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Green Shoots in Gold Fields?

Oh I had a great picture for today.   You shoulda seen it.   Larry Kudlow, nekkid, save for a  leprechaun’s chapeau and a human sized version of the parti-coloured (sic) NBC Peacock’s fan jutting from his ass-quarters,  carrying a wee pot o’ gold for the Jacksons.

Alas, Vincenzo is still in back of the cold room there, with the sand blaster and the servers.  You know that marinara gravy, it is recalcitrant.   So you’ll just have to use your imaginations.

On to today.  First, with regard to the new Jacksonian pick:  I still haven’t made it, but today I ruled out any natural gas plays.  If you are interested in the reason, please visit The Caveman Forecaster’s blog for a great post on the natural gas market, and be sure to read the comments that follow it as well.   Short version:  natty is just too volatile and not a great long term performer due to its seasonality, and therefore not a good candidate for long term value like a Jackson should be.

So we’re just going to have to nominate another candidate.  The door is still open for your suggestions.

Today, I have to admit I was leaning in the direction of the gold camp again (surprise!).   I told you in the post previous about my increasing interest in Gold Fields Ltd.,  which had an almost mystical meeting with it’s long term (ten year!)  61.8% fibonacci retrace today at the low of $11.42, from which it bounced nicely to close today at $11.58 (+2.75%).   I bot a starter position a little higher than that, at $11.67 today.

I also reiterated that the junior miners — as expected — seem to be leading the recovery from our pullback here.   For example the non-Jacksonian “Three Golden Horsemen of N”  juniors — [[NG]], [[NGD]], and [[NXG]] were all up 6.72%, 7.97 % and 4.29%, respectivley.   As mentioned I added to my stores of NG today at $4.94.    Oh yeah, another junior gold I own that did well today was [[ANV]] up 5.69%.

I also added to SLW today at the propitous price of $8.88, even though I own gobs of this one already.   I just couldn’t hold off with it below $9, and may add again.   Stylene of The PPT also added some SSRI at $19.41, and I was jealous even though I was “full up” in that Jacksonian stalwart already.   Some of my last purchases in SSRI were higher than that level!  

I think the silvers may have begun to feel out a bottom today as well, as you will see in the Jacksonian performance.   In fact, the precious metal component of the Jacksons  is now “market divergent,” although I’ve a feeling the market will catch up with us tomorrow.

Name 15-Jun 16-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.83  $ 29.04 0.73%   Another doji, but crawling back up the triangle.
EGO       8.28       8.51 2.78%   Nice junior-joining movement at EOD.
GDX     37.97     38.37 1.05%   Nice inside day, showing a change of direction.
GLD     91.10     91.93 0.91%   POG back to $935, nice step.
IAG       9.25       9.54 3.14%   Oversold yesterday, joined the juniors today.
MON     84.97     81.62 -3.94%   Sued by rival, still on trend.
NRP     22.99     22.44 -2.39%   38.2% fib @ 22.05 decent entry
PAAS     20.95     20.74 -1.00%   20.70 support held, still flabby.
RGLD     41.81     42.90 2.61%   Didn’t like EOD selloff… 41.50 in future?
SLV     13.83     13.99 1.16%   PO Silver still on 50 day EMA! – ($14.16)
SLW       9.25       8.92 -3.57%   Big support in the $8.50 range if we’re “lucky” 
SSRI     19.92     19.62 -1.51%   If this got to $19, I’d buy it one last time. 
TBT     55.49     53.59 -3.42%   Getting ready to buy back the sold calls at $53
TC     11.05     10.68 -3.35%   Support bounce at $10.40.  Still w “the market?”
TSO     14.98     14.98 0.00%   Not natties to replace, so don’t even say it.
AVG (daily)   -0.45%    
AVG (monthly)   -7.28%    
AVG (inception)   16.47%    

Unattended Addenda: No vids postable this week either,  but this is pretty funny fun that is funny (hat tip to the Big Swan).

Wednesday Morning Update:  Bot 1k more SSRI @ $19.02.   Bouncing on lower channel and support.

Wednesday Morning Update:   Of all the junior golds I mentioned yesterday, [[ANV]] is showing the strongest relative strength, which bodes well for it’s continuing performance as this market turns back up for us.    I may add a little here as well.

Wednesday Morning Update:   RGLD filled that gap from back on 6/12.   Currently (@ 12:23 EST) seems to be in “full recovery mode” at $44.23 (+3.10%).    This is perhaps my most treasured Jackson, as you know.    Hat tip to “Glud” for the shout out on CA’s blog.

Wednesday Afternoon Update:   I may have found the new Jacksonian.   I really like the pullback on [[TCK]]; especially when considering it’s pullback — almost to the  penny — to it’s 23.6% long term fib line (officially 14.52).   I bot a small starter here (1.5 k shs) @ $15.04.

Wednesday Afternoon Update:   Might do a whole post on this but I am starting to look at other “ten year fib charts” since I got such curious results from GFI and TCK today.  Just pulled up SSRI’s and it’s 61.8% fib was right at $19.01!

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Oh Shizzle! They’ve Killed RoboCodizzle!

Naw, it’s not that bad, yet,  but Detroit is getting there.   Let’s see what a couple of years of a U.A.W. -driven Chrysler do to it.

But let’s put all that aside and talk about the invisibility of this gold bull, shall we?  I mean, my astute buddies over in the estimable PPT — that Powerful Profit Taj– (have you signed up yet??)… even those gentlemen seem to be walking around that trading room like zombies in the Night of the Living Dead, completely oblivious to the blooming precious metal bull that is erupting around them.  

 Why, just today, one of our estimable patrons sold our featured “pocket rocket” junior miner (see below) as if it were one of CA’s 30 second Viagra Vehicles.   Let me tell you, I was aghast!  Mortified!

But let me assure you, Jacksonians, this odd behaviour (sic) only inures to our collective benefit.   The longer the general public (and let me make clear that the PPT community is NOT the “General Public,” they are at least “English Beat” or barring that “Fine Young Cannibals”– ) remains ignorant of the stealth bull in the precious metal miners, the better it is for our accumulation purposes.   

For, my friends  (come, gather close so I may whisper it to you) — we shall be as the most miserable pinch penny miser on Ebenezer Scrooge’s third shift staff, sparingly sifting our gold and silver specie into dark musty lock boxes while others pass the punch with knowing glee and manly aplomb.  Let them have their japes and their ales and their merry tunes played upon a three stringed fiddle, for we shall act quietly here below, rebuilding the foundation of a hackneyed and eroding financial system for our children and their’s.   It is weary work, but God smiles upon us, and there shall be reward.

That said, I dont’ have much time to dwell on the blindness of the common man, so let’s take a quick look at what they’re missing. 

Remember this chart of the AMEX Gold Bugs Index from a week or so back?

hui_daily1

Pretty nice looking chart, no?  Maybe some of you got long after looking at it?  Maybe some of you ran out and bought some gold stocks the next day, too.   (Heh) 

 Let’s see if that was the smart thing to do, from the perspective of a week later:

hui_dailyii

Well peel me naked and slather me with mornay sauce, whaddaya know?  A breakout just like we expected.   And look at all that free air we’ve got to go.   Hmmmm…  and what was  in that Index again?  Oh yeah, a lot of juicy big cap gold and silver stocks.   

Think maybe that break into the free zone will have some effect on our junior miners?   Heck, let’s see:

ngd_daily 

 This is your golden burrito for tomorrow and for the summer, my friends.  We shall share recipes for further tasty treats as time allows, but for now, know that outside the Jacksonian Core*, I am also purchasing and/or considering the purchase of the following precious metal mining hardies:  [[GG]], [[EGO]], [[AUY]], [[EXK]], [[NGD]], [[NXG]], [[NG]] and of course [[AGQ]].    

Keep in mind also, that there was a pretty bearish candle on the TLT today, boys and girls.  If that bond group and the Ten-Year Starting breaking down, it’ll likely be sayonora for the large part of this market.   Except maybe one part.

Caveat:  If you follow me into the purchase of any of the above named precious metal plays, your children will be stolen by Hobgoblins and traded to dwarves for shiny strips of tin foil and moldy bacon. 

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 ANDE — $22.20  (-2.42%)

GDX — $41.24 (+1.90%)

GLD — $93.85  (+1.73)

IAG – $10.23 (+0..69%) 

MON — $89.29 (-2.77)
 
NRP — $22.57 (-3.42%)

PAAS — $21.19 (+0.95%)

RGLD – $44.90 (+4.98%)

SLV — $14.34  (+1.69%)

SLW — $9.41  (-0.53%)

SSRI — $22.17  (+0.77%)

TBT — $52.43 (+4.96%)

TC — $8.46 (-7.44%)

TSO — $16.53 (-4.40%)

Daily Average: 0.25%

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UPDATE: I sold the calls on TBT again, here @ $53.58.   I think TBT is a bit parabolic here, and TLT looks like it’s ready to bounce.

See caveats above.

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Jacksonian Deflation

Fight the Power
Fight the Power

‘Twas a rough day in the trenches for most of the Jacksonian Core,  but then we turned lemons into lemonade by using the retrenchment here to pick up some final positions in the silver miners, including AGQ (Double Silver ETF), PAAS,  and SSRI.   Those buys were featured in my previous post,  if you want entry points.

   I did not add to my “favourite” (sic) silver miner – SLW, but only because I already have what I consider to be a “full position” in SLW, at least for now.    I may augment that position from time to time with options purchases (or sales in hedging situations), but I will likely not add any more equity in that name.

I also eschewed adding more EXK  (-5.89%) today, due mostly to it’s volatility and low float (less than 150 k shares traded a day).  This is a stock you want to accumulate when it’s asleep — its just too damn hard to pick up when it’s moving hard one way or another.    I reserve the right to add to EXK in more calm seas.

I also added some non-Jacksonian Core gold positions, some old, and some new, whose entries are also found in the previous post.    You’ll recall I purchased a beginning position in NGD just before yesterday’s close.    That stock actually held up well, so I decided to also add its “brothers” NG and NXG.  All of these have been showing favourable (sic) patterns in the last few weeks, and their purchase is part of a diversification strategy in the smaller miners.   It’s best to take this shotgun approach with these smaller guys, as you usually cannot pick up their exposure via the GDX ETF, which only purchases the larger cap issues  but you want to have a position in these flyers for when they start to run.   Some of them will double and triple, but in these cycle peaks, you never know which.     

In that regard, I also added to my position in ANV at the end of the day.    Like with SLW and EGO, I now have a full position in this name, and expect to see it run to at least the 61.8% fib retrace at $6.72 before breaking out to new 52-week highs. 

I also took this opportunity to hedge out my largest (and non-Jacksonian) position in UPS, and to begin a “foot in” purchase in SRS  as well. 

Non-PM Jacksonians did well and not so well today, MON was up a little less than 1% while its sister Ag play ANDE was off  4.67%.    If ANDE cannot hold above the $19.40 uptrend line here, it’s likely to fill that gap over a dollar below it.   As well, Jacksonian Core Coal play NRP (-4.89%) has been performing miserably here, even as coal operators have been consolidating.    This could be due to a (temporary) interest rate response, but I won’t recommend adding to this one until it’s back over the 38.6% retrace at $22.70.     Last, refiner TSO was largely flat–  off less than half a percent.

Without further ado, here’s the 14-Member Jacksonian Core’s performance (arranged alphabetically for your reading pleasure) for today:

ANDE — $19.79  (-4.67%)

GDX — $37.94 (-2.61%)

GLD — $91.09 (+0.42)

IAG — $9.87 (-2.66%) 

MON — $90.89 (+0.89)
 
NRP — $21.76 (-4.89%)

PAAS — $19.26 (-3.02%)

RGLD — $40.60 (-2.98%)

SLV — $13.81 (-1.49%)

SLW — $8.85 (-5.04%)

SSRI — $19.93 (-5.18%)

TBT — $49.29 (-2.08%)

TC — $7.68 (-4.00%)

TSO — $16.09 (-0.43%)

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A bloody good evening to you all!

(Warning! Extremely stupid video to follow, usher the children from the room)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teM_imSYGVs 450 300] 

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