302.66	6.92%	0.27%
GLD	91.45	92.31	0.94%		10,616.44	115.01	6.07%	0.06%
IAG	9.99	10.58	5.91%		13,045.62	1,233.05	7.46%	0.44%
MON	76.16	75.66	-0.66%		4,437.53	58.65	2.54%	-0.02%
NRP	20.92	20.83	-0.43%		8,646.74	415.11	4.94%	-0.02%
PAAS	18.47	19.34	4.71%		11,615.62	600.60	6.64%	0.31%
RGLD	43.74	46.00	5.17%		12,710.69	276.32	7.27%	0.38%
SLV	13.68	13.81	0.95%		11,218.52	812.35	6.41%	0.06%
SLW	8.34	8.81	5.64%		8,557.48	971.34	4.89%	0.28%
SSRI	18.65	19.65	5.36%		11,431.07	581.73	6.53%	0.35%
TBT	53.03	51.03	-3.77%		10,165.34	199.20	5.81%	-0.22%
TC	9.63	10.31	7.06%		4,836.52	469.11	2.76%	0.20%
TCK	16.12	15.99	-0.81%		10,631.65	664.89	6.08%	-0.05%
TZA	24.86	22.74	-8.53%		4,581.18	201.46	2.62%	-0.22%
AVG (daily)			2.48%		$ 161,482.09	Equity value	92.32%
AVG (monthly)			-5.89%		$   13,440.07	Cash	7.68%	0.00%
AVG (inception)			16.22%		$ 174,922.16	Tot Port Value	100.00%	2.73%

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Sorry for my lack of attendance today, Jackson fans, sometimes I have to attend to things that are in the market but not of the market.   If that sounds vaguely quizzical, then it’s served its purpose.

Unfortunately, whilst returning from one such errand, I noticed one of my stops had triggered.   I say “unfortunately” because I am a very reluctant seller of any Jacksonians, unless I’m a full seller, as in the case of the unabashed drunkard Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] (which continues to toddle down the streets of Skid Row, stopping only to barf on the brogans of the local constabulary).

   Unable to part with my Monsanto Company [[MON]] altogether, however, I had set a stop on half the shares upon a break of $77.25.   Much to my rue and deep chagrin, said stop was triggered today, and I was left with only half my position.   Offsetting that mournful loss was the addition of another $4,530 in cash with which to gamble at quoits whilst smoking Churchillian Monte Cristos and imbibing  tinctures of absinthe & laudanum.

One of these days I will get around to giving you a picture of the actual shares and dollar amounts of these holdings (hint– they all started at $10,000 each) , so it won’t all seem such a smokey mystery.   In the meantime, you’ll just have to make due with the raw return numbers as you have been doing, along with an idea of the cash talings left over from various sales profitable and not so.   

One last point… the “Three N’s of the Apocalypse”  NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] all looked very healthy today, as did Jacksonian Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] .   It seems the golds are making out a bit better than our silvers, which have been hit by the same “industrial malaise” that afflicted not only Jimmy Carter throughout the 70’s and up to today, but even our faithful friend and ally, The Fly.   Even Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] which has made a valiant rebound, seemed tired by Bernake’s machinations today. 

What can one trust but the original money, one asks?  What indeud?

Name	23-Jun	24-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 28.23	$   28.84	2.16%		Weird candle today. Stochs turning up.
EGO	8.07	8.51	5.45%		Nice continuation.  50-day @ $8.60
GDX	37.33	38.49	3.11%		Back over the 50-day quick ($38.20)
GLD	90.92	91.45	0.58%		50 day @ 91.60, POG $931
IAG	9.58	9.99	4.28%		Nice continuation.
MON	79.30	76.16	-3.96%		Sold half (58.65 shs) @ $77.23 (note cash below).
NRP	20.65	20.92	1.31%		Still hanging in there, facing my wrath
PAAS	18.31	18.47	0.87%		Still weak, as is silver in general.
RGLD	42.43	43.74	3.09%		Broke the downtrend line nicely.
SLV	13.62	13.68	0.44%		POS still under $14.
SLW	8.21	8.34	1.58%		Still looking for 200 day EMA @ $8.40
SSRI	17.99	18.65	3.67%		Still having trouble getting over 200 day EMA
TBT	51.85	53.03	2.28%		Treasury auctions over, I guess?
TC	9.42	9.63	2.23%		Rebounded, since I sold more, of course.
TCK	15.51	16.12	3.93%		Still bouncing, but w. less vigour (sic)
TZA	25.57	24.86	-2.78%		Down, but not as much as you’d think. Holding.
AVG (daily)			1.77%
AVG (monthly)			-8.02%
AVG (inception)			13.09%
Cash ( 000’s)			$       8.67

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[[AZK]] – big buy at EOD on Friday — over 20% of the day’s stock traded in the last 30 minutes.

[[CDE]] – Very high volume (over four times average) white doji after ten (!) red down days in a row.  Bears watching.

[[DROOY]] — 29% of all trading in one five minute period on Friday (3:50-:55) drove the stock up 43 cents (5%).

[[EGO]] This Jackson pick also had almost three times volume on Friday.  Strong into close until last five minutes, with a massive sell stick.  Ended with an inverted (white) hammer, volume indicating bottoming.

[[FRG]] Could get interesting over $4.21  — handle breakout?  Also, E8’s possible AEM buyout pick.

[[GRS]] Could be a short here, on a break of $6.90.  Weird EOD activity on Friday.

[[IAG]] Again, almost 3x normal volume on an up day for this Jackson, but massive last ten minute red candles give pause (1.4 mm shares out of 9mm total).

[[NGD]] Another that looks great on the daily chart, but then that last five minute plunge gives one pause.   Breaking out up til then — could’ve been opex.  Looking for handle breakout here.

[[NXG]] Massive volume white doji, but last ten minutes blood red too.  Still on trend.

[[RBY]] Maybe the best pick of the day, breaking to new all time highs on Friday.  STILL had EOD selling the last ten minutes!  What was going on?   I guess we’ll see soon enough…

Developing…

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Oh I had a great picture for today.   You shoulda seen it.   Larry Kudlow, nekkid, save for a  leprechaun’s chapeau and a human sized version of the parti-coloured (sic) NBC Peacock’s fan jutting from his ass-quarters,  carrying a wee pot o’ gold for the Jacksons.

Alas, Vincenzo is still in back of the cold room there, with the sand blaster and the servers.  You know that marinara gravy, it is recalcitrant.   So you’ll just have to use your imaginations.

On to today.  First, with regard to the new Jacksonian pick:  I still haven’t made it, but today I ruled out any natural gas plays.  If you are interested in the reason, please visit The Caveman Forecaster’s blog for a great post on the natural gas market, and be sure to read the comments that follow it as well.   Short version:  natty is just too volatile and not a great long term performer due to its seasonality, and therefore not a good candidate for long term value like a Jackson should be.

So we’re just going to have to nominate another candidate.  The door is still open for your suggestions.

Today, I have to admit I was leaning in the direction of the gold camp again (surprise!).   I told you in the post previous about my increasing interest in Gold Fields Ltd.,  which had an almost mystical meeting with it’s long term (ten year!)  61.8% fibonacci retrace today at the low of $11.42, from which it bounced nicely to close today at $11.58 (+2.75%).   I bot a starter position a little higher than that, at $11.67 today.

I also reiterated that the junior miners — as expected — seem to be leading the recovery from our pullback here.   For example the non-Jacksonian “Three Golden Horsemen of N”  juniors — [[NG]], [[NGD]], and [[NXG]] were all up 6.72%, 7.97 % and 4.29%, respectivley.   As mentioned I added to my stores of NG today at $4.94.    Oh yeah, another junior gold I own that did well today was [[ANV]] up 5.69%.

I also added to SLW today at the propitous price of $8.88, even though I own gobs of this one already.   I just couldn’t hold off with it below $9, and may add again.   Stylene of The PPT also added some SSRI at $19.41, and I was jealous even though I was “full up” in that Jacksonian stalwart already.   Some of my last purchases in SSRI were higher than that level!  

I think the silvers may have begun to feel out a bottom today as well, as you will see in the Jacksonian performance.   In fact, the precious metal component of the Jacksons  is now “market divergent,” although I’ve a feeling the market will catch up with us tomorrow.

Name	15-Jun	16-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 28.83	$ 29.04	0.73%		Another doji, but crawling back up the triangle.
EGO	8.28	8.51	2.78%		Nice junior-joining movement at EOD.
GDX	37.97	38.37	1.05%		Nice inside day, showing a change of direction.
GLD	91.10	91.93	0.91%		POG back to $935, nice step.
IAG	9.25	9.54	3.14%		Oversold yesterday, joined the juniors today.
MON	84.97	81.62	-3.94%		Sued by rival, still on trend.
NRP	22.99	22.44	-2.39%		38.2% fib @ 22.05 decent entry
PAAS	20.95	20.74	-1.00%		20.70 support held, still flabby.
RGLD	41.81	42.90	2.61%		Didn’t like EOD selloff… 41.50 in future?
SLV	13.83	13.99	1.16%		PO Silver still on 50 day EMA! – ($14.16)
SLW	9.25	8.92	-3.57%		Big support in the $8.50 range if we’re “lucky”
SSRI	19.92	19.62	-1.51%		If this got to $19, I’d buy it one last time.
TBT	55.49	53.59	-3.42%		Getting ready to buy back the sold calls at $53
TC	11.05	10.68	-3.35%		Support bounce at $10.40.  Still w “the market?”
TSO	14.98	14.98	0.00%		Not natties to replace, so don’t even say it.
AVG (daily)			-0.45%
AVG (monthly)			-7.28%
AVG (inception)			16.47%

Unattended Addenda: No vids postable this week either,  but this is pretty funny fun that is funny (hat tip to the Big Swan).

Wednesday Morning Update:  Bot 1k more SSRI @ $19.02.   Bouncing on lower channel and support.

Wednesday Morning Update:   Of all the junior golds I mentioned yesterday, [[ANV]] is showing the strongest relative strength, which bodes well for it’s continuing performance as this market turns back up for us.    I may add a little here as well.

Wednesday Morning Update:   RGLD filled that gap from back on 6/12.   Currently (@ 12:23 EST) seems to be in “full recovery mode” at $44.23 (+3.10%).    This is perhaps my most treasured Jackson, as you know.    Hat tip to “Glud” for the shout out on CA’s blog.

Wednesday Afternoon Update:   I may have found the new Jacksonian.   I really like the pullback on [[TCK]]; especially when considering it’s pullback — almost to the  penny — to it’s 23.6% long term fib line (officially 14.52).   I bot a small starter here (1.5 k shs) @ $15.04.

Wednesday Afternoon Update:   Might do a whole post on this but I am starting to look at other “ten year fib charts” since I got such curious results from GFI and TCK today.  Just pulled up SSRI’s and it’s 61.8% fib was right at $19.01!

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UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall.   It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace.  Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07.   No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.  

Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today.   On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on.   [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up.  Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?

I like [[TIE]]  and [[TC]] is just insane.  I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact.   In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today).   I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.

On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts.   Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold.   Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.

Queries welcome.

Here’s a great theme for today.   Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida.  Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):

Update:  Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiztRc910Ps 450 300]

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 Update:  Sorry, no calls to sell on TC!  Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21.   I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.

Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles.  Hanging on the 61.8% fib.

Update:  Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot.  Isn’t that just like a woman?

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‘Twas a rough day in the trenches for most of the Jacksonian Core,  but then we turned lemons into lemonade by using the retrenchment here to pick up some final positions in the silver miners, including AGQ (Double Silver ETF), PAAS,  and SSRI.   Those buys were featured in my previous post,  if you want entry points.

   I did not add to my “favourite” (sic) silver miner – SLW, but only because I already have what I consider to be a “full position” in SLW, at least for now.    I may augment that position from time to time with options purchases (or sales in hedging situations), but I will likely not add any more equity in that name.

I also eschewed adding more EXK  (-5.89%) today, due mostly to it’s volatility and low float (less than 150 k shares traded a day).  This is a stock you want to accumulate when it’s asleep — its just too damn hard to pick up when it’s moving hard one way or another.    I reserve the right to add to EXK in more calm seas.

I also added some non-Jacksonian Core gold positions, some old, and some new, whose entries are also found in the previous post.    You’ll recall I purchased a beginning position in NGD just before yesterday’s close.    That stock actually held up well, so I decided to also add its “brothers” NG and NXG.  All of these have been showing favourable (sic) patterns in the last few weeks, and their purchase is part of a diversification strategy in the smaller miners.   It’s best to take this shotgun approach with these smaller guys, as you usually cannot pick up their exposure via the GDX ETF, which only purchases the larger cap issues  but you want to have a position in these flyers for when they start to run.   Some of them will double and triple, but in these cycle peaks, you never know which.     

In that regard, I also added to my position in ANV at the end of the day.    Like with SLW and EGO, I now have a full position in this name, and expect to see it run to at least the 61.8% fib retrace at $6.72 before breaking out to new 52-week highs. 

I also took this opportunity to hedge out my largest (and non-Jacksonian) position in UPS, and to begin a “foot in” purchase in SRS  as well. 

Non-PM Jacksonians did well and not so well today, MON was up a little less than 1% while its sister Ag play ANDE was off  4.67%.    If ANDE cannot hold above the $19.40 uptrend line here, it’s likely to fill that gap over a dollar below it.   As well, Jacksonian Core Coal play NRP (-4.89%) has been performing miserably here, even as coal operators have been consolidating.    This could be due to a (temporary) interest rate response, but I won’t recommend adding to this one until it’s back over the 38.6% retrace at $22.70.     Last, refiner TSO was largely flat–  off less than half a percent.

Without further ado, here’s the 14-Member Jacksonian Core’s performance (arranged alphabetically for your reading pleasure) for today:

ANDE — $19.79  (-4.67%)

GDX — $37.94 (-2.61%)

GLD — $91.09 (+0.42)

IAG — $9.87 (-2.66%) 

PAAS — $19.26 (-3.02%)

RGLD — $40.60 (-2.98%)

SLV — $13.81 (-1.49%)

SLW — $8.85 (-5.04%)

SSRI — $19.93 (-5.18%)

TBT — $49.29 (-2.08%)

TC — $7.68 (-4.00%)

TSO — $16.09 (-0.43%)

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A bloody good evening to you all!

(Warning! Extremely stupid video to follow, usher the children from the room)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teM_imSYGVs 450 300] 

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