[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA8QrOAghZ0 450 300]

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I started selling some of my QLD horde today, only to turn around and plow those winnings into more AG, SLW and EXK.

Why silver?  Mostly because the happy silver mining family was bludgeoned like a prize veal on the night before the St. Anthony Festival these last few weeks, and I like the reversion to the mean theory — no matter how temporary that reversion might be.

You know I started accumulating the PM ETF’s,  GDX, GDXJ and SIL last week in order to capture some of the rebound that I saw coming from that sector.  Well this week I will concentrate more on individual names like the above in silver and RGLD, AUY and ANV in the gold mining sector.  I might also dabble in those insane brothers XG and XRA.

Just to give you an example of what I’m seeing here, and why I think there’s still a lot of room in these PM names, here’s my markup of the EXK weekly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Note how last week the price bounced off the long term trend line only to leave that long tail in a hammer?  And note also how most of the stochastics are headed north once again?  I am seeing that in a lot of these names.   Again, it can all change on a dime in no time, and believe me, I will be ahead of you, elbowing you in the chin as I run for the exits if it does.   But right now, the dollar is on our side, and the momentum is coming back to these names.

Let’s have some fun while we wait for the deluge, shall we?

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD5nG2jEVgc&feature=related 450 300]

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The Futures markets in both stocks and commodities is telling us we’re in store for a candy-coated day tomorrow in the markets, all Yom Kippur expiations aside.   Many a times I’ve heard “Sell on The (Jewish) New Year and buy back on Yom Kippur” as tradition dictated that many of our Tribal brethren would be out of the market for that week.

I think that may be a bit of an old fashioned play (not many of my Hebraic trader pals took off for the entire week of “the Holidays” and Yom Kippur fell on Saturday this year anyway), but it’s still useful as a historical marker and perhaps an “excuse” for people to come out guns a blazing on that first day after All Sins Have Been Elided.

What better time to start stacking venalities up again for next year, nu?

Coincidentally or not, the current bullish outlook for the market synchs with some longer term market work I was updating this weekend.  For instance, this following SPX chart looks at the Fibonacci levels of the last four years, beginning with the October highs of 2007 as “the high Fib” and the March lows of 2009 as “the low Fib.”

Note how we launched all the way back to the 61.8% retrace in April ’10,  before selling off hard to the 38.2% fib line in July of that same year?  Then we had one more run to 61.8% before retracing briefly once more and finally breaking the bonds of the golden ratio (again, 61.8%) in November of ’10.

Note however, that we never bounced all the way back to the October ’07 highs?  That’s because we’re in a bear market cycle, my skepticons, and the bad news is we ain’t done yet.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t still have fun times, even if they grow increasingly scantier, right?  So let’s look at where this current selloff has based since this summer shall we?  Well, I’ll be kippered (no Hebrew) if it isn’t the 50% fib line providing support!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I think that given the current position of the weekly stochastics (i.e., “oversold”), we will likely get a nice “Euroliquidity” blast here, quite possibly taking us all the back to that 61.8% golden ratio one last time at $1227 on the above chart.

As a result, I plan to continue with my large QLD position and perhaps even “enhance” it with a little TNA, here.  I will skinny my SKFlles to a mere nominal position as I still do not trust the banks, but will also eschew all other negative-minded ETF’s for now.  I will likely also continue adding back to my silver and gold miner hordes, mostly through GDX, GDXJ and SIL, with opportunistic forays into SLW, EXK, AG and RGLD.

I reserve the right to change this direction on the turn of a dime, however, if things do not play out as Signor Fibonacci has directed.

In addition, later this week, I will attenuate this chart so you can see some more specific targets for the upcoming “deluge.”  And yes, folks, it’s still coming.  And time is growing short.

My best to you all.

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Cocktail Party Acts of Levitation Aside, You Suck

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… So this won’t be long.

My damn Junkees left 423 guys on base tonight, mostly because they just didn’t feel like running them very hard.  They weren’t very stellar in the field, either, despite being at home.

Oh yeah, and I really, really dislike A-Roid.

I don’t care how damn good he is in the regular season, the guy is a choker.  Plain and simple.  You gotta perform on the big stage, Gayroid, or you’re nothing to me.  Your 600 home runs mean so much cow shit.  Go screw.

You suck.

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There, that is that.   As for today, I’m disappointed about that too.

You see I tried to get cute.  I went and bot 10k shares of EXK and 8k shares of AG at middle of the day prices.   Then I doubled my order at a substantial discount to my market order.   I did the same for AVL.   I got zero AVL as a result and not filled on my second half of the other two.  I have a feeling that will cost me in the morning.

Meanwhile, I kept my QLD and the GDX and GDXJ that I bought yesterday.

That is all.   I leave you now, grumbling into the night.

Go (NY Football) Giants.

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Addenda:  I’m pretty damn disappointed in this guy too (hat tip to DGM) :

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfMjbS0oWrE 450 300]

(If you squint, he looks like Arod)

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Sometimes I don’t know what’s wrong with you people.   Hootin’ and hollerin’ like a bunch of purple Kool-Aid grape apes, rooting on a man’s demise in slo-mo barely contained rage.

I speak, of course, of last night, when there were more than a few on these boards who were ready to spit on a broken wheelchair in their haste to condemn we beknighted silver bulls in our darkest hour (that dark hour being about 3 am last night).   What an ugly display… and most ungentlemanly.

But these ungainly thugs were left grasping at phantoms by an hour or so before the market open this morning, when silver had fought it’s way back to just under $30 and ounce.   More important, the silver trend line held today in AGQ.   Not, as I had thought, at first support, but rather exactly at the long term trend line.

Sometimes when these things work so perfectly, it’s almost like a thing of magick (sic).  This morning, right around 10:00 am, I stood in awe as the candle bottom stopped right at the rising trend line that’s marked this bull since the ’09 Recovery, hovered there for about fifteen minutes, and then slowly — inexorably — made it’s climb through second support, all the way to that first support line.   Note the change from yesterday’s AGQ weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The bounce off that uptrend line is very strong ju-ju, especially given that we are still extremely oversold in the PM and silver sectors specifically.  We might get some “stall” at that first support line we stopped at today, or we may not.  Silver is up this evening again, although we know from last night how great the overnight swings can be in this sport.

I do think that uptrend line will be tested at least once more, unless the dollar begins to break here significantly.   If it does, I will likely supplement by adding more EXK, SLW and AG to the port.   One thing is for sure… you have your line in the sand for all major stops, whether mental or fixed.

Best to you all, and try not to let the hatahs hate too much on you.  It’s hateful.  😉

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L12072ZZP4&feature=related 450 300]

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Geez, a guy goes road trippin’ for one day and lookee here-–  the market melts down like a fat guy at a Bette Midler Film Festival.   I’m going to be honest here… I don’t really give a cut quid about the overall market.  I’m heavily invested in the dread instruments SKF and TZA, so I’m well protected against the whims Mr. Dow and his Standard and increasingly Poor friend.

What I’m not protected against is the whims of the $HUI, gash damnit to the hezzy.

So I took some egregious blow to the head after all today, my “bad ETF’s” not withstanding, especially at the end of the day when the whole market dove for the subterranean depths.  That said, it wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been, and the $HUI remains in that channel we described yesterday.     Check it:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note, we haven’t even broken through the 20-day EMA here, which has been recent support.  I guess I’ll just have to eat some sammitches and wait to see what kind of follow-through we get tomorrow.   My major problem, as always, is the dollar, which is breaking up back to those fib levels we talked about last time.  Look at how damn close we are again:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow will probably be do or die for both the dollar and the $HUI, so let’s try to pay some attention.    I’m going to be out again tomorrow morning, but I’ll check in and make sure the markets are behaving– and you are too.  If the coast is clear, I’d say the hot silvers are your best bet — AG and EXK and even MVG.  Otherwise, you can chill and have your girlfriend make you a sammitch.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dzpTFQR0Tg&feature=related 450 300]

Whatever happened to gay rap anyway?

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Today was kind of interesting, no? False alarm breakouts all over, and almost none of them held…

Save for the PM miners of course. Sort of like a… a… PM Dawn, no? I took my cue off the Baby $HUI earlier today, as it had gracefully touched the bottom of it’s trading channel and then sprung up like a coked out stallion loose in the mare barn.  True, it sold off some at the end of the day after that initial hop up.. but I still like the pin action.  Note:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Despite the long wick in that last candle, I like how there’s still lots of room to run on the RSI and the other stochs.   This puts me in the mind that we are seeing a genuine handle breakout here.   On this action, I doubled up on my XRA and BAA positions, as noted in The PPT today, right before lunch.  I also added to EXK, AG, GDXJ and SIL.   I even bought some more RGLD, just to add to that pile.

Some other nice movers today that I own, but did not add too (much to my chagrin) included AXU, ANV, AUQ, AUY,GSS, NUGT, IAG, NXG, etc.  Keep an eye on these for further developments tomorrow.

As I type, the dollar is below $77, Gold is well over $1,810 and silver is over $40, indicating the $HUI is steering us in the right direction.   Enjoy tomorrow, as I will be “road-bound” again, and checking in from remote airport locations & scruffy hotel bar rooms.

My best to you all.

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