My friend Mr. Russell was reconstituting today, just as my enemy Mrs. Pelosi was trying to reconstitute our country’s energy markets. So you can imagine it was a bit harum scarum.
I will come back later, and blog like the wind in the willows (maybe I’ll have illustrative capabilities back by then), but now it’s off to a super important pool party replete with screaming brats. Ah, parenthood.
Later.
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Back, and I’ve looked at the JCHP for today, and save for the bizarro behaviour of usually reliable Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , it looked like a general consolidation day for the PM’s, which is natural given the large moves a number of them made yesterday. Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] continues to look good here, as do a the juniors I’d mentioned earlier in the day (see last post).
I will try to find out wtf is going on with RGLD this weekend.
The other good news is that the non precious metals — Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] , as well as ag supplier The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] all look like they are uncoiling out of their bullish flags again. Keep a close eye for volume increases.
Last, be sure to keep an eye on the biotech pinless hand grenades I’ve tossed around over the last couple of weeks. A number of them did the astral elevator today, I think because of Russell Reconstitution Day. They included [[HEB]] , [[CTIC]] and ImmunoGen, Inc. [[IMGN]] .
Lastly, Fly’s chip box chomper of the future, [[ENTR]] had a nice gain today, but more important, it rose on huge (almost 16x average) volume. I did not see their name in the Russell rebalances, so this volume remains a mystery. Something to look for on Monday, however, as significant volume is usually… well… significant!
The Jackson’s on Friday:
Name/
%
Ticker
25-Jun
26-Jun
Change
Comments
ANDE
$29.95
$30.23
0.93%
Moving nicely out of the bull flag
EGO
9.39
9.40
0.11%
Consolidation day for gold
GDX
39.99
39.20
-1.98%
Ditto
GLD
92.31
92.29
-0.02%
POG broke briefly over $940, then back.
IAG
10.58
10.48
-0.95%
Consolidation day for gold
MON
75.66
75.25
-0.54%
Ditto
NRP
20.83
20.82
-0.05%
Flat again, forming bear flag?
PAAS
19.34
19.08
-1.34%
Held up at the 200 day EMA
RGLD
46.00
42.07
-8.54%
Freakish late day drop.Be prepared to cut
SLV
13.81
13.90
0.65%
Up with the POS
SLW
8.81
8.72
-1.02%
Held up at the 50 day EMA
SSRI
19.65
19.52
-0.66%
Held up at the 50 day EMA
TBT
51.03
50.84
-0.37%
Near flat today, could be done w. pull back
TC
10.31
10.44
1.26%
Like ANDE moving out of flag
TCK
15.99
16.56
3.56%
Same, looking very strong here
TZA
22.74
22.50
-1.06%
Flattish for a triple.
AVG (daily)
-0.63%
AVG (monthly)
-6.44%
AVG (inception)
15.49%
Update: The Ozzie’s get it right. Or at least their Senate does. Let’s hope our own Senate can be as astute when this criminal theft Al Gore bill comes before them. Hold your reps accountable on this one, people.
UUP is our proxy for the dollar as you recall. It’s right at make or break here hanging about it’s 61.8% retrace. Now, on my other graphing software, the 61.8% — Golden Ratio — retrace line is at $24.07. No matter, we want this sucker below $24 to feel good about the dollar not threatening this rally again.
Good thing we are in PM’s and heavy metals as they are negotiating this squall just fine today. On the gold side, [[ANV]] continues to show real nice relative strength, to the point where its making me wonder if there’s not something going on. [[PAAS]] and [[PTM]] are doing well as well, and you may want to have a sally at [[NG]] as it’s getting bootstomped for no particular reason while [[NXG]] is up. Perhaps it’s the “X” chromasone?
I like [[TIE]] and [[TC]] is just insane. I may sell the calls after this posting, in fact. In the meantime, the golds and silvers are hanging tough, and [[TBT]] is right at my intermediate sell level (high of about 59.50 today). I may sell the calls on that one as well, depending on what the dollar does to the close.
On other crazy stuff, [[ENTR]] is finally breaking out, while the [[HEB]] takes it in the shorts. Watch that one, along with [[IMGN]] as I think they’ll both “be baaahhk” like Arnold. Another Fly buy is [[OVTI]] which I’ve had for a while now, and is finally perking.
Queries welcome.
Here’s a great theme for today. Whether we’re talking the dollar or the market, you gotta love this humble boy from Northern Florida. Fantastic rendition, too, the way he gets the blase LA crowd to sing the whole first verse (Hat tip to Boomer):
Update: Funkier version from Hamburg, sorry about the “non-embed” you can see that one on Youtube.
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Update: Sorry, no calls to sell on TC! Therefore I am selling one third of my position here at $11.21. I am risking that I won’t get the better price to reload.
Update: Bot 1k more [[GDX]] @ $40.88 for shizzles and gizzles. Hanging on the 61.8% fib.
Update: Re: [[UUP]]– she ended up at $24.00 on the dot. Isn’t that just like a woman?
Sometimes it’s not about the money, it’s about the high. The high you get from being right when everyone else (or most everyone) is wrong. Let me tell you it can be a heady thrill, as good or better than any triumphs on the athletic or academic plain.
But I implore you to forswear this high. Do it today. For it will turn you into a ravening frog-eyed hermit, cursing the clouds and the crowds for not bending to your superior will and your knowing…. your knowing.
This is a game of accepting defeat after all, shaking the Fly’s hand in a firm, but gentlemanly fashion and then moving on. It’s not a game of self incineration. We must keep foremost in mind that a mass of blackened carbon cannot sally forth ever again. He can only sit, and smolder and fume and smoke….
And curse his fate…
On alternating Mondays.
___________________________
It looks like no one will be able to keep these commodities down for very long. Is it the dollar? Is it our interest rates? Looming inflation? I don’t know. “KISS” — not the rock group but the acronym — instructs me to “K-eep I-t S-imple, S-tupid,” and so I will.
Just follow the trend til it ends.
Is that instruction really that tough to follow? Yes, the Devil Dog is in the details, but then you’ve many friends here (and on The PPT) with whom to consult. We shall not leave your side despite your sweaty palms and mild B.O.. The bio-techs are still working. Don’t ask me why, I blame CA for starting the conversation with a grainy haus frau in a smoke-filled bar in Washington Heights three weeks ago.
You know how the flutter of the butterflies wings in a crowded tavern leads to hurricanoes in the porcelain room? I like [[HEB]]-rews here, and First Phillip-ians [[MO]]. Another stealthy bio-tech I’ve been mentioning is [[SVA]] which had another solid day. Last [[BIOS]] could take off at any time. Or not. I like it in the low 4′s.
As well, the commodites are working their tiny little mono-muscles . General Jackson’s [[TC]] rebounded with great vigour (sic) and newly acquired [[TIE]] (non-Jackson) looks good too. Even the PM’swere not pulling back with the vigour I expected from this mornings sad state of affairs. My goodness, the worst hit Jacksonian was our highest flyer thus far, Mr. Anderson [[ANDE]], down a little over 3%. By the way, if he could see his way to $28.40 tomorrow, or close thereby, he would offer an excellent entry for all those seeking his agrarian charms.
Let’s look at the rest of the Jacksonian Core Holdings list, with attendant commentary:
Name
8-Jun
% Change
Comments
ANDE
$ 29.12
-3.09%
Finally backing off a hot run. $28.40 entry.
EGO
9.27
0.32%
Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
GDX
41.30
-0.07%
Got our $40 target and bounced at support.
GLD
93.56
-0.16%
Hung on 20-day and 78% long term fib.
IAG
10.21
1.49%
Beautiful hammer off support, could be ready again
MON
82.79
0.99%
Still battling.
NRP
23.93
-2.33%
Still struggling with that $24 line.
PAAS
21.50
-2.63%
Another long tail doji, good EOD volume.
RGLD
44.10
0.05%
Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SLV
14.76
-1.67%
Tested $14.50 early, then up the rest of the day.
SLW
10.18
-1.83%
Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SSRI
22.13
-1.03%
Yet another hammer doji, this time on the 38% fib.
TBT
57.29
0.61%
$60 next stop.
TC
9.74
-1.81%
$10.96 near term target.Another hammer doji.
TSO
15.68
0.77%
Wretched, but alive for today.
AVG
-0.69%
Let’s hang together shall we? I’d rather not hang separately.
I got good news and bad news on the market front, ovah heah. The good news is, I’m going to show you my Russell 2000 chart ($RUT), which I’ve been using to parse the market since before the first bank meltdowns of late 2007. You see the Russell, even more than the [[SPY]] in my opinion, gives you a better view of the “overall market” than any other index. You can also check it’s volume using [[IWM]] it’s ETF.
I find that the Fibonacci retracement lines work very well in analyzing the Russell as well. Take a look at where where we found ourselves this morning:
As you can see we are bumping up against one of the stronger Fibonacci “Golden Ratio” (inverse) lines at 38.2% (the other being the actual Golden Ratio of 61.8%). I expect that means at least some sort of rest stop here. That said the “good news” is that 13-34 week cross which implies further bullishness should it continue. As I have attested, and I think even Woodshedder has agreud (sic) — the 13-34 week “golden cross” is one of the most significant bullish or bearish indicators out there.
Let me know what you think, but don’t be surprised if I disregaurd (sic) your thoughts in a cavalier, dismissive way, whilst inserting snuff up my nose, all atop my “knee-controlled” white charger.
One other point — some of these biotech unpinned hand grenade small craps are pulling back a little today, and since I sold off 2/3rds of my [[HEB]] -brews yesterday, I may dip back into the Red Sea to rescue some more pedestrians today. I also like [[IMGN]] here (thanks Henry!), but will not add more as I am “full up” to the brim with it. [[SVA]] also bounced nicely off it’s trendline today, but I’d wait to see if it drops back to $2.90 before taking a chance on any of it. The last insanity is [[CTIC]] which has been a darling of The PPT, along with [[BEE]]. I think the latter looks a lot more promising, but have not gotten any yet.
As always, I recommend you stay as far away from the above paragraph as you would a Mossad Hit Squad with your name at the top of their list. There’s no question your purchase of any of the above will warrant a quick waterboarding, coupled with a full-torso Obama campaign sticker “body bind”, finally finished off in a late night rowboat assisted drop into The Great Salt Lake, where you will bob for hours, your pitiless cries ignored by disinterested Mormon seagulls.
On the precious metal front, as I suspected, more pullback, but the metal rustlers cannot disguise all — [[PTM]] looks strong here, comparatively. Slow and steady wins the race, old boy. Best to you all.
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Update: I bot 2k more HEB to take with me across the unpaved Red Sea @$3.10.
