And now for a pariah I have been watching for months, just as I have crude oil and the chart to watch (see first post).
This is the largest retail financial intermediary ready to go from single digits to double digits in Putinstan. I recall Jim Rogers talking about parking his money in the biggest bank for it would be the last to go. Well, we’ve had sanctions, dropping oil and who knows what kind of palace intrigue going on and people still gotta go to the bank. We still need to deal with fiat (relax, I have the “yellow dog” tucked away in a bank vault just like those of you who have it buried in the backyard along with your cache of unlicensed armament but I still need paper money too.) And yes, I’ve noticed bitcoin (hello capital flight + liquidity seeks the inflating asset) but let me return to this idea.
From all accounts this has been “cheap” and for good reason. Price is finally saying, well hold on tovarisch this purge might be over.
That’s my boring 2 indicator and 2 arbitrary metrics format, the 10 and 50 week SMA and ADX and RSI. Could there be a selloff/consolidation/etc etc? Yes. But I also think there is potential for accumulation for those who were to terrified a few months ago when there was a Swan Lake Dive along with black gold 12 months ago.
That’s the disreputable stock market proxy for crude oil. ETFs and ETNs have flaws but we’ll use this to show the dance these two had.
An aside on crude, which you ALL know about already but it has to be brought up.
That’s another inadequate proxy, the USD Index. It’s NOT the trade weighted USD but it will have to do to demonstrate just how much of this dance has had a third partner.
That which has been in disrepute becomes forgotten and there are fewer and fewer sellers. Pariahs become paragons and vice-versa. Notice how many leaders and heroes have been whacked? Notice how many “legitimacy” questions hover over so many investments? Whether it’s about scrip pipelines. the likelihood of FDA approval and success, of justifying yet another round of funding or whether or not one’s products were compliant, there is nothing like the greater dance of hero and heel, paragon and pariah.
This bank is big, cheap and not going anywhere, just like the sad scraps of savings left within their digital vaults after so much damage. This one has been tossed aside like rotten fruit. The seeds buried under all that selling and disgust could provide strange, lucrative fruit.
(Note on painting: 1986 Ripening Pears and Kremlin)
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Great post.
Thanks very much Option Addict, I appreciate that.