‘Twas a rough day in the trenches for most of the Jacksonian Core,  but then we turned lemons into lemonade by using the retrenchment here to pick up some final positions in the silver miners, including AGQ (Double Silver ETF), PAAS,  and SSRI.   Those buys were featured in my previous post,  if you want entry points.

   I did not add to my “favourite” (sic) silver miner – SLW, but only because I already have what I consider to be a “full position” in SLW, at least for now.    I may augment that position from time to time with options purchases (or sales in hedging situations), but I will likely not add any more equity in that name.

I also eschewed adding more EXK  (-5.89%) today, due mostly to it’s volatility and low float (less than 150 k shares traded a day).  This is a stock you want to accumulate when it’s asleep — its just too damn hard to pick up when it’s moving hard one way or another.    I reserve the right to add to EXK in more calm seas.

I also added some non-Jacksonian Core gold positions, some old, and some new, whose entries are also found in the previous post.    You’ll recall I purchased a beginning position in NGD just before yesterday’s close.    That stock actually held up well, so I decided to also add its “brothers” NG and NXG.  All of these have been showing favourable (sic) patterns in the last few weeks, and their purchase is part of a diversification strategy in the smaller miners.   It’s best to take this shotgun approach with these smaller guys, as you usually cannot pick up their exposure via the GDX ETF, which only purchases the larger cap issues  but you want to have a position in these flyers for when they start to run.   Some of them will double and triple, but in these cycle peaks, you never know which.     

In that regard, I also added to my position in ANV at the end of the day.    Like with SLW and EGO, I now have a full position in this name, and expect to see it run to at least the 61.8% fib retrace at $6.72 before breaking out to new 52-week highs. 

I also took this opportunity to hedge out my largest (and non-Jacksonian) position in UPS, and to begin a “foot in” purchase in SRS  as well. 

Non-PM Jacksonians did well and not so well today, MON was up a little less than 1% while its sister Ag play ANDE was off  4.67%.    If ANDE cannot hold above the $19.40 uptrend line here, it’s likely to fill that gap over a dollar below it.   As well, Jacksonian Core Coal play NRP (-4.89%) has been performing miserably here, even as coal operators have been consolidating.    This could be due to a (temporary) interest rate response, but I won’t recommend adding to this one until it’s back over the 38.6% retrace at $22.70.     Last, refiner TSO was largely flat–  off less than half a percent.

Without further ado, here’s the 14-Member Jacksonian Core’s performance (arranged alphabetically for your reading pleasure) for today:

ANDE — $19.79  (-4.67%)

GDX — $37.94 (-2.61%)

GLD — $91.09 (+0.42)

IAG — $9.87 (-2.66%) 

PAAS — $19.26 (-3.02%)

RGLD — $40.60 (-2.98%)

SLV — $13.81 (-1.49%)

SLW — $8.85 (-5.04%)

SSRI — $19.93 (-5.18%)

TBT — $49.29 (-2.08%)

TC — $7.68 (-4.00%)

TSO — $16.09 (-0.43%)

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A bloody good evening to you all!

(Warning! Extremely stupid video to follow, usher the children from the room)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teM_imSYGVs 450 300] 

Money is power, and in that government which pays all the public officers of the states will all political power be substantially concentrated.    — Andrew Jackson

What a great day for the Jacksonian Portfolio, no?   I felt like the Great Man re-born, breaching the lines of villainous (shorting) Redcoats with my trusty white charger, cutlass slashing down upon their ridiculous feathered bonnets, calling for my Horsed Kentucky Rifleman Sharpshooters to release another volley of musket upon their pasty-pale visages.  Triumph!

And what’s more it’s a triumph over fear, as well, for with our solid Jacksonian Core Portfolio, we know that these wins are not only for today, but will be substantiated again tomorrow.  For when the fickle winds of Washington change course again, and blow against our frail banking system’s walking corpse, rather than hold it aloft as it has, we will be prepared.    Hard money and assets will be our stores of value, no matter what our increasingly Zimbabwean central government  shall make of our paper printed with the General’s startled masque.

Today’s “core” wins — “early” wins, I call them — include PAAS (+6.82%), GDX (+5.97%), SLW (+ 3.03%) RGLD (+3.93%%), NRP (+3.68%), SLV (+2.89%) GLD (+1.46%)  and newcomer to the Core Portfolio: SSRI (+6.62).  

Of the Core that was involved in earnings tonight, we have TSO giving back strong wins from today (currently – 1.52% @ $17.53 in AH) and Mr. Anderson — ANDE — up large after hours (currently +13.95% @ $20.10 in AH).  You will recall that I sold the $17.50 June calls on TSO two days back, as I felt it was getting overextended.   I will likely close that position tomorrow, at profit.    I still retain my unhedged position in ANDE.     Other Core holdings that were down slightly today include MON (-0.88%) which needed a breather, and TC (-0.91%), whose 7 cent pullback today was also not unexpected after many days of gains.

Other non-core silver and gold plays I am currently invested in include EGO (+3.69), ANV (+3.82%),  and EXK (+4.85%).    Last, recent recommendation ATHR (-1.16%) was also off a bit.    On the oil front, I bailed on all but a stub of my triple earl ERX (+10.71%) at just under $34.00, as that was where a significant fibonacci line lay, and I’ve learned to respect the fibs on these fast moving triple ETF’s.  

 I am still bullish on our friend Earl, however, as I have been since Fly cursed his name.   My two “core holdings”  — which may soon be nominated to the Jacksonian Core — are PBR (+2.93%)  and OXY (6.66%) , the best of two nations, in my humblest opinions.

I must admit to revelling in some of Fly, RC and CA’s crazy picks today (among them SONS, and FLOW), and I even jumped into one of my own (ABK)  — it is fun to make hay while the SONS is shining, after all.   But make no mistake, these discretionary picks are a tiny portion of my portfolio.   For like the leaves of summer, these high flyers will soon fade, as will our newly reinvigorated “saved” banks.   We must always be girded with our Jacksonian Core to withstand the coming tsunami, and we will continue to build on that foundation as we jog onward.   My best to you all, and keep building! 

Important: Hat tip and my thanks to Trader Caddy and to Chanci for the suggestions on SSRI and EXK,  respectively.  

Aside: If I could tell you to get into one sector in the coming weeks, my friends, silver would lessen my worries for you and yours.

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UPDATE: I decided it would be almost hypocritical of me to urge silver on my blogreaders w/out taking at least a small position in AGQ (Proshares Double Silver) .

Or that could just be me rationalizing my inner Yukon Cornelius.  

You make the call.     That said, I’m picking up some AGQ here @ $42.87.

UPDATE:  Picked up a little more at $ 43.55  

Caveat:  VERY VERY VOLATILE!  If you buy any of this crazy stuff, there’s a 73% probability you will be drafted to become intergalactic Herald to a very large planet eating sub-god, with little sense of humor, and you may lose your pension.

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Whaddaya know? Ag’s starting to heat up again.    I was going to hold off on announcing Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) (PPT: Buy) as a Jacksonian Core Holding stock until we got a little pullback, but as you’ll see from my charts, I want you all to be looking at it this week, in case it wants to do a Clark Kent into Superman “up, up and away” on us.

I’ve got some other ags I’ll be talking about as the week progresses, but this is one of my favorite holdings, and a company that I believe can be called “the GOOG of the agricultural world.”   MON has anywhere from a three to five year lead on many of their genetically modified competitors in a number of different seed products, and in my mind, they are the biggest dog in what I believe will become not only the critical space in modern agriculture, but a highly lucrative one as well.  

 The difference between MON and a lot of these hot ag stocks (including MOS, which I also like) is their high level of quality “intellectual property.”   Not only does MON own a stable of well known brands,  but they also hold  multiple patents on their genetically modified seed technology and are continuously working to create new forms of insect and weed-resistent, as well as drought-resistant crops which will bring yields up and global food prices down.     As global protectionism raises its ugly head again during this recession, you want to own the top dog in the agricultural space, as it’s the also-rans who will suffer most from loss of global market share.

As I mentioned, the charts are looking portentous, with the daily chart showing a breakout of both the short term downtrend line and the consolidation zone formed by the price-volume bars.   We may get a pullback here on lighter volume,  as we are slightly overbought.   But, with the ags running, it’s also as likely that MON could take off this week, which is why I wanted to get this pick out for your consideration:

The weekly show similar portent, with a low volume lift off out of the consolidation zone accompanied by the price crossing the 13 and 34 week moving average in a brisk fashion.   The weekly chart corroborates the daily’s favorable oscillators as well, and shows our significant support and resistance areas for your  target and stop setting.    For my part, I will continue to hold MON in my core portfolio and trade around it using the targets indicated.  

Monsanto remains my second largest portfolio holding.  

Caveat: If you choose to purchase this stock ,  you’re in deep peril of being served Frankenfood Franks n’ Beans for your next Thanksgiving Dinner.   You could also lose your food allowance.   Be vigilant and opportunistic.

UPDATE:  MON and fellow Aggie, ANDE off to the races, along with the sector.    Look for a pullback to $87.80-ish for MON.    Look for ANDE to bull-flag here ($17.65) but don’t wait too long… I think this is the move we were expecting.

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No, The Andersons, Inc. (NASD: ANDE)   (PPT: “Buy”) is not your next door neighbors’ lemonade stand gone corporate, but rather a supplier and servicer to the farm industry, with a number of different agricultural lines.   I ran across them last night while going over some of my old charts, and they look to be making something of a comeback here.   I imagine they got hammered like they did as a result of the ethanol backlash, as they had made ethanol services a large part of their marketing pitch back when that was the cool thing to do.   Ah well — live by the corn likker jug, die by the corn likker jug, that’s what Pappy always used to say.  

Note that this chart is still in “setting up” phase, as price has not yet escaped the “zone of torpor” boxed by the price-volume bar metric above.   That said, I believe the “Moo stox” will be starting to heat up again with the glimmer of the inflationary hortex on the horizon,  so it’s better we put this one on our watch screen sooner rather than later.  

Strong volume is one indicator of possible future activity that I find particularly useful, and ANDE traded over 2.8x its average volume yesterday.  It was still above average today even with a decent pullback.  As well, the stock has managed to leap above its 8, 20 and 50-day EMA’s in a single bound, and was able to stay well above those markers even after today’s pullback.   That action is encouraging, with the caveat that it would not be unusual to see ANDE  pull back all the way to its 50-day EMA ($14.56) with additional “digestion” in the next few days. 

  I don’t think that will do any damage to our “of interest” thesis, however, as I believe that unless the huge volume spike was only a fluke, we will see a continuation out of the congestion zone, and perhaps “dance the jimmy” all the way to the 200-day EMA at $22+.

Trade-wise, I think our best bet is to wait until ANDE makes it out over yesterday’s close ($16.19) to take the lesser risk shot at this one.   Besides getting us in closer to the top of the congestion zone, $16.20 just happens to be the residence of the short term 61.8% Fibonacci retrace line— my strongest fib for support/resistance.  Funny how these things work out, no?   Again, no, not really.  

Also important — earnings are scheduled to be released on May 6th, so we may have a nice little run here where we can play amidst the “Sentient Programs” and then either hit “the EMP button,” or stay on, depending on our risk tolerance and affinity for Wachowski Brothers metaphors.   If the market holds up, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mr. Anderson make a nice move to the 200-day EMA along with every other beaten down bird in the House of Morpheus.

So keep Mr. Anderson in mind tomorrow and next week, especially if you feel the urge to take the blue pill at some point whilst consulting with your wisest urinal shadows…

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