It Burns! It Burns!

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Let me first apologize for my inability to post last night. It’s a long story, but let’s just say it involved egregious, home-wrecking (figuratively and literally) home repair arcana which prevented me– via “boy in the bubble” -style plastic sheathing– from reaching my home laptop without risking catastrophic ruin to both home and marriage.

Luckily, I’ve ingeniously derived a path to said electronic tools, and even  — bonus! — unto my very wine cellar.   Alas and alack, all my wine glasses are also encased, Young John Travolta-style, behind aforesaid egregious plastic bubble.  They mock me, even now, in light-hearted crystalline tones.   Resulting situation?  I may go “Mayberry Otis” on a bottle of 2005 Mondavi right here, right now.  

Tell no one.

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Where was I?  Oh yes, the banks.   Boy didn’t it seem like last week was the begining of the sequel to late 2008’s monster hit– Bear Stearns/Lehman II, Electric Bugaloo?   But let’s get serious — when was the last time quantitive easing was bad for banks?  Well, it’s certainly not bad for banks that have crapola bonds on their balance sheets when the ECB and Fed are acting like willing buyers in the market place.   Get on the QE II Cruise Liner, people.

For stabilisation (sic) purposes only, please. 

No folks, they are not going to let those banks die again.  “They” are stupid, and “they” are short sighted, but they are not going to make the same mistake twice.   Not in a … what? (Cups hand to ear)… Go ahead, say it with me… Not in a whaaat?

NOT IN A FREAKING ELECTION YEAR, Baby!

Come, come– I know you are desperate for some serious chart action.  You cry out for confirmation of my biases, and I will not disappoint.   Slake thy thirst on this weekly of the $BKX (the Philadelphia Bank Index):

Four out of five weeks down, sure, but where has our price found purchase, and even (dare I say it?) a phat DOJI?  That’s right, at the same 34-week EMA that’s served as mother’s comfort lo these last eleven months. 

And those were “recovery months,” which I don’t think will be fully completed until we test that 200 week EMA up there (in red) which, by golly, sure looks like it wants to at least decrease its slope, if not stop descending altogether.  Ain’t that a thing? 

Now lookee see, here, I’ve got another juicy and nutritious daily chart for you, and yes, it’s the $BKX again. 

No, it’s not pretty but in this case, it’s the 200–day EMA that’s serving as support as well as that significant support line (we’ve used it before) at just over $49.00.   I think the printing presses are winning this one, son, and they are not going to let those banks go down without a much more serious fight than we saw last week with the Greco-Spaniard panic attack. 

So prepare ye for more clack-clack-clacking that will lead to much ack-ack-ACKing.   

This market may very well be setting up for a great fall (perhaps, in the Fall?), but I think the powers that “try to be” will continue to stuff those banks so full of banque notes and letters of exchequer that you won’t be able to address the tellers for the interchange of proper monies. 

They fight the last war, that’s what they do well.   Look not ye, then, unto the burning FAZ -mobile!  And whilst ye may not wish to grab polar opposite FAS, I continue to think BBT and FITB are decent holds in this environment.

And lest we forget,  continue to look to the PM sector as your hedge to this egregiousity, as always.   

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That’s “Loin” not “Lion!” 

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We’re a little bit over a year into my tenure here, and we’ve probably had three or four “one of those days” days since I started. 

Today was one for sure.

This is life in the PM bull, friends, and we should be used to it by now.   I expect we are not fully shaken out, although that over 10% move in the $XAU index today might have scared some people off for the next decade or so.

That said, opportunities abound.   [[EXK]] was even up by the end of the day, and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] filled two large gaps from the prior month’s work.  In hindsight, I likely should have taken the opportunity last week to sell some calls, as I’ve done in the past, but frankly, I was just too busy.   That’s why I choose to play long term secular bulls like the gold and silver markets, however, and that strategy has served me well.

So buck up Cowboy, and get ready for some more bull-riding, pleasant and not so much.   The good news is those with some dry powder can still grab some great names, perhaps as early as tomorrow morning.   I’ve mentioned Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] before (I also like Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] here), and you will remember this weekly chart from a couple of days back:

Note we’ve touched that trend line today, as I’d predicted.   We may do so again tomorrow, but that mid $17’s area remains a primo area to pick up some nuggets.  

On the silver side, besides the two I’d mentioned above, I think [[PAAS]] is still one of your better bets, and riding that weekly trendline like a refusnik on the potato line.  

Feel free to stop by here, or The PPT to discuss stocks and trends.  I’m here for you during the roller coaster times.

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You bring the dough, I’ll crank me goooolden pasta machine.
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Have you just arrived at my blog after visiting the site of M. Le Docteur de Le Fly? Did you watch that video with the eerily calm-voiced man who is sketching our collective doom via Youtube videation?   Are you now in need of a mug of chamomile tea in order to calm your nerves?

Well, goodness knows, there’s other comfort foods available for your consumption, including Jake’s yummy pasta.  Remember this [[AIPC]] name from the other day’s post “Pennies for Pennes?”    Here was the original chart from 10 days ago:

And here was Friday’s close — a mere week later: 

Keep in mind, that’s a launch off support in one of the worst week and halves of trading we’ve had in 15 months.  Admit it, you didn’t touch this stock, because you thought maybe I was nuts, offering Italian carbohydrates whilst the Greeks burned the Parthenon down.   But you must keep in mind that trending stocks that display relative strength in bad markets are generally some of the safest names you can own in a storm.   

I think [[AIPC]] may take a rest/hit tomorrow, and it may be a good time to scoop some up.  Don’t wait too long, however.  There’s someone after this one, I think, and he’s/she’s/they’re no piker.

Speaking of strength in the storm, let’s not forget that [[GLD]] and [[SLV]] have been acting very cheery in the face of this Eurotardation, much to the chagrin of Mr. Samsonite Hamburg-ALL-er and his boss, a Mr. The Devil Dog.    What’s more, even the miners, which tend to wane in sympathy with the overall markets, are showing strength.  

If you watched M. le Docteur’s scary video, you may find the answer therein.  Me, I’m not going to invest in reverse-Oliver Stone type fright films, but I do know a trend when I see one.    As you can see, my plan remains the same, and so does my target for the Amex Gold Bugs Index [[HUI]] :

I like what I’ve been liking for months now, but I may not have mentioned them all, so here are some look sees:

Gold miners (Large): Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] , Newmont Mining Corporation [[NEM]] , and [[GDX]] for the grouping

Gold miners (Medium): Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , Gammon Gold, Inc. [[GRS]]

Gold miners (Small); Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , [[BAA]] , Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] , Taseko Mines Limited (USA) [[TGB]] and the catch all [[GDXJ]]

Silver miners: [[PAAS]] , [[CDE]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] , Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , [[EXK]] , [[MVG]] , [[SVM]] ,  and the catch all Apex Silver Mines Limited [[SIL]] .

Royalty plays:  Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. (US) [[TRE]] for gold, and my baby Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] for silver.

Best of the litter — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and [[PAAS]] for silver exposure, then Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] and [[GDX]] for gold glamour (sic).

Best to you all, have a nosh of rotini, get some sleep and do not let the Samsonite Hambug-ALL-ers bite!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yv0MEMyot3A 450 300]

Hercules with Lasers… Go with it!

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It’s time to dumb it down.   Way down.

I am preparing myself for this coming weeks’ action by watching the classic Golan and Globus production “Lou Ferrigno’s Hercules.”   Watching this veritable feast of the cinema has –conservatively speaking — knocked out twice as many of my brain cells as would an all weekend black out date with Johnny Walker Red.  What’s more, there’s no hangover involved… just a rough couple of days of re-remembering my children’s names.

Which is all great preparation for what this market is likely to do should the dollar plummet down the nearest ravine, which I think it should do as soon as this bit of Grecian mess is resolved.  I believe that shall happen … shortly, as the Euro is already firming against the Swiss franc (which is actually made of cheese).  Soon it’s going to be hell for the Euro-bears, and Heaven Hill for we dollar bears. 

Here’s how I see the dollar resolving.  I think Friday’s failure to reach the recent highs and attendant turnover in most stochs is significant:

Not surprising, as we’ve expected the dollar to resume it’s downward drift, and now it appears that with housing numbers up, we have another excuse to expect inflation. 

Besides some of the recent gems I’ve spoken about, like The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] the land whore and the platinum twins [[PAL]] and Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] , I think I shall add to my Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , my Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] (on a pullback to $76) and my Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] at market. 

I also like what [[MVG]] has done to her hair, and will add to Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] the gold spinner too.  Last, two smaller juniors that I believe I will be adding here are Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] .  

If I could only purchase one thing this week, however, it would likely be my “baby” — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] which is just now breaking out all over again:

My best to you all, and Merry Hercules to you, too.

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Yeah, we’re going to flush to the terlet here, with this Goldman Kabuki going on.   And now Merrill is getting into the act, too. 

Big whoop.  Like it’s a shocker that losers are going to try to blame someone else for losing money?

It’s the way of the world.   Blame someone else for your stupidity.   Tell me one thing, though… if you went to that Goldman Sachs trading room back in 2006, how many geniuses on that floor would’ve been betting on John Paulson? 

Yeah, that’s what I thought.  Not even Timmah was betting with Paulson back then.   Hindsight being twenty-twenty, though, let’s throw them all in jail now.   I’ve been in this business 20-years and I could’ve been in it 200… the story remains the same.  Chock full of losers looking to blame someone else.  Step off and take responsibility for your decisions.

Or just get the hell out.

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Meanwhile, Transport leader and king United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] made a giant move last week and only pulled back a little off of it with Friday’s mess.   Recognize, I believe it will pull back more with this long expected blow off we have expected, and we should experience more of this week.    But I also think it shows we’ve got more to go in this retardiculous (sic) market runup into the 2010 elections.  

Here’s where I think the buypoint for UPS should be:

This should also become a signal to you of when the market as a whole will begin to recover.  The Transports always lead, Charles Dow has yet to be wrong in over 100 years, and he’s been my sherpa for some of the worst market conditions we’ve experienced since the Depression.  

Put your faith in Chuck, watch United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] and look for gold and silver in extremis.  

My best to you all.

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Everything’s breaking gizzards these days except [[TLT]] , so why not get exceptionally “outre”  in your picking and “dabble in the exotics” as they say down in Derby Land? 

By “exotics” I don’t mean trifectas and daily doubles, but rather palladium and land banks in the form of [[PAL]] and The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] , respectively.

Truthfully, these aren’t exotic at all, and are ony further reflection of the deranged printing press inclinations of Sir Ben of Bern-yankee.  Why do you fight the Fed?  Why do you do it?  Rather, you should be buying palladium dogs like Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] and investing in Florida real estate that won’t be developed until the Baby Boomers are all safely in their crypts.

No worries, they are breaking out, and that’s all that matters in the end, no?  Come see [[PAL]] and then Joey.

 

Then there’s Mr. The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] , who’s really punched the number after breaking out of that long term downtrend line I pointed out a few weeks back.  How may of you took advantage?   Propitious that this is the season of Doubting Thomas, no?  

Here’s the line — “hard assets are moving again,” because the currency is dropping out of sight.   If [[UUP]] continues to drop, these are two more weapons for your bag.    Keep them secret, keep them safe.

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PS — Don’t forget about Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] even though I sold some of my exposure in these the other day.   These are “put away for the long term” stocks (especially CREE, which is best in class).  Same goes for recently beaten upon Monsanto Company [[MON]] .    Take this hammering in stride and nibble vociferously.  Long term, there’s no one who can match their IP assets.

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