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There’s a lot of excitement on the blogosphere and within our own confines.   Now is not the time to lose one’s head.  EXK is an excellent long term investment.

Its time, however, is not yet come.   The dollar will die, and the precious metals will return ascendant.   However, this bull will shake you like a terrier on a sewer rat.   It has not been and it will not ever be an easy bull.

If you want to pile in on something, drunken sailor style, go with the very tiny market phantom metal stocks like REE or AVL.   Silver and gold are longer in the tooth than Yukon Cornelius.  Good DAY, sir.

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Every chart I look at is registering overbought like a mother. Doesn’t mean that we can’t eke out some more gains here. I just wouldn’t bank on a big run, that’s all.

I may get some TZA this week, or QID, or perhaps even some SPY puts for the first time in an age.  You know how bullish I’ve been these past months since early September, so you know this is a serious admonition…

Get hedged, pledge.
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Sorry Florida fans, we’ve got your “Urban Meyer Magic” right here in the Lou, and he’s not going anywhere.

(At least not this year)

No, seriously, though… do you think it’s a coincidence that The University of Florida, with the best recruiting classes over the last ten plus years, bar none, sucked balls this year without Defensive Coordinator Charlie Strong?  

And do you believe it a coincidence that Florida head coach Urban Meyer has decided to resign again this year, and flee back to the bosom of his family and “good health?”  C’mon.

I happen to think it’s no coincidence, especially as Charlie Strong has managed to not only make the Cards bowl eligible in his first year as head coach (after 27 years as an assistant at various racist SEC-Conference schools), but also to win their first bowl since winning the 2007 Orange Bowl four years ago (with former, now Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino), 31-28 over Southern Mississippi.

Okay, so it was the Beef O’ Brannigans Beer & Cheesenutz and Light Draft Bowl, but you have to start somewhere right?  And that “Florida Magic” —  which really stemmed from Charlie’s ability to recruit fine young men from Florida –has already begun to bear fruit.  Note this week’s news — as Louisville has landed it’s first five star recruit, Teddy Bridgewater of Northern Miami, since hometown boy RB Michael Bush (now with the Raiders), signed seven years ago.   Here’s the skinny:

Miami Northwestern quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, a five-star recruit who is widely considered to be one of the best dual threat quarterback prospects in the county, announced his commitment to coach Charlie Strong and the Louisville Cardinals earlier today. Bridgewater, a one-time Miami commit who reopened his options after Shannon’s termination, made it clear that the chance to get on the field early was the biggest factor in his decision.

 

That’s right, they stole this guy from “The U” — Miami University — his own hometown school.  Now that’s strong… that’s Charlie Strong.   Looking forward to watching my Cards continue to kick ass until the SEC steals Charlie back, swallowing crow on their 27 year mistake.  I fear will ultimately be our porridge, and am resigned to it.

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Speaking of “resigned to our porridge,” I am ultimately resigned to a pullback here, and have begun hedging my large PM positions with sold “in the money” calls on my largest pieces.

I sold 80 $34 strike February calls for SLW today, for example.   I also have written call orders in for EXK, ANV, IAG and several others that have yet to fill.  I also sold 10k shares of GSS today at $4.79, which was 45% of my position.  

I plan to keep on with these moves as we go to year end.  I am writing calls because I’ve already taken egregious gains this year, and would like to defer any additional taxable gains into next year.  Also, I would like to maintain my “core position” in many PM positions despite my inclinations toward lower prices in the near term.  Silver, however is looking like it will pull back in dreadful fashion.   Be apprised.

One other thing, I must take the opportunity to brag on my “rare earth metals” position in AVARF, which I will likely trim by 30 to 50% tomorrow.  After holding for about a month, that sucker took off today with a newly announced AMEX listing.  Sometimes it’s as simple as that.

Best to you all, my gente.

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I have finally finished my 2011 Predictions.  That exercise, combined with the Worst Giant Loss in Two Centuries has sapped my creative energies and limited my blogging potential.

Let’s leave it tonight with my assurance that I will be hedging many of my positions again this week.  The dollar is struggling, but so too are gold and silver, which tell me that we are at a  short term peaking period.   I don’t think we get to the end of the year unscathed.

Prepare ye, and good night.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4FGvMdhG80&feature=related 450 300]

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Today was an interesting day, as I sat and ate samiches whilst ordering my sons around as they attempted to clear my ice-bound driveway, and  thereby freeing me to do my “early” Christmas shopping.  

A roommate of mine with four sons came up with an adage one day with which I have come to heartily concur.  It states,  “Four boys equals one man.”  He now lives in Rochester and had addressed the adage specifically to snow shoveling.  Very appropos, therefore, for me today.  

Since only two of my sons are old enough to tackle hard work tasks like ice clearing, in effect I had one half a man working out there today.  The fact that I had to take over, thereby endangering my back, but also assuring that I’d get to the malls before midnight tonight, is a testament to my friend’s adage.  Truly, young teenage males are good for almost nothing save extraordinary food consumption at unprecedented rates. 

Please let me know if you need a guest for your seven course holiday meals.

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With regaurd (sic) to the stocks (sic) market, I have heaped praises on Le Magistrate’s choice of CMI for over a year now.   It has been a paragon of automotive (and trucking) ascendency in this lamely recovering economy, and even today it shows little signs of pausing.  Nevertheless, we must be on our guard to pick up anything we can on a retrace, hence the following chart:

Another auto sector darling that has made even more auspicious returns in the same period that CMI has is the head of the Collective, the Borg Warner (BWA).   Note how they have assimilated capital returns in an ever efficient, if soulless Locutus-like way over the same period as CMI….

I like this action almost as much as I like UPS looking to broach new all time highs.  But we must be patient, and let the trade “come in” a bit, as le Magistrate would say.  You can note my target levels, if you so choose.

Also, I think the PM’s have made an valiant effort to maintain here, which usually means there are buyers dying to get in.   With that in mind, I bit the bullet and went to a 60% position on EXK, with a 5 k purchase today in the low $6.90’s.

The dollar is down as I type this, so perhaps my faithfulness shall be rewarded.  Until tomorrow then, stay assimilated, Borg Collective plebs.

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It wasn’t just Rick Pitino’s formerly unblemished Cardinal Birds team that went down today to the scrappy Drexel Dragons of Philly, it was a plethora of formerly high flyers. One great example is the LED players CREE and VECO, which got swung from their armpits into a molten lake of lava today.

Like my Cards, these high fliers were tired, and yes, a little bit cocky with their recent gains. Only the grace of God saved me from getting left standing by the record players on these two. I was trimming recent runners, and had only a bit left of these two, so I decided to take profits on the rest over the last week, the last of which I sold yesterday, as reported in The PPT.

I think what happened to CREE….

And to it’s close sister VECO….

… all goes to show that the momo is starting to come out of the markets.   I again implore you to continue trimming back risk assets such as these “tip of the iceberg” plays.

Best to you.

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