[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0qlOEKkBWA 450 300]

I was just off reading some other blogs and I’m finding that there’s quite a bit of misery out there.  You might imagine from where that misery stems, if you are wont to read more “misery oriented” blogs than this one.

In one particular meloncholy review,  I even started to feel sorry for my friend Tim, The Enchanter.   He’s a little bit down in the jowls these days because the world hasn’t fallen off a cliff as properly prescribed quite yet.   It’s a monetary phenomenon, I says.  It’s a conspiracy of Owls and black flutes, he says.   Whatever.

I’m here for some solace for the bearish and perhaps an idea or two.   My friends, we are coming to an exciting time of year and I hope you will bear with me.  September, you see, is a traditional crap pile for all that is Equity.   Something to do with the Medieval harvest payments, or the rise of the Mayan Moon, but it’s always been our worst month for stocks since your grandmother can remember.  That should make some of our Ursines, happy, no?

The good news for we Jacksons is that August comes before it, and August marks the start of the precious metal bull season on into it’s tumescent end in Happy Claus.  In other words, it’s a good idea to buy gold and silver here in Jewelry’s Worst Month because it only gets better as everyone picks out their silver pumpkins brooches, gold encrusted turkey lame dresses and platinum filigreed Christmas chokers in the coming crispiness.

And don’t even get me started about back to school.  

Let’s have a look at our friend Baby Huey ($HUI) shall we ?  Here’s a triangle you’re going to love by next month:

You’ll note we’ll be “do or die” by mid-September.  Want to make a wager on whether we break out before then? 

Now a specific pick that I really like, and have for a while, Non-Jackson though it may be.   Here’s the old chart of New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] I gave you back on May 21st, 2009:

Now here we are three months and 45.5% higher at $3.49, but don’t thank me just yet.   I think we’re getting ready to rock the Casbah in an unctious and lugubrious manner.  Checkout what chart analysis number two brings forth:

Yeah, it’s pulled back a little on Friday, but that may mark your opportunity.  Frankly, I’d be surprised if  they bludgeoned this little junior miss back to $3.25, but if “they” did, that would be a magnificent place to throw in an order.   I know I will be looking to add here on Monday, or maybe Tuesday if we do get  second day of pullback, and I will keep you updated.  

These juniors can really move with this gold bull, so make sure you keep an eye on Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , [[BAA]] and their brethren, even as you line your portfolio with sturdy Jacksons for the coming Fall (possible pun intended). 

Best to you all.

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I figured I’d take some time off from battling economic illiterates and Stockholm-Syndromed left wing Canadians on nature of government bureaucracies to comment on the market. 

The only thing I can say is:  maybe I should do more political blog posts, as it seems to act like Miracle-Gro on my portfolio garden.   And no one is more an example of that than the Ag King Monsanto Company [[MON]] who is kicking down doors and stealing third world children for medical experiments with quite the profitable panache these days.  (Sorry that last was from an E.L.F. brochure I picked up at an Al Gore hedge fund meeting yesterday).  

As a result of today’s ridiculous meltup, [[TZA]] hit my final stop which was $18.30, though my “eggsellent” trading service didn’t sell it for another four pennies.  I will have words for them, believe me.   I always have words.

I also took the opportunity to grab another 100 shares of MON for the Jacksons today at the 10 am price ($81.09), which will get my position size back in line with its former numbers.  Yes, I am buying it higher than where I sold, but what the hell, I didn’t sell it on my “real” portfolio and that should be a lesson to me.  Here I am trying to be more conservative with the Jacksons and all I’m doing is costing you money.   I will try to be more clingy for you in future.

Also at 10 am, I added another $5,000 worth of Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] at $14.13 (354 more shares), which will also bring that position back in line with original numbers. I still like Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] here, but am still waiting for a pullback, which has become a wearying excercise. I also like Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] and am adding here at $8.20 to my personal portfolio. Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] I have mentioned and bot a small amount earlier this month. It is “BTFO” today.

On the PM front, I like Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] here, if for only for the fact that it’s lagging, and that I think it will catch up with the crowd. On the fast moving fronts, the silvers are off the blocks again and sprinting ahead. I like Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] here, a lot. On the non Jackson front, the juniors are not exactly kicking as much arse as I would expect, but I continue to like their prospects over the majors. All the N’s are good Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] and New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] as well as [[EXK]] , [[BAA]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] . Also keep an eye on Nevsun Resources (USA) [[NSU]] and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] . Last of the list, Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] looks nice now, but will look really good on a break of $2.50. As always proceed at your own risk on these little pocket rockets.

I would be remiss if I were to ignore the relative beating the Obama Machine is taking in the polls on this healthcare initiative, and the effect it is having on the prospects of the horrendous bill (mentioned in last post) getting through Congress. I think the alleveation of that impending government blanket on our economy is what’s causing this meltup. That said, the euphoria could be temporary, especially if the Messiah Road Show gets any traction. If last night’s Ramble-a-thon is any indication, I think we’re moving closer to safe ground.

The big insurers are also taking some heart today, with Humana Inc. [[HUM]] , CIGNA Corporation [[CI]] , UnitedHealth Group Inc. [[UNH]] and Aetna Inc. [[AET]] all showing solid gains. I will not buy a one of them, however, until I know Obamacare is dead, and then I might only grab some Almost Family, Inc. [[AFAM]] when I know its safe. Let’s face it, health insurance companies are going to be under the gun for years to come here, and until Congress gets its hand out of their pockets, they’ll struggle within their regulatory environment. You are better off sticking with the inflationary names for now.

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UPDATE: I forgot to mention Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. [[CWCO]] which I am buying here at 16.45 (1k shares, starter). One of the miracles of St. Thug. (Salt water into potable)

UPDATE:  Just bot 1k more The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] for the personal portfolio @ $31.09.

UPDATE:  Just bot 2k more  [[BIOS]] for the personal portfolio @ $6.32.

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I think there’s some good news in the commodity sector.  I still don’t trust the silvers yet (under 200 day MA’s still)though I’m holding every last one.   I like Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] here a lot.   Monsanto Company [[MON]] is still sick, but [[TBT]] may be a purchase tomorrow as well.

I’ve been running myself ragged here, so the joozy picks will have to wait for tomorrow, but I’ve some nice looking juniors– NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and [[BAA]] — that I think will be worth your while.   [[BIOS]] should also be bot with all due prejudice. 

Let’s see what Intel Corporation [[INTC]] does for us here, too tomorrow.   But the best news would be for the Obamarxist’s socialized medicine plan to get shot down.  The Obamanists  say they’ll do it even without any GOP votes at all — which is hubris beyond all understanding, and political risk,  if one is a thinking prudent Dem.   I just don’t see that happening on such a third rail issue as the destruction of our innovative and life-saving  modern health care system.   They haven’t all swallowed the kool-aid down in Jonestown yet.

So there’s hope, which may give a boost to this market that means more than fat tech earnings.   More talk of juniors and such tomorrow.  Jacksons commentary below.   Best to you all.

Name/			%	Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	13-Jul	14-Jul	Change	Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        27.37	$     27.97	2.19%	$        8,445.05	0.11%		Got an oversold rebound
EGO	8.47	8.71	2.83%	8,161.27	0.14%		Closed just above 20&50 day (8.69)
GDX	35.93	36.76	2.31%	11,125.91	0.15%		$HUI Bounce trade working nicely here
GLD	90.19	90.81	0.69%	10,443.93	0.04%		approaching 20 day @ $91.11
IAG	9.32	9.65	3.54%	11,898.89	0.25%		Closed over 50 day ($9.61)
MON	73.55	74.70	1.56%	4,381.23	0.04%		Held over $70, approaching 20 day ($75.61)
NRP	21.37	21.34	-0.14%	4,429.22	0.00%		Back over 20 day, 50 day @ 21.95
PAAS	17.99	18.24	1.39%	10,954.95	0.09%		Needs to get over $19 to break DT
RGLD	39.32	39.54	0.56%	10,925.67	0.04%		Still under 200 day @ 39.68
SLV	12.66	12.72	0.46%	10,331.44	0.03%		Still bouncing off 200 wk MA,  as noted
SLW	7.68	7.88	2.60%	7,654.13	0.12%		Still well under all MA’s
SSRI	17.73	17.93	1.13%	10,430.48	0.07%		In consolidation zone, below all MA’s
TBT	49.02	50.63	3.28%	10,085.66	0.20%		Breaking downtrend today, may get more
TC	10.20	10.72	5.10%	5,028.86	0.15%		Launching again, may be back in tomorrow
TCK	16.47	17.15	4.13%	11,402.93	0.28%		Above all the MA’s again, looks good
TZA	24.45	23.99	-1.88%	4,832.81	-0.05%		Fading, but holding hedge
Cash (000)	$         0.03	$    26.42	0.01%	26,420.79	0.00%		Same
AVG (daily)			1.75%	$ 166,953.22	1.66%
AVG (monthly)			-1.00%	Actual
AVG (inception)			11.22%	Return	11.30%

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—-  Back Among Friends —

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C’mon, you know I couldn’t resist a low hanging curve like this one.    But enough about the not-so-mourned paedophile (sic), as it looks like the real Jacksons are breaking out again.  Even with the modified [[TZA]] hedge position, I still came away with a righteous 2.73% up day yesterday for the JCHP.

And that’s not including the sundry “side-bets” I made courtesy of the Chart Addict Casino and Burlesque Review.    I try not to play long there, as it can be “addicting.” 

Yesterday, while the site was down, I played around a little with the Jacksonian Portfolio Presentation again, and while I don’t think I will reveal the actual stock holdings every day, I thought the additional information below might be helpful for you to understand how I am trading within the portfolio to harvest gains and manage risk.   So today, I’ve done away with the “comments” portion in order to show you the actual holdings as of yesterday. 

As a point of clarification, the only change I made yesterday was to sell one half the TZA hedge position at $23.67, taking a little over a dollar loss on 201 shares (I still hold the remaining half).     That left me with a bit over $13,440 in cash in the position.  For the purposes of the weighting, I have cash sitting at an annual return of 2.5%.  

As you will see it was an amazing day yesterday, as silver cleared $14.00 and gold held steady as well, pushing the $940 area (we are flirting with that price again today, despite the rest of the market being down).   I think the miners will likely take a rest today and we may even be in for more consolidation.  The trick is not to get impatient here, and to manage your positions for the next major cycle turn. 

For today, continue to keep an eye on the junior miners, including Jacksonian Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , and non-Jacksonians NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Aurizon Mines Ltd.(USA) [[AZK]] and maybe most important, Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .  This should be a consolidation day for all of those, so shop with “moth hands.”

As for silvers, they are all strong relative to the market today as the underlying metal is making a nice return over $14 here.  Keep an eye on micro-junior [[EXK]] for action, and also [[CDE]] which seems to be a day ahead of its brethren, and may have a consolidation day today as well.

As for the non-PM’s… I continue to like Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] here, and good old Jacksonian Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] might run into trouble again at its 38.2% fib retrace at $10.88.   More in updates to come…

Jacksonian Core Holdings with Cash & Stock Weightings

Name/					Position’s	Number of	Percentage	Weighted
Ticker	24-Jun	25-Jun	% Change		Port Value	Shares	of Port	return
ANDE	$        28.84	$ 29.95	3.85%		$   18,085.75	603.86	10.34%	0.40%
EGO	8.51	9.39	10.34%		8,798.43	937.00	5.03%	0.52%
GDX	38.49	39.99	3.90%		12,103.51	302.66	6.92%	0.27%
GLD	91.45	92.31	0.94%		10,616.44	115.01	6.07%	0.06%
IAG	9.99	10.58	5.91%		13,045.62	1,233.05	7.46%	0.44%
MON	76.16	75.66	-0.66%		4,437.53	58.65	2.54%	-0.02%
NRP	20.92	20.83	-0.43%		8,646.74	415.11	4.94%	-0.02%
PAAS	18.47	19.34	4.71%		11,615.62	600.60	6.64%	0.31%
RGLD	43.74	46.00	5.17%		12,710.69	276.32	7.27%	0.38%
SLV	13.68	13.81	0.95%		11,218.52	812.35	6.41%	0.06%
SLW	8.34	8.81	5.64%		8,557.48	971.34	4.89%	0.28%
SSRI	18.65	19.65	5.36%		11,431.07	581.73	6.53%	0.35%
TBT	53.03	51.03	-3.77%		10,165.34	199.20	5.81%	-0.22%
TC	9.63	10.31	7.06%		4,836.52	469.11	2.76%	0.20%
TCK	16.12	15.99	-0.81%		10,631.65	664.89	6.08%	-0.05%
TZA	24.86	22.74	-8.53%		4,581.18	201.46	2.62%	-0.22%
AVG (daily)			2.48%		$ 161,482.09	Equity value	92.32%
AVG (monthly)			-5.89%		$   13,440.07	Cash	7.68%	0.00%
AVG (inception)			16.22%		$ 174,922.16	Tot Port Value	100.00%	2.73%

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Sorry for my lack of attendance today, Jackson fans, sometimes I have to attend to things that are in the market but not of the market.   If that sounds vaguely quizzical, then it’s served its purpose.

Unfortunately, whilst returning from one such errand, I noticed one of my stops had triggered.   I say “unfortunately” because I am a very reluctant seller of any Jacksonians, unless I’m a full seller, as in the case of the unabashed drunkard Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] (which continues to toddle down the streets of Skid Row, stopping only to barf on the brogans of the local constabulary).

   Unable to part with my Monsanto Company [[MON]] altogether, however, I had set a stop on half the shares upon a break of $77.25.   Much to my rue and deep chagrin, said stop was triggered today, and I was left with only half my position.   Offsetting that mournful loss was the addition of another $4,530 in cash with which to gamble at quoits whilst smoking Churchillian Monte Cristos and imbibing  tinctures of absinthe & laudanum.

One of these days I will get around to giving you a picture of the actual shares and dollar amounts of these holdings (hint– they all started at $10,000 each) , so it won’t all seem such a smokey mystery.   In the meantime, you’ll just have to make due with the raw return numbers as you have been doing, along with an idea of the cash talings left over from various sales profitable and not so.   

One last point… the “Three N’s of the Apocalypse”  NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] all looked very healthy today, as did Jacksonian Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] .   It seems the golds are making out a bit better than our silvers, which have been hit by the same “industrial malaise” that afflicted not only Jimmy Carter throughout the 70’s and up to today, but even our faithful friend and ally, The Fly.   Even Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] which has made a valiant rebound, seemed tired by Bernake’s machinations today. 

What can one trust but the original money, one asks?  What indeud?

Name	23-Jun	24-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 28.23	$   28.84	2.16%		Weird candle today. Stochs turning up.
EGO	8.07	8.51	5.45%		Nice continuation.  50-day @ $8.60
GDX	37.33	38.49	3.11%		Back over the 50-day quick ($38.20)
GLD	90.92	91.45	0.58%		50 day @ 91.60, POG $931
IAG	9.58	9.99	4.28%		Nice continuation.
MON	79.30	76.16	-3.96%		Sold half (58.65 shs) @ $77.23 (note cash below).
NRP	20.65	20.92	1.31%		Still hanging in there, facing my wrath
PAAS	18.31	18.47	0.87%		Still weak, as is silver in general.
RGLD	42.43	43.74	3.09%		Broke the downtrend line nicely.
SLV	13.62	13.68	0.44%		POS still under $14.
SLW	8.21	8.34	1.58%		Still looking for 200 day EMA @ $8.40
SSRI	17.99	18.65	3.67%		Still having trouble getting over 200 day EMA
TBT	51.85	53.03	2.28%		Treasury auctions over, I guess?
TC	9.42	9.63	2.23%		Rebounded, since I sold more, of course.
TCK	15.51	16.12	3.93%		Still bouncing, but w. less vigour (sic)
TZA	25.57	24.86	-2.78%		Down, but not as much as you’d think. Holding.
AVG (daily)			1.77%
AVG (monthly)			-8.02%
AVG (inception)			13.09%
Cash ( 000’s)			$       8.67

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[[AZK]] – big buy at EOD on Friday — over 20% of the day’s stock traded in the last 30 minutes.

[[CDE]] – Very high volume (over four times average) white doji after ten (!) red down days in a row.  Bears watching.

[[DROOY]] — 29% of all trading in one five minute period on Friday (3:50-:55) drove the stock up 43 cents (5%).

[[EGO]] This Jackson pick also had almost three times volume on Friday.  Strong into close until last five minutes, with a massive sell stick.  Ended with an inverted (white) hammer, volume indicating bottoming.

[[FRG]] Could get interesting over $4.21  — handle breakout?  Also, E8’s possible AEM buyout pick.

[[GRS]] Could be a short here, on a break of $6.90.  Weird EOD activity on Friday.

[[IAG]] Again, almost 3x normal volume on an up day for this Jackson, but massive last ten minute red candles give pause (1.4 mm shares out of 9mm total).

[[NGD]] Another that looks great on the daily chart, but then that last five minute plunge gives one pause.   Breaking out up til then — could’ve been opex.  Looking for handle breakout here.

[[NXG]] Massive volume white doji, but last ten minutes blood red too.  Still on trend.

[[RBY]] Maybe the best pick of the day, breaking to new all time highs on Friday.  STILL had EOD selling the last ten minutes!  What was going on?   I guess we’ll see soon enough…

Developing…

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