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What Tha…? Dollar Up, Treasuries Down?

workout 

Mandated Econ in the Schools” Mascot, 2010
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With some sense seeming to come into the market, the dollar is doing it’s flight to safety thing and breaking up over $81.00 mark with “gusto.” But somehow, investors aren’t seeing Prime, Grade-A American Securities of the longer variety as such the flight to safety instrument they used to be. [[TLT]] is case in point.

What’s going on, ovah heah?

Here’s my take, for what it’s worth. The markets still see the dollar, as the most liquid reserve currency, and the short part of the curve, as the safest port in a storm. Therefore, any kind of international unrest is going to drive dollar strength, no matter how undeserved.

In the past, this also led to good things for our longer duration U.S. bonds as well. That was before, however, the rest of the world started wising up to our gargantuan debt situation, made even more limpid this weekend with the addition of a seemingly suicidal third massive bureaucratic entitlement program.

As a result, with the markets needing a pullback (for whatever excuse they’ve decided on today, I believe it’s Greek Somali Pirates off the shorts of Delaware*), investors are soaking up zero-return dollars and dumping longer bonds. This is one reason we recommend you keep a large trunk’s worth of [[TBT]] on hand, for just such exigencies.

Another important point — thanks to this surprise breakdown in the longer US Bonds, it seems the 10-year swap spread just went negative for the first time in history.  This may seem mind boggling, but it indicates that the market is more happy with owning higher grade corporate securities than it is the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond.

God bless Barack’s America, right?

For equity investors, however, this can actually be foretelling greater gains, believe it or not.   The article I’ve linked above indicates private equity will heat up as a result (because of the non-existent debt spreads), but I contend more liquid equities will as well, as investors seek safe yield that’s going to fight incipient inflation.

Keep an eye on physical gold and silver here folks, this may be the last time you see it this cheap (and gold may get as much as $50-70 cheaper) in a long while.  As soon as this dollar peaking is done, we should be heading back down with a vengeance.

I’m looking at the usual suspects in the PM markets on pullbacks — Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] and [[SVM]] for a start — but also keeping an eye on my LED babies, Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] .  

Veeco is an exciting company with it’s hand in many sweet honey pots.  I shall develop more on it in future postings.   For now, I will be adding slowly on dips.    Keep an eye on Monsanto Company [[MON]] as well.   Ags will be heroes again soon.

All the best, Jake.

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Breaking the Rules

troll

Please do not Feed!
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It’s been that kind of week-end, where rules, and their breaking seem to be dominating the conversation.  So I’m going to take this opportunity to break the rules and “feed the troll” as is so many times advised against.  I am hoping the attention I’m feeding this poor guy will serve as ameliorative to our overall discussions, rather than just a sop to his ego problems.

First let’s define “a typical internet blog troll.”   We are not just talking about someone who brings a disagreement, for we have many honorable members of that tribe on my more partisan site.  I would point out Bruce “Juicyfruit” as one good example and former Employee 8, now “Teahouse on the Tracks” as another.   These are gentlemen who can carry on sometimes heated discussions without resorting to cheap ad hominum, or personal attacks on their opponents.   I don’t think it coincidental that both are members of The PPT, either, as it is a repository of outstanding gentlemen.

Not so the case with the ad hominem Trolls that we’ve accumulated under our iBC.com bridge.   As an example, note this screed I received on my last post regarding the threat of Obamacare.   For your benefit, I’ve bolded all the extraneous ad hominem nastiness that can be disregareded by anyone seeking logical argument.  I’ll have to admit, it pares the piece down quite a bit:

Jake,

Just one word – why? What was your point with this post? It is just one long partisan fluff piece that still does not answer the question “who are you, what do you believe in, and how do we get there”. It’s the same-ol-sht with you pal, attack, attack, attack – using fear mongering and a weak nexus that falls of its own weight. Let’s begin with the fear mongering:

– “…we’re cooked for a long time.”
– “…inevitable government rationing takes hold.”
– “…destroys a vital part of our economy in the process.”
– “Say goodbye to solid, high quality healthcare you’ve enjoyed…”

The last point is a hoot. The last time the WHO ranked the world systems, we (the USA in case you doubt where I am from) came in 37th behind Finland, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, etc. Your standards are pretty low my man. This statement is symptomatic of the virus that flows through your veins – make shit up, ignorant followers will believe it.

The paragraph on rationing is akin to listening to Greenspan spew on about his market philosophy. Let’s not forget the following http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oLHfKjiQew . This paragraph on your market philosophy is pure filler in an attempt to use college level transitions in your writing.

(That’s right folks, not one whit of logical reply or argument yet.  Pure “attack the person.”  Demonstrative, no? –ed.)

The very next paragraph cites an article from The Medicus Firm, which is a national physician search firm (A NATIONAL PHYSICIAN SEARCH FIRM!), is frequently cited by right wingers to support their healthcare position especially when it comes to the claim that doctors will flee our system once the bill is passed. Bill O’Reilly is one such Medicus Fan. This same argument is being used by the right when it comes to “too big to fail”. Jake – you really need to stop watching Fox. Read a book or two – mix it up a bit. Remember, the healthcare industry has paid over 200 million to lobby against the bill. Don’t get suckered into their propaganda. BTW, the survey that the Medicus Firm conducted has already been found to be unscientific. Dude, look behind the curtain every now and then.

The price fixing follow-up paragraph to the Medicus smoke-n-mirrors is another weak attempt to draw market talk/conditions/beliefs into the health care discussion so that you don’t appear to be totally political with your post (or so that you can show creative paragraph transitions – I haven’t figured it out yet). The nexus is weak and you put no meat on the bones. Just relying on the feeble minded to take your leap of logic and say “’ummmm…yeah, that’s right.”

(LOL.  Certainly makes the response easier doesn’t it?  One wonders if the troll even realizes he’s making it difficult to ascertain whether he’s really even got an argument yet?  There’s no mention of support for socialized medicine, yet, fwiw. — ed.)

You then move back to political attacks with your falling rock metaphor that just crashes to earth. If a rock falls in the forest and no one is there, does it make a sound? You seem puzzled by the notion that we just don’t understand that an unfettered free market is the way to go. Please – spare me with this free-market crap. In case you forgot already – see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oLHfKjiQew .

The remainder of your article deals with patronizing “hope” – the audacity! However, it could only possibly be understood by “…those of you (that) understand rational market systems…” That is, for those of us that don’t drink from Jake’s cup-o-cool aid, then, well you are just not understanding, advocates of rational, free market systems. Lol – what a hoot.

(That’s right, save for that little unbolded bit above, we’re still doing about .050 out of  1.000 on the “repliable argument” scale.  Don’t act surprised, this is actually a decent ratio for most internet trolls. — ed.)

The post was a fair attempt at composing an argument with college level structure that would have gotten you a B- in English; however, I am certain your poly sci professor would have given you a C- due to lack of non-partisan supporting facts, lack of argumentative depth, and lack of a coherent nexus throughout the write up. However, with that said, I am certain there are many out there that just say “agreud!”.

And that’s pretty much all there is folks.  Amazing, no?   

First, I’d like to thank Alvari, whom I’ve affectionately dubbed “Lungsac” due to an early misreading of his name, for giving me such a great example of exactly what’s behind most trollish arguments — ironically, ” a lot of expelled hot air.”

As a sop, and a “thank you,” I will now address the very few addressable arguments he provided in contradiction… 

First, his argument that medical personel will not exit the industry upon imposition of price capitation.  Note, he doesn’t really have an argument against that statement, only a weak attack on the polling source I provided:

The very next paragraph cites an article from The Medicus Firm, which is a national physician search firm (A NATIONAL PHYSICIAN SEARCH FIRM!), is frequently cited by right wingers to support their healthcare position especially when it comes to the claim that doctors will flee our system once the bill is passed.

Note, it’s hard for him to even get a partially data-based statement out without referring reflexively to presumably evil  “right wingers,” or worse, the Left’s most hated bogeyman, “Fox News.” 

  I have no knowledge of this being “used by right wingers,” for the record.  I simply took the first article on the subject I found on Google.   The internet is replete with examples of doctor’s being at their breaking point.  I guess Google is become an arm of the nefarious Murdoch Empire,  I don’t know.  

That’s probably why he couldn’t supply anything that says doctors will be seeking to pick up more Medicare patients and other government payors as a result of this wonderful legislation.   Meanwhile, I can find many more articles on the displeasure of the provider community.  No doubt, it’s all a “right wing conspiracy” brought to you by Fox News!

Second, let’s take the World Health Organization (“WHO”)  left wing talking point put forth by M. Le Troll, which claims the US is the “37th ranked healthcare service in the world.”    First, a reasonable person might ask, “What is the WHO?”   Not many will be surprised to find this fraying crutch of the left is the largely anti-American United Nations’ health advocacy group with a strong predisposition to socialized medicine “for all my friends.”  

Quelle suprise,” no?   Now, is anyone surprised to find that the WHO’s criteria for a decent health care system mandates a socialized medicine diktat?  I quote CATO’s evisceration of this leftist fallacy:

So what of the United States placing 37th – behind Slovenia – in the WHO rankings?  WHO rankings result from an index of five health-related statistics: health level, health distribution, responsiveness, responsiveness distribution and financial fairness. Only health level and responsiveness, Whitman writes, are justifiable measures of a health system. The remaining rankings, he argues, fail to take into account differences in health outcomes not explained by spending or literacy, and instead attribute them to health care performance, creating a fertile ground for demagoguery and selective citation.

The WHO health care ranking system does not escape ideology,” concludes Whitman. “On the contrary, it advances ideological assumptions under the guise of objectivity. Those interested in objective measures of health system performance should look elsewhere.”

In closing, I welcome sensible argument, even from the hard left.  But if all the trolls can bring is envious ad hominem, I have no interest in responding.

Be forewarned, proponents of government health care– your assumptions and your emotional arguments will be challenged at every juncture.  Gird your loins for further demolition.  

Best to you all, even the misguided Leninists.

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Update:  Can you imagine  Barack Obama had been delivering speeches like this as Congresscritter?  Here’s a follow up… did he deliver any?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwk1aHU-pms 450 300]

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Endure My Rectitude!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMEe7JqBgvg 450 300]
Joe at the Bridge
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Whatta day on the site today, no?  
I am thinking of declaring March 15th the “International Day of the Troll” what with deluge of Troll-bags we got on the site today.   Heck, it seems it all started with “Lung Sac” Alvari having a Jungian flame out and almost getting his ass kicked off the site by M. le Fly (thank me later, Lung Sac).   
_
But then, almost like they were called with a silent dog whistle,  a whole chorus of “under-bridge dwellers” rolled out, a large part of them subsequently setting their sites on “le Docteur” himself.    
_
Woodrow?  Danny?  RC?  CA?  Did someone advertise free goat
Heck, it got so that even Purdy felt left out, and laspsed back into his trollish ways.   Unfortunately, his poor behaviour (sic)  was prompted by an avalanche from  “Joe” Blahgs  — one of our dimmest commentators, and most — coincidentally? —  most left wing.   Purdy’s libertarian positivity was mostly lost in the wash.  Pity.
 
 I do have to thank Joe, however, for pushing his brain to burnout levels and coming up with our awesome  title for this post.   Isn’t it postively Cartmanian? 
Coincidentally, or maybe not,  today’s badinage even lured out our site’s most enduring — and endearing — troll, “Scum Bucket Bitchez” who looked like Nikola Tesla playing amongst the science fair attendees with her commentary versus much of today’s array.  
 But seriously, she’s been gone for weeks, maybe even months… and she picks  today to show up?  Kind of spooky, no?
If this marks some kind of market change, I’m naming the new indicator “Troll Dressage.”
Last, but not least, I have to pay special homage to this guy, who is approaching true genius in the rolls of Trolldom here (pushing 91, 92 IQ points, at least).   Tell me you don’t find this at least slightly amusing?
Greg the Certified Personal Trainer says:

Hey Jakey,

So this is the blog you tell me so much about. I just wanted to come by and say hi to you and your friends. I’m glad you enjoyed dinner last night, I told you I could cook a good meal that was healthy.

Call me and we will reschedule the training session you missed this morning. I have a bunch of new glute work outs using kettle balls that we can try out together to really firm things up.

I went to the local pawn shop and bought a bunch of gold and silver like you said, but they were all out of guns. This economy thing really is a bummer!

Take care and talk to you soon. xo

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I quite sincerely bow to that kind of talent.   Kudos, M. Le Trol, and you are welcome, any time.

And so too are the rest of you.   Please remember to bring your best game, however, whether it be with regard to the markets or your love for Nancy Pelosi.   I count myself perhaps second only to M. Le Fly in suffering fools gladly.  

Do your homework, earn your goat meat.   That’s all I can ask.

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Market commentary to come….  hold all tickets.

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Liveblogging the Bowl

Manning

Whodat?

A Really, Really Good Football Player vs. A City’s Karma

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That’s the way I see this Bowl, btw.   As I’ve mentioned, I think the Vikings should be playing in the game, but for the asteroid-like karma of the City of New Orleans.   Let’s see if that’s enough to beat probably the greatest QB in the game, and maybe… ever.

Picking up after Manning just took the Colts 95+ yards with a mixture of passing and clutch running from Addai.   Already looking kind of bleak for the Aints, but we know they have a fast strike offense, so there’s a lot to go, heah.  

Commercials thus far — kinda lame.   The Go Daddy guys need to pack it in with the exact same commercial from last year.  For that they paid $2.5mmEnd of First QuarterColts 10, Saints 0.    the rest of the game will be continued in comments.   Feel free to add your two drachmas.

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Once More Into the Breach My Friends!

oncemore

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Stepped up the buying today, in the teeth of the downdraftI see these fat white bloated English bodies piled high, but stand firm in my resolution that we are approaching an oversold bounce in the precious market.   [[GDX]] gives me more than a ray of hope with it’s action today:

gdxweek

Note the 61.8% retrace hit on this weekly chart.   That’s a very significant level, which will usually put up a ton of support from the underside (as well as resistance on top).   Now we may get another tap of this level tomorrow, but I think this is the place we should all be accumulating our PM’s of choice.

You know I have.

Today, I added another 2k of Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] at $14.03, and yet another 40 June 11’s of the same name, this time at $3.90.   Don’t ask me why I keep buying 40 contracts at a time, there’s probably some internal fibonacci mechanism at work here.  I also added 2k more of Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] below $13 and another 4k of [[EXK]] at $3.32.  Last I put on 1k more CDE at below $15-.   I think that’s it for me in that name.

I also added significantly to my [[AGQ]] net weurth (sic), with another 800 shs at $51.52, give or take.   I now have 2k shares total.   I will add, but cautiously, to this bucking bronco.   I think that the dollar — [[DXY]] may scoop to $80 here, which could some additional pressure on the PM’s.

It will all be temporary, I aver.  

On the hedging side, I dumped another 50 of my [[SPY]] puts at a nice profit, which generally means that there will be a waterfall decline tomorrow morning.

You think I’m kidding.   I’m not.   I have 100 SPY puts left, and am still “full up” with 14k [[BGZ]] and 10k [[QID]] .   This has cushioned some of my long losses these last few days, but I can tell you verily that I look forward to blowing out of these positions.

I think we approach that time.   Keep in mind silver is trading right now at one sixty seventh the price of gold.  That’s nuts, and could presage a gold drop to $1,030-ish.    Even there the POG is still well over 60x the price of silver.  

Short summary — silver is already sold.   I don’t feel it has a whole lot farther to go.  Trade accordingly.

Best to you all.

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Happy New Year!

l'ville
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From the Friendly City on the River, I bid you all well and everything good in the New Year.

I’m slightly “laid up” tonight with some kind of nasty cough/virus. Luckily the Martel’s is beating it back a bit, and I’m “up” enough to at least watch Rambling Dick’s Ball Drop.

The boys have a sleepover and all we’ve got is the two youngers, so I’m feeling very good about 2010 and the special community we’ve built here. I hope you’ll all stop for a chat in the coming decade, and perhaps some of you will join us on The PPT as well.

Whereever you may be in 2010, I give you my best, as always.

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Flash Update: The Most Eggsellent Song that Captures the Jake/Moober Conflict:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDYq8-3wta0 450 300]

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